Dryland changes under different levels of global warming
Abstract
Drylands are vital ecosystems which cover almost 47% of the Earth's surface, hosting 39% of the global population. Dryland areas are highly sensitive to climatic changes and substantial impacts are foreseen under a warming climate. Many studies have examined the evolution of drylands in the future highlighting the need for improved capability of climate models to simulate aridity. The present study takes advantage of new higher resolution climate projections by the HadGEM3A Atmosphere Global Climate Model using prescribed time varying SSTs and sea ice, provided by a range of CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5. The aim of the higher resolution models is to examine the benefit of the improved representation of atmospheric processes in the dryland research and to see where these results lie in the range of results from previous studies using the original CMIP5 ensemble. The transient response of aridity from the recent past until the end of the 21st century was examined as well as the expansion of global drylands under specific levels of global warming (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C). Dryland changes were further assessed at the watershed level for a number of major global river basins to discuss implications on hydrological changes and land degradation. The areal coverage of drylands could increase by an additional 7% of the global land surface by 2100 under high end climate change. At a 4 °C warmer world above pre-industrial, 11.2% of global land area is projected to shift towards drie…
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30% of the approximately 46% (±0.8%) of global land area defined as drylands are grassy ecosystems.
“30% of the approximately 46% (±0.8%) of the global land area defined as drylands are grassy ecosystems (22)(23)(24).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [22]
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“Ultimately, model simulations and other evidence clearly show that continued global warming will make the earth’s drylands drier over time (Overpeck and Udall, 2010; Huang et al., 2012; Feng and Fu, 2013; Koutroulis, 2019).”
BackgroundCavalcante, A. D. M. B., & Sampaio, A. C. G. (2022) · Journal of Arid Environments · doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2022.104725 · Cited by 25
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Global blind spots in soil health research overlap with environmental vulnerability hotspots
Cherubin, M. R., Pinheiro, C. R., Souza, L. F. N., Canisares, L., Ferreira, T. O., Cerri, C. E., Minasny, B., & Smith, P. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02663-w · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“Such ari-di fi cation is expected to result in a global expansion of drylands by up to 6.9% 54 predominantly in the developing regions 55 , exacerbating its socio-economic vulnerability.”
InfluentialHow will drought evolve in global arid zones under different future emission scenarios?
Wu, F., Yang, X.-L., Yuan, X., Ren, L.-L., Yuan, S.-S., Yuan, F., Jiang, S.-H., Liu, Y., & Zhang, H.-S. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101661 · Cited by 24
Significant influences of extreme climate on autumn phenology in Central Asia grassland
Gao, X.-Y., Tao, Z.-X., & Dai, J.-H. (2023) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111056 · Cited by 24
Advancing the Evidence Base of Future Warming Impacts on Human Mobility in African Drylands
Thalheimer, L., Williams, D., Geest, K., & Otto, F. (2021) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001958 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“4 of 10 In a warmer world, drylands are expanding globally (IPCC, 2018) while high population growth in drylands exposes more people to climate hazards (Koutroulis, 2019).”
BackgroundInfluentialMeasurements and modeling of hydrological responses to summer pruning in dryland apple orchards
Ye, M., Zhao, X.-N., Biswas, A., Huo, G., Yang, B., Zou, Y.-F., Siddique, K., & Gao, X.-D. (2021) · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125651 · Cited by 23
Mıynat, M. E., & Argun, H. (2020) · doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2020.03.118 · Cited by 23
Allam, A., Moussa, R., Najem, W., & Bocquillon, C. (2020) · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-24-4503-2020 · Cited by 23
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Imaging Spectroscopy for Conservation Applications
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“Drylands Dryland ecosystems cover nearly half of the global land area [74], and approximately three billion people, or nearly 40% of the global population, live in dryland ecosystems [75].”
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“LDD can also lead to a reduction in biodiversity and poverty around the world (Koutroulis, 2019 ).”
Plant biomass allocation is mediated by precipitation use efficiency in arid and semiarid ecosystems
Feng, S.-Y., Ding, J., Zhan, T., Zhao, W.-W., & Pereira, P. (2022) · Land Degradation & Development · doi:10.1002/ldr.4455 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“Furthermore, the continuous expansion of arid and semiarid land under a changing climate (Feng & Fu, 2013; Huang et al., 2016; Koutroulis, 2019) will largely alter human welfare and affect the achievement of sustainable development goals (Yin et al., 2021).”
BackgroundCatalytic pyrolysis of pine bark over Ni/SiO2 in a CO2 atmosphere
Lee, T., Jung, S., Kim, K.-H., & Kwon, E. (2021) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.119827 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Controlling gully- and revegetation-induced dried soil layers across a slope-gully system.
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“Similarly, Koutroulis (2019) observed that climate change, characterized by reduced precipitation and increased PET, would exacerbate droughts and expand their impact areas across the Southern Mediterranean region under various warming scenarios (+1.5, +2, +4°C).”
InfluentialSlightly Enhanced Drought in the Yellow River Basin Under Future Warming Scenarios
Li, C., Kattel, G., Zhang, J., Shang, Y.-J., Gnyawali, K., Zhang, F., & Miao, L. (2022) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4052312 · Cited by 19
Future summer warming pattern under climate change is affected by lapse-rate changes
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Chen, L.-J., Li, C., Zhang, Z., Feng, Q., Xi, H.-Y., Guo, R., Zhang, C., & Wei, Y.-X. (2023) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104323 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
- Authors
- Koutroulis, A. G.
- Affiliations
- Technical University of Crete (GR)
- Corresponding author
- Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.
- Venue
- Science of The Total Environment
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2019-03
- Volume
- 655
- Pages
- 482-511
- ISSN
- 0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2901145303
- Cited by
- 294
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 29 · 2025: 41 · 2024: 51 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 12
- FWCI
- 11.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Seventh Framework Programme (603864)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- arid regions, aridity, global warming, climate change projections, CMIP5, RCP8.5, dryland expansion, land degradation, river basins, hydrological change, 1.5°C target, climate model resolution
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