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The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis
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Maize, wheat and rice production potential changes in China under the background of climate change
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“Yield gap analyses by many scholars indicate that Chinese rice yields have been approaching their biophysical potential ceiling in recent years (Cassman et al., 2003; Lobell et al., 2009; Licker et al., 2010; Neumann et al., 2010; Van Wart et al., 2013).”
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Scope for improved eco-efficiency varies among diverse cropping systems
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“There have been many quantitative analyses of yield gaps (3, 5, 7, 9, 10), with an emerging consensus in their determination.”
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“Inefficient crop management may cause the actual yield to deviate from the potential yield—this difference is called the yield gap (van Ittersum and Rabbinge, 1997; Tittonell et al., 2008; Neumann et al., 2010).”
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“Much of the low productivity can be attributed to limited market access, resulting in reduced availability of fertilisers, pesticides, and machinery (Neumann et al 2010).”
BackgroundMolecular Breeding for Improved Second Generation Bioenergy Crops
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“Moreover, to decrease yield gaps necessitate investments in infrastructure, education and agronomic research, as well as supportive agricultural policies (Neumann et al., 2010; Tilman et al., 2011; George, 2014).”
BackgroundTracking the spatio-temporal change of cropping intensity in China during 2000–2015
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“Cropping intensity is an important indicator of agricultural land use efficiency (Rudel et al 2009, Licker et al 2010, Neumann et al 2010).”
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“For non-irrigated conditions, the YG can be defined as the difference between Yw and average yield for that location-year (Neumann et al., 2010).”
BackgroundReducing the maize yield gap in Ethiopia: Decomposition and policy simulation
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“analysis are the Cobb-Douglas and translog production function (Henderson et al., 2016; Neumann et al., 2010).”
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“For example, in a global assessment Neumann et al. (2010) estimate that crop yields are between 50 and 64% of their maximum potential, which translates to potential yield improvements of between 56 and 100%.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialYield Gap, Indigenous Nutrient Supply and Nutrient Use Efficiency for Maize in China
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“Inefficient crop management may cause the actual yield to deviate from the potential yield—this difference is called the yield gap (van Ittersum and Rabbinge, 1997; Tittonell et al., 2008; Neumann et al., 2010).”
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Declining yield potential and shrinking yield gaps of maize in the North China Plain
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“The SFA methodology has sound theoretical underpinnings in production economics and has been used in other published yield gap assessments (Henderson et al., 2016; Neumann et al., 2010) as have other similar production frontier methods (Baldos and Hertel, 2012; Nin-Pratt et al., 2011).”
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“…globally with varied results, suggesting variations in skill due to factors like spatio-temporal scales used, level of surface heterogeneity, crop management practices, and model initialization, amongst others (Jones et al., 2000; Lawless and Semenov, 2005; Neumann et al., 2010; Shin et al., 2010).”
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“The results of Neumann et al. (2010) show that on average the present actual yields of wheat, maize, and rice are 64%, 50%, and 64% of their potential yields, respectively.”
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“Besides reducing water losses, other improvements in land management are necessary to ensure food security and mitigate environmental impacts of agriculture (de Fraiture and Wichelns 2010; Neumann et al. 2010; Mueller et al. 2012).”
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“These figures align with earlier reports that yield gaps are small (20 - 30% of Yp) in Northwest Europe, intermediate (30 - 50% of Yp) in Southeast Asia and large ( > 50% of Yw) in East Africa (Assefa et al., 2020; Schils et al., 2018; Stuart et al., 2016; Neumann et al., 2010).”
ResultMinimizing the ecological footprint of food: closing yield and efficiency gaps simultaneously?
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“Yield and efficiency gaps show different spatial patterns when analysed globally [46].”
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“For example, the yield gaps are generally large in developing and transitional countries, in which substantial limitations in agricultural management, infrastructure, education, and agricultural policies often impede increases in land productivity (Neumann et al 2010, Tilman et al 2011).”
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“For example, global actual yields for maize are reported to be around 50% of the potential yield (Neumann et al. 2010) against 20% in Africa, which is due to biophysical and management conditions (Lobell et al. 2009).”
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“In spite of the huge increase in wheat production since Bthe Green Revolution^ (Evenson 2003), the present yield is estimated to be only 64 % of the potential yield (Neumann et al. 2010).”
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“We test different levels of global yield increases by assuming relative (percentage-based) decreases in the global yield gap (potential minus actual yield, see also Foley et al., 2011; Godfray et al., 2010; Neumann et al., 2010).”
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“The most significant yield gaps distributed at many parts of Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe (Licker et al., 2010; Neumann et al., 2010; Yu et al., 2011).”
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“Concurrently, despite current yield in some regions has reached the threshold of 80% of their yield potential [52], great yield gaps still exist in all of the three main cereal crops [8,48].”
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Wheat yield is not causally related to the duration of the growing season
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“, 2013), higher yield per unit area and time must match the expected increase in wheat demand (Neumann et al., 2010; Slafer et al., 2022).”
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Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?
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“Our study improves the previous understanding that China’s rice yield has been approaching its biophysical potential ceiling, resulting in the recent yield stagnation (Neuman et al., 2010; Van Wart et al., 2013), and argues that climate-smart agriculture could raise the biophysical potential ceiling, helping to revers…”
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“…to illustrate this is the Cobb Douglas production function commonly found in economics of small firms but also in agricultural production (from Neumann et al. 74 ), ln ð q Þ = X where ln ð q Þ is the logarithm of the production of the grid cell in question, X i are the different production…”
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“Concurrently, global grain yields have increased (Neumann et al. 2010), as have rates of crop and non-farm diversification.”
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“For example, in addition to ensuring that nutrients such as phosphorous and potassium are supplied commensurately with N, it may also be necessary to improve the infrastructure for harvesting, transporting and storing crops 52 .”
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“Global yield gaps have so far been studied (Licker et al., 2010; Mueller et al., 2012; Neumann et al., 2010) in a”
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“…has dramatically increased grain production in developing countries, but yield records in the dominant food-producing regions indicate a large gap between the current and potential yields for maize (Neumann et al., 2010), which is an important crop because it contributes to food security in China.”
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“The possible reason for the significant difference among adjusted R(2) was that per unit area grain yield may be improved by increasing agricultural material inputs and technical progress, such as agricultural infrastructure development, chemical fertilizer, and good seed (Neumann et al., 2010; Zhou et al., 2012).”
BackgroundSugarcane yield gap: can it be determined at national level with a simple agrometeorological model?
Monteiro, L. A., & Sentelhas, P. C. (2017) · Australian Journal of Agricultural Research · doi:10.1071/cp16334 · Cited by 51
Fertilizing Crops to Improve Human Health: A Scientific Review
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Global agronomy, a new field of research. A review
Makowski, D., Nesme, T., Papy, F., & Doré, T. (2013) · Agronomy for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1007/s13593-013-0179-0 · Cited by 50
“Yield gap values are useful for identifying geographic areas in which yields could be increased, for determining the main factors limiting yield and defining future research priorities (Casanova et al. 1999; Doré et al. 2008; Licker et al. 2010; Neumann et al. 2010; Prost et al. 2008).”
BackgroundJohnston, M., Licker, R., Foley, J. A., Holloway, T., Mueller, N. D., Barford, C. C., & Kucharik, C. J. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034028 · Cited by 49
African Lessons on Climate Change Risks for Agriculture
Müller, C. (2013) · Annual Review of Nutrition · doi:10.1146/annurev-nutr-071812-161121 · Cited by 49
Self-citationRutten, M., Achterbosch, T. J., de Boer, I. J. M., Cuaresma, J. C., Geleijnse, J. M., Havlík, P., Heckelei, T., Ingram, J. S. I., Leip, A., Marette, S., et al. (2016) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2016.10.014 · Cited by 58
“10 understanding sustainable intensification paths, potentials and places as well as interactions between plant and animal production, the interplay between biophysical, managerial, economic and political drivers of food production and its sustainability are analysed based on quantitative methods for livestock, fish a…”
BackgroundGou, F., Yin, W., Hong, Y., van der Werf, W., Chai, Q., Heerink, N., & van Ittersum, M. K. (2016) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2016.11.009 · Cited by 49
Agricultural trade impacts global phosphorus use and partial productivity
Bai, Z., Liu, L., Obersteiner, M. H., Mosnier, A., Chen, X., Yuan, Z., & Ma, L. (2023) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-023-00822-w · Cited by 48
Global warming, grain production and its efficiency: Case study of major grain production region
Wang, P., Deng, X., & Jiang, S. (2018) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.05.022 · Cited by 48
Wang, J., Zhang, J., Bai, Y., Zhang, S., Yang, S., & Yao, F. (2019) · Field Crops Research · doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2019.107682 · Cited by 48
Historical simulation of maize water footprints with a new global gridded crop model ACEA
Mialyk, O., Schyns, J. F., Booij, M. J., & Hogeboom, R. J. (2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-26-923-2022 · Cited by 47
A modeling framework for the strategic design of local fresh-food systems
Flores, H., & Villalobos, J. R. (2017) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.12.001 · Cited by 47
Khanal, U., Wilson, C., Shankar, S., Hoang, V.-N. V., & Lee, B. L. (2018) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.02.045 · Cited by 47
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Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Crop Disaster Area in China
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“[31] used econometric methods and spatial analysis to explore the maximum yield, yield gap, and the efficiency of wheat and other crops.”
MethodMandemaker, M., Bakker, M., & Stoorvogel, J. J. (2011) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-04142-160208 · Cited by 46
“Although some argue that there is a vast potential for yield increase to meet the required production increase (Neumann et al. 2010), the question remains whether or not this increase in yields is likely to happen.”
BackgroundApplication of the APSIM model to exploit G × E × M interactions for maize improvement in Ethiopia
Seyoum, S., Rachaputi, R. C. N., Chauhan, Y. S., Prasanna, B. M., & Fekybelu, S. (2017) · Field Crops Research · doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2017.12.012 · Cited by 49
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Variation in Cropping Intensity in Northern China from 1982 to 2012 Based on GIMMS-NDVI Data
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“[55] hypothesized that the dramatic increase in global grain production over the past 50 years was mainly a consequence of intensified land management and introduction of new technologies.”
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A social-ecological network approach to quantify the supply-demand-flow of grain ecosystem service
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The determinants of crop yields in Uganda: what is the role of climatic and non-climatic factors?
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Metadata
- Authors
- Neumann, K., Verburg, P. H., Stehfest, E., & Müller, C.
- Affiliations
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Neumann, Kathleen
- Venue
- Agricultural Systems
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2010-06
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 316-326
- ISSN
- 0308-521X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2148170135
- Cited by
- 587
- References
- 75
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 60 · 2018: 65 · 2017: 45 · 2016: 34 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 26
- FWCI
- 38.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- research.wur.nl
- Locations
- Agricultural Systems (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Digital Academic REpository of VU University Amsterdam (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Efficiency Analysis Using DEA
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Economics and Practices
- Keywords
- yield gap, agricultural intensification, production efficiency, wheat, maize, rice, irrigation, market access, agricultural labor, slope, land management, spatial analysis
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