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Risk factors for the incidence and persistence of suicide-related outcomes: A 10-year follow-up study using the National Comorbidity Surveys
Open accessAbstract
Background We report prospective associations of baseline risk factors with the first onset and persistence of suicide-related outcomes (SROs; ideation, plans, gestures, and attempts) over a 10-year interval among respondents who participated in both the 1990-02 National Comorbidity Survey (NCS) and the 2000-02 National Comorbidity Survey follow-up (NCS-2).Methods A total of 5001 NCS respondents were re-interviewed (87.6% of baseline sample) in the NCS-2. Three sets of baseline (NCS) risk factors were considered as predictors of the first onset and persistence of SROs: socio-demographics, lifetime DSM-III-R disorders, and SROs.Results New onsets included 6.2% suicide ideation, 2.3% plan, 0.7% gesture, and 0.9% attempts. More than one-third of respondents with a baseline history of suicide ideation continued to have suicide ideation at some time over the intervening decade. Persistence was lower for other SROs. The strongest predictors of later SROs were baseline SROs. Prospective associations of baseline mental disorders with later SROs were largely limited to the onset and persistence of ideation.Limitations Although data were gathered prospectively, they were based on retrospective reports at both baseline and follow-up.Conclusions Baseline history of SROs explained much of the association of mental disorders with later SROs. It is important clinically to note that many of the risk factors known to predict onset of SROs also predict persistence of SROs.
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“the motivation for engaging in suicidal (e.g., intolerance of psychological pain (10); perceived burdensomeness (11)) versus non-suicidal behaviors (e.g., self-punishment (12); social signaling (13)) also may differ, perhaps influencing why NSSI often desists in adulthood (14), whereas STB may persist (15, 16).”
From Neural correlates associated with suicide and nonsuicidal self-injury in youth (2021) · cites this paper as [16]
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Examining the role of sex in self-injurious thoughts and behaviors
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“Typically, SI is not an isolated instance, and is in fact the most recurrent suicide-related outcome (Borges et al. 2008).”
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“Although most suicidal ideation is transient and does not require close clinical attention (4), for some individuals, suicidal ideation becomes persistent, causing long-term morbidity, mental distress and ultimately increasing the risk of attempted and completed suicide (5).”
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“Research advancing our knowledge of risk factors for suicide continues to enhance our ability to predict and prevent death by suicide (Borges et al., 2008; Mann et al., 2005).”
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“The second wave was the 2001–2003 NCS follow-up survey (NCS-2) [26].”
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“The known risk factors for suicide attempt and ideation (Bernal et al., 2007; Borges et al., 2008;Kessleret al.,1999;Nocket al., 2008;Oquendoet al., 2006; Sokero et al., 2003) mostly refer to demographic and clinical characteristics which are informative in identifying groups at risk but…”
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“Although many risk factors have been reported to be correlated with suicide probability, it is still difficult to identify suicidal individuals, since suicidal behavior consists of a constellation of complex factors and everyone is unique [10-12].”
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“…surveys of adults in the USA have reported lower prevalence of attempts only among Blacks, relative to Non-Hispanic Whites (Kessler et al. 1999 ; Borges et al. 2006, 2008), but no studies have focused systematically on possible differences across the main ethnic groups in the USA using…”
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“Furthermore, our fi ndings are generally consistent with previous fi ndings that suggest that those who use drugs illegally and meet the criteria for drug use disorders are at increased risk for suicidal ideation but not attempt among those who report ideation (Borges et al., 2008).”
ResultMental disorders and risk of suicide attempt in prisoners
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“As prevalence rates of suicidal ideation are many times higher than rates of suicide attempts (Borges et al., 2012, 2008; Kessler et al., 1999), and suicidal ideation alone is a poor predictor of suicidal behavior (Borges et al., 2008; Fowler, 2012), the widespread use of suicidal ideation as an…”
BackgroundAdolescent suicidal behavior across the excess weight status spectrum
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“Only a history of progression to an attempt is associated with subsequent risk of a nonfatal or fatal suicide attempt in adolescents (3,29).”
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“Notwithstanding these limitations, this study represents the fi rst investigation among South Africans of a wide range of childhood adversities and their impact on the onset and persistence of suicidality over the life course.”
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Remission of suicidal thoughts: Findings from a longitudinal epidemiological study
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“Rather than becoming entangled in this debate, we prefer to clarify that the criteria for persistence in this study were identified in accordance with Borges et al. (2008) and refer to ideators at both baseline (lifetime ideation) and follow-up (past 12-month ideation).”
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“When looking more closely, it appears that most of the previously identified risk factors, such as major depressive disorder, predict significantly ideation but not or more weakly attempts among individuals considering suicide (Borges et al., 2008; Nock et al., 2010).”
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“Prior suicidal ideation or suicide attempts are the primary risk factors for future suicidal behaviours [1,2].”
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“, 2009) and more than a third reported persistent suicidal ideation over ten years (Borges et al., 2008).”
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“[9,33] Furthermore, the medical condition of the patient, which is associated with suicide in patients with cancer, was not associated with suicidal ideation or suicide attempts in FCs.”
BackgroundA Risk Algorithm for the Persistence of Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors During College
Mortier, P., Kiekens, G., Auerbach, R. P., Cuijpers, P. J., Demyttenaere, K., Green, J. G., Kessler, R. C., Nock, M. K., Zaslavsky, A. M., & Bruffaerts, R. (2017) · The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry · doi:10.4088/jcp.17m11485 · Cited by 48
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“…National Comorbidity Survey revealed that the association of suicidal ideation at the initial survey with suicide-related outcomes (suicidal ideation, plans, gestures, and attempts) 10 years later is overwhelmed by the influence of suicidal ideation measured more proximally (Borges et al., 2008).”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Borges, G., Angst, J., Nock, M. K., Ruscio, A. M., & Kessler, R. C.
- Affiliations
- Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (MX)
- University Hospital Zurich (CH)
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kessler, Ronald C.
- Venue
- Journal of Affective Disorders
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2008-01
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 1-3
- Pages
- 25-33
- ISSN
- 0165-0327 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC2248274
- OpenAlex
- W2136828172
- Cited by
- 334
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 25
- FWCI
- 10.75
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of Affective Disorders (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration
- Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (044780)
- National Institute of Mental Health (U01-MH60220)
- John W. Alden Trust
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA12058)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Homicide, Infanticide, and Child Abuse
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Mental Health Treatment and Access
- Keywords
- suicidal ideation, suicide planning, suicide attempts, risk factors, mental illness, lifetime psychiatric disorders, National Comorbidity Survey, prospective follow-up
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Mental Disorders, Demography, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Surveys and Questionnaires, Risk Factors, Suicide, Suicide, Attempted, Time Factors, United States, Comorbidity, Incidence, Prevalence
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