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Risk factors for the incidence and persistence of suicide-related outcomes: A 10-year follow-up study using the National Comorbidity Surveys
Open accessAbstract
Background We report prospective associations of baseline risk factors with the first onset and persistence of suicide-related outcomes (SROs; ideation, plans, gestures, and attempts) over a 10-year interval among respondents who participated in both the 1990-02 National Comorbidity Survey (NCS) and the 2000-02 National Comorbidity Survey follow-up (NCS-2).Methods A total of 5001 NCS respondents were re-interviewed (87.6% of baseline sample) in the NCS-2. Three sets of baseline (NCS) risk factors were considered as predictors of the first onset and persistence of SROs: socio-demographics, lifetime DSM-III-R disorders, and SROs.Results New onsets included 6.2% suicide ideation, 2.3% plan, 0.7% gesture, and 0.9% attempts. More than one-third of respondents with a baseline history of suicide ideation continued to have suicide ideation at some time over the intervening decade. Persistence was lower for other SROs. The strongest predictors of later SROs were baseline SROs. Prospective associations of baseline mental disorders with later SROs were largely limited to the onset and persistence of ideation.Limitations Although data were gathered prospectively, they were based on retrospective reports at both baseline and follow-up.Conclusions Baseline history of SROs explained much of the association of mental disorders with later SROs. It is important clinically to note that many of the risk factors known to predict onset of SROs also predict persistence of SROs.
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“the motivation for engaging in suicidal (e.g., intolerance of psychological pain (10); perceived burdensomeness (11)) versus non-suicidal behaviors (e.g., self-punishment (12); social signaling (13)) also may differ, perhaps influencing why NSSI often desists in adulthood (14), whereas STB may persist (15, 16).”
From Neural correlates associated with suicide and nonsuicidal self-injury in youth (2021) · cites this paper as [16]
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“2006), the role of treatment in the initiation, persistence, recurrence and extinction of suicidality among those with a mental disorder is largely unknown (Borges et al. 2008; Kessler et al. 2005b; Kuo et al. 2001).”
BackgroundManaging the risk of suicide in people with treatment-resistant depression
Franz, P. J., & Alpert, J. E. (2022) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-824067-0.00039-6 · Cited by 1
Persistent suicidality: A systematic scoping review of the literature
Palm, M. M., Elzinga, E., Middelkoop, L., Kok, A. A. L., Kõlves, K., Beekman, A. T. F., & van Veen, S. M. P. (2025) · Journal of Affective Disorders Reports · doi:10.1016/j.jadr.2025.100996 · Cited by 1
Examining the chronicity of suicidal thoughts and behaviors among Australian males
Haregu, T., Zhang, S., Young, J. T., & Armstrong, G. (2026) · Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s00127-026-03172-7 · Cited by 1
“The 10-year follow-up of National Comorbidity Survey (NCDs) showed persistence of suicidal ideation among ideators at baseline to be 35%, while the prevalence for chronic suicidal planning and attempts were 21.2% and 15.4%, respectively [9].”
InfluentialWołodźko, T., & Kokoszka, A. (2014) · Psychiatria Polska · doi:10.12740/pp/37442 · Cited by 1
“It enabled us to validate to what extent the data gathered in the first research permit us to predict later suicidal ideation, plans, gestures and attempts [15].”
ResultSEARCHING FOR MEANING: AN INVESTIGATION OF LIFE MEANING IN DEPRESSED ADULTS
Braden, A. L. (2011) · OhioLink ETD Center (Ohio Library and Information Network) · Cited by 1
Ethics Column It’s complicated: The ethical ramifications of suicide
Pilgrim, D. M. (2012) · Clinical Psychology Forum · doi:10.53841/bpscpf.2012.1.237.51 · Cited by 1
Social Support and Suicidal Ideation among Children of Cross-Border Married Couples
Lee, S., Kim, S., Kim, Y., & Ryu, D. (2024) · Economics · doi:10.1515/econ-2022-0120 · Cited by 1
Epidemiology, risk and protective factors of self-immolation : a study from Iran
Ahmadi, A. (2013) · Figshare · Cited by 1
Schaefer, K. (2014) · doi:10.13021/mars/5446 · Cited by 1
Factors Associated with Suicide Attempts in Women with Eating Disorders
Pisetsky, E. M. (2013) · Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) · doi:10.17615/60dw-2s10
Six Year Outcomes of Suicidal Adolescents: The Role of Sexual Abuse
O’Mara, R. M. (2010) · Deep Blue (University of Michigan)
Hagen, B. N. M. (2011) · University Library - University of Saskatchewan (University of Saskatchewan)
Beck-Cross, C. (2012) · BIA (Drake University)
Boram, C. (2015) · Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University)
Risk factors for suicidal behavior in adolescence: the role of suicidal ideation
Ortin‐Peralta, A. (2015) · TDX (Tesis Doctorals en Xarxa)
Lyaga, S. (2016) · TEXILA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLINICAL RESEARCH · doi:10.21522/tijcr.2014.03.02.art013
Depression and Cognitive Control in the Face of Negative Information or Stressors
Kaiser, R. H. (2012) · CU Scholar (University of Colorado Boulder)
Metadata
- Authors
- Borges, G., Angst, J., Nock, M. K., Ruscio, A. M., & Kessler, R. C.
- Affiliations
- Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (MX)
- University Hospital Zurich (CH)
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kessler, Ronald C.
- Venue
- Journal of Affective Disorders
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2008-01
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 1-3
- Pages
- 25-33
- ISSN
- 0165-0327 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC2248274
- OpenAlex
- W2136828172
- Cited by
- 334
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 25
- FWCI
- 10.75
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of Affective Disorders (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration
- Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (044780)
- National Institute of Mental Health (U01-MH60220)
- John W. Alden Trust
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA12058)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Homicide, Infanticide, and Child Abuse
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Mental Health Treatment and Access
- Keywords
- suicidal ideation, suicide planning, suicide attempts, risk factors, mental illness, lifetime psychiatric disorders, National Comorbidity Survey, prospective follow-up
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Mental Disorders, Demography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Surveys and Questionnaires, Risk Factors, Suicide, Suicide, Attempted, Time Factors, United States, Comorbidity, Incidence, Prevalence
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