Intolerance of uncertainty, posttraumatic stress, depression, and fears for the future among displaced refugees
Abstract
Introduction The vast majority of the 100 million forcibly displaced persons worldwide live in a state of prolonged uncertainty with limited resettlement prospects and access to resources. Little is known, however, regarding how refugees and asylum-seekers cope with this uncertainty.Methods In this study, we investigated the longitudinal association between a measure of how people cope with uncertainty (intolerance of uncertainty (IU)), fears for the future, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and depression symptoms. A sample of 1,237 refugees displaced in Indonesia completed an online survey in Arabic, Farsi, Dari, Somali or English at two time-points six-months apart.Results Results indicated that greater IU-inhibitory anxiety (IU-IA or impairment related to uncertainty) was associated with subsequent increases in PTSD and depression symptoms and fears for the future. Greater PTSD symptoms and fears for the future were associated with increases in IU-prospective anxiety (IU-PA or distress related to uncertainty), and greater depression symptoms were associated with increases in IU-IA.Discussion These findings provide evidence for the mechanistic role of IU in psychological symptoms amongst displaced refugees. Results underscore the importance of policies to reduce uncertainty in displacement environments, and highlight IU as a potential intervention target to help refugees cope with protracted displacement.
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Chronic uncertainty exerts a particularly heavy toll on people living under multiple strains and in precarious conditions, such as refugees and displaced persons, and on people living under continuous traumatic situations intensively covered by the media.
“Chronic uncertainty exerts a particularly heavy toll on people living under multiple strains and in precarious conditions, such as refugees and displaced persons [51-53], and on people living under continuous traumatic situations intensively covered by the media, such as populations affected by Israeli-Arab conflicts or the war in Ukraine.”
From Impact of Media-Induced Uncertainty on Mental Health: Narrative-Based Perspective. (2025) · cites this paper as [53]
Misinformation and propaganda have been linked to heightened distress and anxiety due to conflicting narratives and media sensationalism.
“and heightened distress and anxiety due to conflicting narratives and media sensationalism [53].”
From Impact of Media-Induced Uncertainty on Mental Health: Narrative-Based Perspective. (2025) · cites this paper as [53]
Extended uncertainty is frequently normalized in Middle Eastern or conflict-affected areas, resulting in distinct patterns of emotional regulation and resilience.
“In contrast, extended uncertainty is frequently normalized in Middle Eastern or conflict-affected areas, resulting in distinct patterns of emotional regulation and resilience [53].”
From Impact of Media-Induced Uncertainty on Mental Health: Narrative-Based Perspective. (2025) · cites this paper as [53]
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- Authors
- Nickerson, A., Hoffman, J., Keegan, D., Kashyap, S., Argadianti, R., Tricesaria, D., Pestalozzi, Z., Nandyatama, R., Khakbaz, M., Nilasari, N., & Liddell, B.
- Affiliations
- UNSW Sydney (AU)
- Universitas Gadjah Mada (ID)
- Corresponding author
- Nickerson, Angela
- Venue
- Journal of Anxiety Disorders
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-03
- Volume
- 94
- Pages
- 102672
- ISSN
- 0887-6185 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4316496662
- Cited by
- 33
- References
- 62
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 1
- FWCI
- 9.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Anxiety Disorders (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Australian Research Council (LP170100852)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Migration, Health and Trauma
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Research
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Keywords
- intolerance of uncertainty, asylum seekers, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, protracted displacement, forced displacement
- MeSH terms
- Depression, Fear, Humans, Prospective Studies, Refugees, Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic, Uncertainty
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