Cited by 587Efficiency Analysis Using DEAClimate change impacts on agricultureAgricultural Economics and Practices

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The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis

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Neumann, Kathleen, Verburg, Peter H., Stehfest, Elke, Müller, Christoph·2010·Agricultural Systems

DOI 10.1016/j.agsy.2010.02.004

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“In this study, the effects of BPA on the chlorophyll fluorescence reaction in three kinds of global economic crops (rice, soybean, and maize) (Neumann et al. 2010; Zhao et al. 2015) and two kinds of global most consumed vegetables (lettuce and tomato) (Mamatha et al.”
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“Yield gaps in intensive arable cropping systems of Northwest Europe are among the smallest worldwide (van Ittersum et al., 2013; Mueller et al., 2012; Neumann et al., 2010).”
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“In recent years, enormous progress has been made in maize agriculture practices, and it consists of genetic progress, development of cultivation technologies, and improvement of quality parameters [19,20].”
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Assessment of driving factors for yield and productivity developments in crop and cattle production as key to increasing sustainable biomass potentials
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“Based on literature, the drivers of yield developments are classi-ﬁ ed into three types (Anderson 2010 ; Hengsdijk and Langeveld 2010 ; Neumann et al. 2010 ; Piesse and Thirtle 2010 ; Smith et al. 2010 ; de Wit et al. 2011 ): technological/ management, economic, and institutional.”
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“…and institutional factors such as government support programmes, strength of extension services and access to credit are all elements explored in these papers (Baldos and Hertel, 2012; de Koeijer et al., 1999; Hoang, 2013; Neumann et al., 2010; Schreinemachers, 2005; van Dijk et al., 2012).”
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Quantifying the Potential Yield and Yield Gap of Chinese Wheat Production
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“DEA and SFA, compared to each other (author’s elaboration on the basis Neumann et al. (2010)) And the technical efficiency is the ratio of observed cost to the minimum potential cost defined by the frontier.”
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Liu, H., Xiong, W., Mottaleb, K. A., Krupnik, T. J., Burgueño, J. A., Pequeno, D. N. L., & Wu, W. (2021) · European Journal of Agronomy · doi:10.1016/j.eja.2021.126370 · Cited by 35
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“25 Agricultural intensification which reduces the gap between potential yield and actual yield 26 (Byerlee et al., 2014; van Ittersum et al., 2013; Neumann et al., 2010; Wilkes et al., 2013) can 27 contribute to land sparing.”
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“The demonstration of yield gaps between potential yield and actual farmers’ yield for cereal crops provides an essential framework within which to prioritize research and policy efforts aimed at reducing these gaps (Abeledo et al. 2008; Neumann et al. 2010; Laborte et al. 2012; Mueller et al. 2012).”
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“Analysis of yield gap and yield potential is an important basis for improving crop production [35].”
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“It has been suggested that yield gains can easily be achieved by applying existing knowledge and adopting available technologies for narrowing the existing large gaps between potential and farmers’ actual yields [5].”
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“Rice, wheat, and corn are the three pillars of the human diet and are closely related to human nutrition (Neumann et al. 2010).”
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Mazzilli, S. R., Ernst, O., de Mello, V. P., & Pérez, C. A. (2016) · European Journal of Agronomy · doi:10.1016/j.eja.2016.01.007 · Cited by 27
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Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?
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“, 2019), maize (Neumann et al., 2010; Grassini et al., 2011; Egli and Hatfield, 2014; Liu et al., 2017; Balboa et al., 2019), and soybean (Grassini et al.”
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Impacts of REDD+ payments on a coupled human-natural system in Amazonia
West, T. A. P., Grogan, K. A., Swisher, M. E., Caviglia‐Harris, J. L., Sills, E. O., Roberts, D. A., Harris, D. W., & Putz, F. E. (2018) · Ecosystem Services · doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.08.008 · Cited by 25
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“productive agricultural area can have substantial impacts on regional and global food chains [51].”
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The biophysical and socio-economic dimension of yield gaps in the southern Amazon – A bio-economic modelling approach
Hampf, A. C., Carauta, M., Latynskiy, E., Libera, A. A. D., Monteiro, L. A., Sentelhas, P. C., Troost, C., Berger, T., & Nendel, C. (2018) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.009 · Cited by 26
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Palliwoda, J., Fischer, J., Felipe‐Lucia, M. R., Palomo, I., Neugarten, R., Büermann, A., Price, M. F., Torralba, M., Eigenbrod, F., Mitchell, M. G. E., et al. (2021) · Ecosystems and People · doi:10.1080/26395916.2021.1968501 · Cited by 27
“Soil suitability for grassland production has also been shown to positively influence the distribution of dairy cattle in linear regression models (Neumann et al. 2010).”
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“Global grain production has increased dramatically during the past fifty years (Neumann et al., 2010).”
Background
Soils and Food Security: Challenges and Opportunities
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Economic Efficiency and Internal Competitive Advantages of Grain Production in the Central Region of Ukraine
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“The production threshold is thus the lower margin of the production price (Kovalenko and Kovalenko, 2019; Kuzmenko et al., 2016; Ivanyshyn et al., 2018; Neumann et al., 2010).”
Background
Spatiotemporal changes in the state of food security across mainland China during 1990–2015: A multi‐scale analysis
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Improving wheat productivity reveals an emerging yield gap associated with short-term change in atmospheric humidity
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Cropping system intensification for smallholder farmers in coastal zone of West Bengal, India: A socio-economic evaluation
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“Research recommendations on cropping system intensification in coastal zones are often drawn from the improved yields and return of the crops, based on researchers’ managed experimental findings (Dillon and Hardaker, 1993; Childs and Kiawu, 2009; Neumann et al., 2010; Fisher, 2015), ignoring the socio-economic suitabi…”
Background
Will the world run out of land? A Kaya-type decomposition to study past trends of cropland expansion
Huber, V., Neher, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Höfner, K., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024011 · Cited by 21
“At the same time large yield gaps wait to be closed in many countries that are currently lacking adequate technologies [25].”
Background
Climate adaptation imperatives: untapped global maize yield opportunities
Gustafson, D. I., Jones, J. W., Porter, C. H., Hyman, G. G., Edgerton, M. D., Gocken, T., Shryock, J. J., Doane, M., Budreski, K., Stone, C., et al. (2014) · International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability · doi:10.1080/14735903.2013.867694 · Cited by 20
Impacts of Urbanization on the Net Primary Productivity and Cultivated Land Change in Shandong Province, China
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“It will be necessary to ensure a secure food supply with further agricultural intensification because of the limited agricultural area available for cultivation (Neumann et al. 2012).”
Background
HarvestStat Africa – Harmonized Subnational Crop Statistics for Sub-Saharan Africa
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Ester Boserup’s Legacy on Sustainability
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Spatio-temporal analysis of dynamics and future scenarios of anthropic pressure on biomes in Brazil
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Evaluating Impact of Farmland Recessive Morphology Transition on High-Quality Agricultural Development in China
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Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Simulated Small-Scale Irrigation Intervention: A Case Study in Dimbasinia Watershed, Ghana
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Carbon uptake by European agricultural land is variable, and in many regions could be increased: Evidence from remote sensing, yield statistics and models of potential productivity.
Neumann, M., & Smith, P. (2018) · Science of the Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.268 · Cited by 16
Yield gap analysis and assessment of climate-induced yield trends of irrigated rice in selected provinces of the Philippines
Angulo, C., Becker, M., & Waßmann, R. (2012) · Der Tropenlandwirt · Cited by 19
Food Security: Yield Gap
Beddow, J. M., Hurley, T. M., Pardey, P. G., & Alston, J. M. (2014) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-52512-3.00037-1 · Cited by 19
Predictive value of soil moisture and concurrent variables in the multivariate modelling of cereal yields in water-limited environments
Gaona, J., Benito-Verdugo, P., Martínez‐Fernández, J., González‐Zamora, Á., Almendra-Martín, L., & Herrero-Jiménez, C. M. (2023) · Agricultural Water Management · doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108280 · Cited by 19
Crop production, soil carbon and nutrient balances as affected by fertilisation in a Mollisol agroecosystem
Song, C. Y., Wang, E., Han, X., & Stirzaker, R. J. (2010) · Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10705-010-9401-5 · Cited by 18
“In order to maintain the fertility of the black soil, that amount of nutrients (except the N for soybeans) need to be added by fertilisation every year to support the maximum crop growth, ignoring other atmospheric inputs and leaching, atmospheric or erosion losses (Neumann et al. 2010; Pathak et al. 2010; Wang et al.…”
BackgroundInfluential
Sustainable improvement strategies for summer maize yield, nitrogen use efficiency and greenhouse gas emission intensity in the North China Plain
Wang, H., Ren, H., Han, K. J., He, Q., Zhang, L., Zhao, Y., Liu, Y., Zhang, J., Zhao, B., Ren, B., et al. (2022) · European Journal of Agronomy · doi:10.1016/j.eja.2022.126712 · Cited by 17
Progress and Challenges for Implementation of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Policy on Biotechnology and Biosafety
Waithaka, M., Belay, G., Kyotalimye, M., & Karembu, M. (2015) · Frontiers in Bioengineering and Biotechnology · doi:10.3389/fbioe.2015.00109 · Cited by 17
“In Africa, the yield gap for maize is as high as 80% (Neumann et al., 2010).”
Conceptual and Empirical Approaches to Mapping and Quantifying Land-Use Intensity
Erb, K., Niedertscheider, M., Dietrich, J. P., Schmitz, C., Verburg, P. H., Jepsen, M. R., & Haberl, H. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-8678-2_5 · Cited by 16
“These concepts differ in their conceptualisation, the construction of a measure of reference, and their precise meaning as well as their field of application: (a) the technological efficiency (TE) approach (Licker et al. 2010; Neumann et al. 2010; Verburg et al. 2000), an approach that compares actually achieved yield…”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialSelf-citation
Variations in the Use of Resources for Food: Land, Nitrogen Fertilizer and Food Nexus
Ibarrola‐Rivas, M., & Nonhebel, S. (2016) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su8121322 · Cited by 17
“Therefore, future increase of crop yields will come in combination with the increase of yield-related-inputs such as fertilizer use and irrigation, especially in developing countries [5,6].”
Background
Gender and Rural Livelihoods: Agricultural Commercialization and Farm/Non-Farm Diversification
Djurfeldt, A. A. (2018) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198799283.003.0004 · Cited by 17
Effect of lime water – manure organic fertilizers on the productivity, energy efficiency and profitability of rainfed maize production
Domínguez-Hernández, M. E., Zepeda-Bautista, R., Domínguez‐Hernández, E., Valderrama-Bravo, M. D. C., & Hernández‐Simón, L. M. (2019) · Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science · doi:10.1080/03650340.2019.1616287 · Cited by 17
“farmers education and production enhancing technologies (Neumann et al. 2010; Rapsomanikis 2015).”
Background
Two-Stage Spatiotemporal Time Series Modelling Approach for Rice Yield Prediction & Advanced Agroecosystem Management
Rathod, S., Saha, A. R., Patil, R., Ondrašek, G., Gireesh, C., Anantha, M. S., Rao, D. V. K. N., Bandumula, N., Senguttuvel, P., Swarnaraj, A. K., et al. (2021) · Agronomy · doi:10.3390/agronomy11122502 · Cited by 17
Statistical approaches are inadequate for accurate estimation of yield potential and gaps at regional level
Couëdel, A., Lollato, R. P., Archontoulis, S. V., Tenorio, F. A., Aramburu-Merlos, F., Edreira, J. I. R., & Grassini, P. (2025) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-025-01157-4 · Cited by 17
“To estimate yield potential without the constraints associated with bottom-up modelling approaches, researchers have used statistical methods based on highest Ya as an alternative approach 15–17 .”
Power law scaling and country-level centralization of global agricultural production and trade
Dupas, M.-C., Halloy, J., & Chatzimpiros, P. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac54ca · Cited by 16
Representing justice in global land-use scenarios can align biodiversity benefits with protection from land grabbing
Venier-Cambron, C., Helm, L. T., Malek, Ž., & Verburg, P. H. (2024) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.03.006 · Cited by 16
Self-citation
A united framework modeling of spatial-temporal characteristics for county-level agricultural carbon emission with an application to Hunan in China
Yao, Y., Bi, X., Li, C., Xu, X., Lei, J., & Chen, J. (2024) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121321 · Cited by 16
The evolution of lowland rice-based production systems in Asia: Historic trends, determinants of change, future perspective
Becker, M., & Angulo, C. (2019) · Advances in agronomy · doi:10.1016/bs.agron.2019.04.003 · Cited by 17
Convergence of EU nitrogen surplus, the RDP indicator of water quality
Reinhard, S., & Linderhof, V. G. M. (2015) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.12.020 · Cited by 16
No Evidence of Trade-Off between Farm Efficiency and Resilience: Dependence of Resource-Use Efficiency on Land-Use Diversity
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Spatiotemporal dynamics and resource use efficiency in mariculture production: A case study in Southeastern China
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Does Nepal Have the Agriculture to Feed Its Population with a Sustainable Diet? Evidence from the Perspective of Human–Land Relationship
Liu, Y., Yang, Y., Zhang, C., Xiao, C., & Song, X. (2023) · Foods · doi:10.3390/foods12051076 · Cited by 16
“Among them, the balance between food supply and demand means that the amount of food supply can meet the basic needs of regional population development [26].”
Background
Consistency and uncertainty of remote sensing-based approaches for regional yield gap estimation: A comprehensive assessment of process-based and data-driven models
Wang, J., Chen, J., Zhang, J., Yang, S., Zhang, S., Bai, Y., & Xu, R. (2023) · Field Crops Research · doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2023.109088 · Cited by 15
Biomass feedstock contracts: Role of land quality and yield variability in near term feasibility
Okwo, A., & Thomas, V. M. (2013) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.004 · Cited by 15
The global economic costs of substituting dietary protein from fish with meat, grains and legumes, and dairy
Cazcarro, I., Morales, C., & Duchin, F. (2019) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.12856 · Cited by 15
“The gapbetween potential and actual yields, however, remains substantial for many world regions, including Africa, much of Latin America, and Eastern Europe (Neumann et al., 2010).”
Significant Global Yield-Gap Closing Is Possible Without Increasing the Intensity of Environmentally Harmful Nitrogen Losses
Smerald, A., Fuchs, K., Kraus, D., Butterbach‐Bahl, K., & Scheer, C. (2022) · Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems · doi:10.3389/fsufs.2022.736394 · Cited by 15
“For the “optimal” scenario, minimization of the additional N-fertilizer input was carried out using parallel-tempering Monte Carlo (Newman and Barkema, 1999).”
Method

Authors: Neumann, K., Verburg, P. H., Stehfest, E., & Müller, C.
Affiliations: Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
Corresponding author: Neumann, Kathleen
ORCID: Verburg, Peter H.
Stehfest, Elke
Müller, Christoph
Venue: Agricultural Systems
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2010-06
Volume: 103
Issue: 5
Pages: 316-326
ISSN: 0308-521X (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2010.02.004
OpenAlex: W2148170135
Cited by: 587
References: 75
Citations by year: 2026: 14 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 60 · 2018: 65 · 2017: 45 · 2016: 34 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 26
FWCI: 38.80
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
research.wur.nl
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Agricultural Systems (publishedVersion)
VU Research Portal (publishedVersion)
Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Digital Academic REpository of VU University Amsterdam (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) (submittedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Efficiency Analysis Using DEA
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Economics and Practices
Keywords: yield gap, agricultural intensification, production efficiency, wheat, maize, rice, irrigation, market access, agricultural labor, slope, land management, spatial analysis

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