Combining forecasts: An application to elections

The Combination of Forecasts

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Combining Forecasts

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Measuring the Crowd Within

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A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle*

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Prediction market accuracy in the long run

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Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?

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The Wisdom of Many in One Mind

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Rule-based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations

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Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results

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Historical presidential betting markets

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Presidential Vote Models: A Recount

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Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?

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KAJIAN PERSIAPAN SERTIFIKASI PENERAPAN HAZARD ANALYSIS CRITICAL CONTROL POINT (HACCP) PADA PROSES PRODUKSI PERUSAHAAN CIMOL BOJOT MOZZARELLA

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Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts

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Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote

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Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations

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Polls and Votes

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Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method

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Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic

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Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for forecasting social science problems

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Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times

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A Note on Group Judgements and Group Size

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The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote

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When Simple Is Hard to Accept

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Life Before Polls: Ohio Politicians Predict the 1828 Presidential Vote

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The keys to the white house: An index forecast for 2008

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Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections

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The Exceptional Election of 2008: Performance, Values, and Crisis

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Forecasting Us Presidential Elections

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Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model

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Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

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History and Primary: The Obama Reelection

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Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries

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Presidential Election Polls in 2000: A Study in Dynamics

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Statewide Trial‐Heat Polls and the 2000 Presidential Election: A Forecast Model*

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Forecasting U.S. presidential elections: A brief review

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Median statistics in polling

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Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal ModelPreprint

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Forecasting: theory and practice

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Illusions in regression analysis

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The forecast combination puzzle: A simple theoretical explanation

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Machine-Learning Models for Sales Time Series Forecasting

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Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative

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The ensemble approach to forecasting: A review and synthesis

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Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections

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The bias bias

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Predicting heart transplantation outcomes through data analytics

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Illusions in Regression Analysis

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German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013

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Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for forecasting social science problems

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Combining forecasts: Performance and coherence

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Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists

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Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely

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New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts

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The Forecast Combination Puzzle: A Simple Theoretical ExplanationPreprint

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A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts

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When are prediction market prices most informative?

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Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts

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Forecast Combinations in R using the ForecastComb Package

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Demand Forecasting: Evidence-Based MethodsPreprint

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Predicting Elections: Considering Tools to Pool the Polls

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Collective failure? Lessons from combining forecasts for the UK's referendum on EU membership

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Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote

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Supporting Multicriteria Group Decisions with MACBETH Tools: Selection of Sustainable Brownfield Redevelopment Actions

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Forecasting Elections

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Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals

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Optimal management of cultivated land coupling remote sensing-based expected irrigation water forecasting

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Mortality forecasting using stacked regression ensembles

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Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections

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Multi-step prediction of carbon emissions based on a secondary decomposition framework coupled with stacking ensemble strategy

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Using Wikipedia to Predict Election Outcomes

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Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes

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Forecasting with Judgment

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Information fusion-based meta-classification predictive modeling for ETF performance

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Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys

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Combination forecast based on financial stress categories for global equity market volatility: the evidence during the COVID-19 and the global financial crisis periods

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Efficiency Testing of Prediction Markets: Martingale Approach, Likelihood Ratio and Bayes Factor Analysis

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Guidelines for Science: Evidence and ChecklistsPreprint

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A stochastic differential equation approach to the analysis of the 2017 and 2019 UK general election polls

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Embrace the differences: Revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)

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Forecasting the 2015 General Election with Internet Big Data: An Application of the TRUST FrameworkPreprint

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The PollyVote’s Long-Term Forecast for the 2017 German Federal Election

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A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies

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Polling India via regression and post-stratification of non-probability online samples

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A New Model Averaging Approach in Predicting Credit Risk Default

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Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries

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Combining survey questions with a Bayesian bootstrap method improves election forecastsPreprint

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Predicting the future with humans and AI

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What postpones degree completion? Discovering key predictors of undergraduate degree completion through explainable artificial intelligence (XAI)

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Characterizing and Communicating the Balance of Risks of Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Predictive Density Approach for Colombia

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The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of tribal land units in the United States

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Combining forecasts: An application to U.S. Presidential Elections

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Embrace the differences: Revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)

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Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes

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