The DOI matches its Crossref record; 9 of the 9 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Abstract Objective To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs. Methods We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset ( n =28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting ( n =18). In addition, we adjusting for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase. Results Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9). Conclusions The serial interval of COVID-19 is shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias. Highlights - The serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections was estimated from a total of 28 infector-infectee pairs. - The median serial interval is shorter than the median incubation period, suggesting a substantial proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission. - A short serial interval makes it difficult to trace contacts due to the rapid turnover of case generations.
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Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., Ren, R., Leung, K. S. M., Lau, E. H. Y., Wong, J. Y., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2001316 · Cited by 16,575
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
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Linton, N., Kobayashi, T., Yang, Y., Hayashi, K., Akhmetzhanov, A., Jung, S.-M., Yuan, B., Kinoshita, R., & Nishiura, H. (2020) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm9020538 · Cited by 1,361
Self-citationFactors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable
Fraser, C., Riley, S., Anderson, R. M., & Ferguson, N. M. (2004) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0307506101 · Cited by 1,144
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Self-citationThe Interval between Successive Cases of an Infectious Disease
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Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy
Giordano, G., Blanchini, F., Bruno, R., Colaneri, P., Di Filippo, A., Di Matteo, A., & Colaneri, M. (2020) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-020-0883-7 · Cited by 1,740
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Cowling, B. J., Ali, S. T., Ng, T. W. Y., Tsang, T. K., Li, J. C. M., Fong, M. W., Liao, Q., Kwan, M. Y., Lee, S. L., Chiu, S. S., et al. (2020) · The Lancet Public Health · doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30090-6 · Cited by 1,258
Metadata
- Authors
- Nishiura, H., Linton, N. M., & Akhmetzhanov, A. R.
- Venue
- International Journal of Infectious Diseases
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-04
- Volume
- 93
- Pages
- 284-286
- ISSN
- 1201-9712 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3009983851
- Cited by
- 1,083
- References
- 9
- FWCI
- 39.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- Licence
- www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
- creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (vor)
- Funders
- Japan Science and Technology Agency
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (17H04701, 18H04895, 17H05808, 19H01074)
- Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (JPMJCR1413)
- Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (JP18fk0108050)
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