Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
Open accessAbstract
Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO 2 -emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.
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Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
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Self-citationThe Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
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“While the scenario evidence for AR5 lacked larger variations of socio-economic baseline conditions, this evidence has become available in the meantime (Popp et al 2017, Bauer et al 2017, van Vuuren et al 2017, Riahi et al 2017, Rogelj et al 2018). As expected, the ranges observed in NETs deployment both for 1.5 ◦C and…”
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- Authors
- Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hilaire, J., Eom, J., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Mouratiadou, I., Sytze de Boer, H., van den Berg, M., Carrara, S., Daioglou, V., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J. E., Gernaat, D., Havlik, P., Johnson, N., Klein, D., Kyle, P., Marangoni, G., Masui, T., Pietzcker, R. C., Strubegger, M., Wise, M., Riahi, K., & van Vuuren, D. P.
- Affiliations
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Bauer, Nico
- ORCID
- Bauer, Nico
- Calvin, Katherine
- Emmerling, Johannes
- Fricko, Oliver
- Fujimori, Shinichiro
- Hilaire, Jérôme
- Eom, Jiyong
- Krey, Volker
- Kriegler, Elmar
- Mouratiadou, Ioanna
- Carrara, Samuel
- Daioglou, Vassilis
- Drouet, Laurent
- Gernaat, David
- Klein, David
- Kyle, Page
- Marangoni, Giacomo
- Masui, Toshihiko
- Pietzcker, Robert C.
- Wise, Marshall
- Riahi, Keywan
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-01
- Volume
- 42
- Pages
- 316-330
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2514521744
- Cited by
- 417
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 44 · 2024: 49 · 2023: 63 · 2022: 37 · 2021: 60 · 2020: 38 · 2019: 35 · 2018: 41 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 7
- FWCI
- 60.33
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01LA11020B)
- “Global Environmental Research Fund”
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Keywords
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, energy sector, future energy scenarios, CO2 emissions, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, climate change adaptation, integrated assessment models, end-use energy demand, fossil fuel dependence, inter-regional disparities, climate change impacts
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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