Cited by 294Climate variability and modelsHydrology and Drought AnalysisClimate Change and Environmental Impact

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Dryland changes under different levels of global warming

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.·2019·Science of The Total Environment

DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.215

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Abstract

Drylands are vital ecosystems which cover almost 47% of the Earth's surface, hosting 39% of the global population. Dryland areas are highly sensitive to climatic changes and substantial impacts are foreseen under a warming climate. Many studies have examined the evolution of drylands in the future highlighting the need for improved capability of climate models to simulate aridity. The present study takes advantage of new higher resolution climate projections by the HadGEM3A Atmosphere Global Climate Model using prescribed time varying SSTs and sea ice, provided by a range of CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5. The aim of the higher resolution models is to examine the benefit of the improved representation of atmospheric processes in the dryland research and to see where these results lie in the range of results from previous studies using the original CMIP5 ensemble. The transient response of aridity from the recent past until the end of the 21st century was examined as well as the expansion of global drylands under specific levels of global warming (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C). Dryland changes were further assessed at the watershed level for a number of major global river basins to discuss implications on hydrological changes and land degradation. The areal coverage of drylands could increase by an additional 7% of the global land surface by 2100 under high end climate change. At a 4 °C warmer world above pre-industrial, 11.2% of global land area is projected to shift towards drie…

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“Climate changes associated with global warming have led to an increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation in drylands (Koutroulis 2019; IPCC 2021).”
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“…of all drylands, with a total area of 3.6 billion hectares, are endangered by de-sertification (Huang et al. 2016; Maestre et al. 2021), while accelerated processes of ecosystem degradation currently affect 15% of the drylands, mostly in developing countries (Koutroulis 2019; Burrell et al. 2020).”
Influential

Authors: Koutroulis, A. G.
Affiliations: Technical University of Crete (GR)
Corresponding author: Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.
ORCID: Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.
Venue: Science of The Total Environment
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2019-03
Volume: 655
Pages: 482-511
ISSN: 0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.215
OpenAlex: W2901145303
Cited by: 294
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 29 · 2025: 41 · 2024: 51 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 12
FWCI: 11.86
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
Locations: The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: Seventh Framework Programme (603864)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: arid regions, aridity, global warming, climate change projections, CMIP5, RCP8.5, dryland expansion, land degradation, river basins, hydrological change, 1.5°C target, climate model resolution

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Dryland changes under different levels of global warming

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