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Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
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This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.
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“Its successor, SSP5-8.5 projects a fossil-fuel-intensive future with high greenhouse gas emissions and minimal policy interventions, reflecting similar radiative forcing levels.”
From Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models (2025) · cites this paper as [63]
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“Future worlds that are locked into fossil fuels, and reduce annual GHG emissions only around 2040, may require even 20 Gt CO 2 per year removal in 2100 and more.14,15”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [15]
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“In some climate mitigation scenarios, NETs operate concurrently with low-cost fossil fuels (oil and gas).15”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [15]
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Leimbach, M., & Giannousakis, A. (2019) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02469-8 · Cited by 50
Self-citationPorosity and hydrophilicity modulated quaternary ammonium-based sorbents for CO2 capture
Hou, C., Kumar, D. R., Jin, Y., Wu, Y., Lee, J. J., Jones, C. W., & Wang, T. (2020) · Chemical Engineering Journal · doi:10.1016/j.cej.2020.127532 · Cited by 50
Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change
Brown, C., Seo, B., & Rounsevell, M. (2019) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-10-809-2019 · Cited by 50
Impact of electric vehicle development on China’s energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions
Yan, X., & Sun, S. (2021) · Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy · doi:10.1007/s10098-021-02209-6 · Cited by 49
Wang, T., Teng, F., Deng, X., & Xie, J. (2022) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.005 · Cited by 49
Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies
Merfort, L., Bauer, N., Humpenöder, F., Klein, D., Strefler, J., Popp, A., Luderer, G., & Kriegler, E. (2023) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2 · Cited by 57
Self-citationGlobal PM2.5 Prediction and Associated Mortality to 2100 under Different Climate Change Scenarios
Chen, W., Lu, X., Yuan, D., Chen, Y., Li, Z., Huang, Y., Fung, T., Sun, H., & Fung, J. C. H. (2023) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.3c03804 · Cited by 51
Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
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Climate Change Impacts on the Marine Cycling of Biogenic Sulfur: A Review
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Natural variability vs forced signal in the 2015–2019 Central American drought
Pascale, S., Kapnick, S., Delworth, T., Hidalgo, H., & Cooke, W. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03228-4 · Cited by 46
Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change
Parkes, B., Buzan, J., & Huber, M. S. (2022) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-022-02295-1 · Cited by 49
Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 °C climate target
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Insights from the bias-corrected simulations of CMIP6 in India's future climate
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Bio-energy and CO2 emission reductions: an integrated land-use and energy sector perspective
Bauer, N., Klein, D., Humpenöder, F., Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Popp, A., & Strefler, J. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02895-z · Cited by 48
Self-citationImpact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios
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Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain
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Metadata
- Authors
- Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., Mouratiadou, I., Weindl, I., Bertram, C., Dietrich, J.-P., Luderer, G., Pehl, M., Pietzcker, R., Piontek, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Biewald, A., Bonsch, M., Giannousakis, A., Kreidenweis, U., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., Schultes, A., Schwanitz, J., Stevanovic, M., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fujimori, S., & Edenhofer, O.
- Affiliations
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (IT)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Corresponding author
- Kriegler, Elmar
- ORCID
- Kriegler, Elmar
- Bauer, Nico
- Popp, Alexander
- Humpenöder, Florian
- Leimbach, Marian
- Strefler, Jessica
- Baumstark, Lavinia
- Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
- Hilaire, Jérôme
- Klein, David
- Mouratiadou, Ioanna
- Weindl, Isabelle
- Bertram, Christoph
- Luderer, Gunnar
- Pehl, Michaja
- Pietzcker, Robert
- Piontek, Franziska
- Biewald, Anne
- Giannousakis, Anastasis
- Kreidenweis, Ulrich
- Müller, Christoph
- Schultes, Anselm
- Calvin, Katherine
- Emmerling, Johannes
- Fujimori, Shinichiro
- Edenhofer, Ottmar
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-01
- Volume
- 42
- Pages
- 297-315
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2508171124
- Cited by
- 735
- References
- 67
- Citations by year
- 2026: 67 · 2025: 91 · 2024: 97 · 2023: 116 · 2022: 88 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 55 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 18
- FWCI
- 73.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- European Commission (LUC4C, 603542)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP5, energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, food demand, land use, mitigation policy, climate change adaptation, RCP8.5, RCP2.6, radiative forcing, sustainable development, climate change scenarios
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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