The DOI matches its Crossref record; 42 of the 42 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
Open accessAbstract
• We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability. • We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and water availability. • Eleven percent of croplands and ten percent of grasslands are at risk from declining water availability. • Changes in diet and waste reduction offer a buffer against land loss and food insecurity. Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.
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Cites
Solutions for a cultivated planet
Foley, J. A., Ramankutty, N., Brauman, K. A., Cassidy, E. S., Gerber, J. S., Johnston, M., Mueller, N. D., O’Connell, C., Ray, D. K., West, P. C., et al. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10452 · Cited by 8,476
Self-citationInfluence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production
Lesk, C., Rowhani, P., & Ramankutty, N. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature16467 · Cited by 3,883
Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management
Mueller, N. D., Gerber, J. S., Johnston, M., Ray, D. K., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11420 · Cited by 2,827
Self-citationFarming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000
Ramankutty, N., Evan, A. T., Monfreda, C., & Foley, J. A. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb002952 · Cited by 1,942 · cited 1×
“Maps of cropland, pasture, vegetable, fruit and pulse areas (hectares, ha) were sourced from (Monfreda et al., 2008; Ramankutty et al., 2008).”
MethodMonfreda, C., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb002947 · Cited by 1,895 · cited 1×
“Maps of cropland, pasture, vegetable, fruit and pulse areas (hectares, ha) were sourced from (Monfreda et al., 2008; Ramankutty et al., 2008).”
MethodSystems integration for global sustainability
Liu, J., Mooney, H., Hull, V., Davis, S. J., Gaskell, J., Hertel, T., Lubchenco, J., Seto, K. C., Gleick, P., Kremen, C., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1258832 · Cited by 1,307
Herrero, M., Havlík, P., Valin, H., Notenbaert, A., Rufino, M. C., Thornton, P. K., Blümmel, M., Weiss, F., Grace, D., & Obersteiner, M. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1308149110 · Cited by 1,254
Self-citationElliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Flörke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N., et al. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1222474110 · Cited by 1,146
A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity
Gosling, S. N., & Arnell, N. W. (2016) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x · Cited by 860
Self-citationFood choices, health and environment: Effects of cutting Europe's meat and dairy intake
Westhoek, H., Lesschen, J. P., Rood, T., Wagner, S., De Marco, A., Murphy-Bokern, D., Leip, A., van Grinsven, H., Sutton, M. A., & Oenema, O. (2014) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.02.004 · Cited by 778
Metadata
- Authors
- Fitton, N., Alexander, P., Arnell, N., Bajzelj, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Gerber, J. S., Havlik, P., Hasegawa, T., Herrero, M., Krisztin, T., van Meijl, H., Powell, T., Sands, R., Stehfest, E., West, P. C., & Smith, P.
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2019-09
- Volume
- 58
- Pages
- 101944
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2963252740
- Cited by
- 268
- References
- 42
- FWCI
- 8.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- Fitton, N., Alexander, P., Arnell, N., Bajzelj, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Gerber, J. S., Havlik, P., Hasegawa, T., Herrero, M., Krisztin, T., van Meijl, H., Powell, T., Sands, R., Stehfest, E., West, P. C., & Smith, P. (2019). The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity. Global Environmental Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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