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The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis
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“Licker et al. (2010) and Neumann et al. (2010) did not discriminate between Yp and Yw—just one value for maximum yield has been estimated.”
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“Previous global, national, and regional estimates of Yp or Yw are mostly based on weather data derived from monthly means or simulated climatic years based on historical variances (Andarzian et al., 2008; Deryng et al., 2011; Neumann et al., 2010; Nonhebel, 1994; Priya and Shibasaki, 2001; van Bussel et al., 2011).”
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“…parts of Africa, Asia, Latin America and East Europe current yields for many crops are only half or less of potential yields (Licker et al., 2010; Neumann et al., 2010; Pradhan et al., 2015) because of factors such as poor soil quality, yield losses due to pests, diseases, weeds and poor access…”
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“This is particularly the case for Western and Central Europe, where fertile regions are characterised by long land-use histories, an early industrialisation of land use (Jepsen et al. 2015), low yield gaps (Neumann et al. 2010; Licker et al. 2010), and a quick adoption of the latest technologies.”
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“However, these areas have a large improvement potential due to a large yield gap between current and attainable yields (Neumann et al 2010, Mueller et al 2012).”
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“Such depictions of an asymmetrically under-yielding planet with a ‘yield gap’ (Neumann et al. 2010) must be replaced, I argue, with the recognition that enormous volumes of grains and oilseeds are being inefficiently cycled through concentrated livestock to serve an asymmetrically ‘meaty’ planet, a…”
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“These variations in crop yields are related to market accessibility, purchasing power/income, agricultural work force, and terrain factors (Neumann et al., 2010).”
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“Thus, the high energy input and management strategies make agriculture more productive in developed as in developing countries [29,30].”
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“Yield gaps represent an unexploited potential that was not considered in this study, but has extensively been examined (Licker et al., 2010; Neumann et al., 2010; Mueller et al., 2012; Pradhan et al., 2015).”
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“Neumann et al. (2010) reported that current yield was 64% of attainable yield for winter wheat at global scale, indicating a larger yield gap than we observed for Oklahoma.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialRauw, W. M., Rydhmer, L., Kyriazakis, I., Øverland, M., Gilbert, H., Dekkers, J. C. M., Hermesch, S., Bouquet, A., Izquierdo, E. G., Louveau, I., et al. (2020) · Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture · doi:10.1002/jsfa.10338 · Cited by 143
Meeting global land restoration and protection targets: What would the world look like in 2050?
Wolff, S., Schrammeijer, E. A., Schulp, C. J. E., & Verburg, P. H. (2018) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.002 · Cited by 130
“This efficiency ratio is based on global maps that were constructed based on stochastic production functions, that represent the maximum yield of major crop types (maize, wheat and rice), given environmental conditions (Neumann et al., 2010).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMeasuring agricultural land-use intensity – A global analysis using a model-assisted approach
Dietrich, J. P., Schmitz, C., Müller, C., Fader, M., Lotze‐Campen, H., & Popp, A. (2012) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.03.002 · Cited by 136
“Compared to a global yield-gap analysis by Neumann et al. 2010) most regions show a similar behavior in land-use intensiies ( ) and efficiencies (yield gap analysis) for maize (see Appendix for the -values of maize).”
Self-citationSustainable wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) production in saline fields: a review
Miransari, M., & Smith, D. L. (2019) · Critical Reviews in Biotechnology · doi:10.1080/07388551.2019.1654973 · Cited by 127
“One possible alternative is the use of resources, which are less useable and restrict the production of crop plants, in saline fields [30].”
BackgroundVerburg, P. H., Ellis, E. C., & Letourneau, A. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034019 · Cited by 125
“In a global-scale analysis of the spatial distribution of grain yields Neumann et al (2010) used the market influence index presented in this letter as one of the factors explaining the gap between actual yield and the highest attainable yield (as defined by a frontier function).”
BackgroundSelf-citationDietrich, J. P., Schmitz, C., Lotze‐Campen, H., Popp, A., & Müller, C. (2013) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.003 · Cited by 122
“The main advantage in this context over other measures, like the yield gap analysis [55], is that any yield increase due to improved technology will be reflected by an increase in τ , but may be at least partially undetected by the yield gap, as the potential yield rises as well and the gap remains constant.”
BackgroundSelf-citationElahi, E., Cui, W., Zhang, H., & Abid, M. (2019) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117900 · Cited by 121
Wang, S., Guan, K., Wang, Z., Ainsworth, E. A., Zheng, T., Townsend, P. A., Li, K., Moller, C. A., Wu, G., & Jiang, C. (2020) · Journal of Experimental Botany · doi:10.1093/jxb/eraa432 · Cited by 119
Drivers of changes in agricultural intensity in Europe
Levers, C., Butsic, V., Verburg, P., Müller, D., & Kuemmerle, T. (2016) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.08.013 · Cited by 117
“Global grain yields in the year 2000 were higher in areas closer to optimal temperature and higher precipitation, while higher efficiencies in grain production were related to higher fertiliser application, the presence of irrigation, market influence, and better accessibility (Neumann et al., 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationPlank, B., Eisenmenger, N., Schaffartzik, A., & Wiedenhofer, D. (2018) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b06133 · Cited by 123
A land-use systems approach to represent land-use dynamics at continental and global scales
Letourneau, A., Verburg, P. H., & Stehfest, E. (2012) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.01.007 · Cited by 118
“There is no consistent spatial data on anthropogenic agricultural management like fertilizer and pesticide inputs (Neumann et al., 2010).”
BackgroundSelf-citationKok, M. T. J., Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., van Eerdt, M., Janse, J., Mandryk, M., Kram, T., Lazarova, T., Meijer, J., van Oorschot, M., et al. (2018) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.003 · Cited by 117
“Many authors emphasize the potential of technological improvements, as was assumed in the Global Technology pathway, especially in regions where potentials are not being used completely (closing yield gaps) by applying existing technologies and improved practices (Foley et al., 2011; Neumann et al., 2010; Tilman et al…”
BackgroundStuch, B., Alcamo, J. M., & Schaldach, R. (2020) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2020.1760771 · Cited by 119
“In addition, sustainable agricultural intensification (Jane et al., 2019; Tilman et al., 2011) can intensify agricultural production to higher yield levels (Neumann et al., 2010).”
BackgroundAddressing the yield gap in rainfed crops: a review
Anderson, W. K., Johansen, C., & Siddique, K. H. M. (2016) · Agronomy for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1007/s13593-015-0341-y · Cited by 114
“Simulation models have also been combined with data from satellite images to assess the potential for yield improvement at the regional or national scale (Lobell and OrtizMonasterio 2006; Neumann et al. 2010; Hochman et al. 2102; Lobell 2013; Oliver and Robertson 2013; vanWart et al. 2013).”
MethodLiu, B., Chen, X., Meng, Q., Yang, H. S., & Wart, J. V. (2017) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.02.035 · Cited by 111
The growth and yield of a wet-seeded rice-ratoon rice system in central China
Dong, H., Chen, Q., Wang, W., Peng, S., Huang, J., Cui, K., & Nie, L. (2017) · Field Crops Research · doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2017.04.003 · Cited by 110
“However, yield gap analyses revealed that rice yields have been approaching their biophysical potential ceiling in recent years (Cassman et al., 2003; Lobell et al., 2009; Licker et al., 2010; Neumann et al., 2010; van Wart et al., 2013).”
BackgroundManaging the Nutrition of Plants and People
White, P. J., Broadley, M. R., & Gregory, P. J. (2012) · Applied and Environmental Soil Science · doi:10.1155/2012/104826 · Cited by 111
“Global aggregated yield gaps are currently estimated to be about 60% for maize, 47% for rice, and 43% for wheat [48].”
Bai, Y., Deng, X., Jiang, S., Zhao, Z., & Miao, Y. (2018) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.04.003 · Cited by 110
Soil conservation in the 21st century: why we need smart agricultural intensification
Govers, G., Merckx, R., van Wesemael, B., & Oost, K. V. (2017) · SOIL · doi:10.5194/soil-3-45-2017 · Cited by 109
“This is especially true for sub-Saharan Africa where yields are still abysmally low (Neumann et al., 2010).”
Zhang, D., Yang, W., Kang, D., & Zhang, H. (2022) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106466 · Cited by 104
Paudel, D., Neupane, R. C., Sigdel, S., Poudel, P., & Khanal, A. R. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15108280 · Cited by 104
Qi, X., Fu, Y., Wang, R. Y., Ng, C. N., Dang, H., & He, Y. (2017) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.009 · Cited by 102
Low yield gap of winter wheat in the North China Plain
Li, K., Yang, X., Liu, Z., Zhang, T., Lu, S., & Liu, Y. (2014) · European Journal of Agronomy · doi:10.1016/j.eja.2014.04.007 · Cited by 101
The challenges of sustainably feeding a growing planet
Hertel, T. (2015) · Food Security · doi:10.1007/s12571-015-0440-2 · Cited by 115
“…energy prices play an important role in shaping energy-related exploration, supply, innovation and consumption, it is less-well appreciated how important energy prices can be in shaping global land use – particularly in the current era of close linkages between the energy and agricultural markets…”
BackgroundUnravelling the variability and causes of smallholder maize yield gaps in Ethiopia
Assefa, B. T., Chamberlin, J., Reidsma, P., Silva, . V., & van Ittersum, M. K. (2019) · Food Security · doi:10.1007/s12571-019-00981-4 · Cited by 100
Creating a Sustainable Food Future
Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., & Matthews, E. (2019) · Cited by 100
Metadata
- Authors
- Neumann, K., Verburg, P. H., Stehfest, E., & Müller, C.
- Affiliations
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Neumann, Kathleen
- Venue
- Agricultural Systems
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2010-06
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 316-326
- ISSN
- 0308-521X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2148170135
- Cited by
- 587
- References
- 75
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 60 · 2018: 65 · 2017: 45 · 2016: 34 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 26
- FWCI
- 38.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- research.wur.nl
- Locations
- Agricultural Systems (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Digital Academic REpository of VU University Amsterdam (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Efficiency Analysis Using DEA
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Economics and Practices
- Keywords
- yield gap, agricultural intensification, production efficiency, wheat, maize, rice, irrigation, market access, agricultural labor, slope, land management, spatial analysis
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