CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 294Climate variability and modelsHydrology and Drought AnalysisClimate Change and Environmental Impact

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Dryland changes under different levels of global warming

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.·2019·Science of The Total Environment
DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.215
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Drylands are vital ecosystems which cover almost 47% of the Earth's surface, hosting 39% of the global population. Dryland areas are highly sensitive to climatic changes and substantial impacts are foreseen under a warming climate. Many studies have examined the evolution of drylands in the future highlighting the need for improved capability of climate models to simulate aridity. The present study takes advantage of new higher resolution climate projections by the HadGEM3A Atmosphere Global Climate Model using prescribed time varying SSTs and sea ice, provided by a range of CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5. The aim of the higher resolution models is to examine the benefit of the improved representation of atmospheric processes in the dryland research and to see where these results lie in the range of results from previous studies using the original CMIP5 ensemble. The transient response of aridity from the recent past until the end of the 21st century was examined as well as the expansion of global drylands under specific levels of global warming (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C). Dryland changes were further assessed at the watershed level for a number of major global river basins to discuss implications on hydrological changes and land degradation. The areal coverage of drylands could increase by an additional 7% of the global land surface by 2100 under high end climate change. At a 4 °C warmer world above pre-industrial, 11.2% of global land area is projected to shift towards drie…

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.215

Cites

0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 55

  1. Alfieri, 2017, Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world, Earth's Future, 5, 171, 10.1002/2016EF000485 · DOI
  2. Asadi Zarch, 2017, Future aridity under conditions of global climate change, J. Hydrol., 554, 451, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.043 · DOI
  3. Berg, 2016, Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6, 869, 10.1038/nclimate3029 · DOI
  4. Best, 2011, The joint UK land environment simulator (JULES), model description — part 1: energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677, 10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011 · DOI
  5. Betts, 2015, Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways, Biogeosci. Discuss., 10, 6171
  6. Betts, 2018, Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 376
  7. Borrelli, 2017, An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion, Nat. Commun., 8, 2013, 10.1038/s41467-017-02142-7 · DOI
  8. Chang, 2017, Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 10.1088/1748-9326/aa63fa · DOI
  9. Daliakopoulos, 2016, The threat of soil salinity: a European scale review, Sci. Total Environ., 573, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.177 · DOI · Paper page
  10. Daliakopoulos, 2017, Yield response of Mediterranean rangelands under a changing climate, Land Degrad. Dev., 28, 1962, 10.1002/ldr.2717 · DOI
  11. Davie, 2013, Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP, Earth Syst. Dyn., 4, 359, 10.5194/esd-4-359-2013 · DOI
  12. Deser, 2017, The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections, Clim. Dyn., 49, 3141, 10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z · DOI
  13. Dottori, 2018, Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming, Nat. Clim. Chang., 8, 781, 10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z · DOI
  14. Durán, 2018, Temperature and aridity regulate spatial variability of soil multifunctionality in drylands across the globe, Ecology, 99, 1184, 10.1002/ecy.2199 · DOI
  15. Feng, 2013, Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10081, 10.5194/acp-13-10081-2013 · DOI
  16. Greve, 2015, Assessment of future changes in water availability and aridity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5493, 10.1002/2015GL064127 · DOI
  17. Greve, 2014, Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land, Nat. Geosci., 7, 716, 10.1038/ngeo2247 · DOI
  18. Greve, 2017, Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO2, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 10.1088/1748-9326/aa89a3 · DOI
  19. Grillakis, 2013, Multisegment statistical bias correction of daily GCM precipitation output, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 10.1002/jgrd.50323 · DOI
  20. Grillakis, 2016, Climate-induced shifts in global soil temperature regimes, Soil Sci., 181, 264, 10.1097/SS.0000000000000156 · DOI
  21. Grillakis, 2017, A method to preserve trends in quantile mapping bias correction of climate modeled temperature, Earth Syst. Dyn., 8, 889, 10.5194/esd-8-889-2017 · DOI
  22. Gudmundsson, 2016, The sensitivity of water availability to changes in the aridity index and other factors—a probabilistic analysis in the Budyko space, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6985, 10.1002/2016GL069763 · DOI
  23. Hawkins, 2011, The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change, Clim. Dyn., 37, 407, 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6 · DOI
  24. Hewitt, 2011, Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 223, 10.5194/gmd-4-223-2011 · DOI
  25. Huang, 2016, Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6, 166, 10.1038/nclimate2837 · DOI
  26. Huang, 2017, Dryland climate change: recent progress and challenges, Rev. Geophys., 55, 719, 10.1002/2016RG000550 · DOI
  27. Huang, 2017, Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target, Nat. Clim. Chang., 7, 417, 10.1038/nclimate3275 · DOI
  28. Hulme, 1996, Recent climatic change in the world's drylands, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 61, 10.1029/95GL03586 · DOI
  29. Jacob, 2012, Assessing the transferability of the regional climate model REMO to different COordinated regional climate downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) regions, Atmosphere (Basel), 3, 181, 10.3390/atmos3010181 · DOI
  30. Knight, 2014, Predictions of climate several years ahead using an improved decadal prediction system, J. Clim., 27, 7550, 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00069.1 · DOI
  31. Koutroulis, 2016, Evaluation of precipitation and temperature simulation performance of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 historical experiments, Clim. Dyn., 47, 1881, 10.1007/s00382-015-2938-x · DOI
  32. Koutroulis, 2018, Freshwater vulnerability under high end climate change. A pan-European assessment, Sci. Total Environ., 613
  33. Koutroulis, 2018, Simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a Pan European assessment, Water (Switzerland), 10, 1331
  34. Meybeck, 2013, Global hydrobelts and hydroregions: improved reporting scale for water-related issues?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1093, 10.5194/hess-17-1093-2013 · DOI
  35. Milly, 2016, Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6, 946, 10.1038/nclimate3046 · DOI
  36. Müller Schmied, 2016, Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2877, 10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016 · DOI
  37. Müller Schmied, 2016, Evaluation of radiation components in a global freshwater model with station-based observations, Water, 8, 450, 10.3390/w8100450 · DOI
  38. Naumann, 2018, Global changes in drought conditions under different levels of warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 3285, 10.1002/2017GL076521 · DOI
  39. Panagos, 2015, The new assessment of soil loss by water erosion in Europe, Environ. Sci. Pol., 54, 438, 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.08.012 · DOI
  40. Papadimitriou, 2016, High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows — exploring the effects of forcing biases, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1785, 10.5194/hess-20-1785-2016 · DOI
  41. Papadimitriou, 2017, The effect of GCM biases on global runoff simulations of a land surface model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4379, 10.5194/hess-21-4379-2017 · DOI
  42. Roderick, 2011, A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties, Water Resour. Res., 47, 10.1029/2010WR009826 · DOI
  43. Roderick, 2015, On the assessment of aridity with changes in atmospheric CO2, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5450, 10.1002/2015WR017031 · DOI
  44. Scheff, 2015, Terrestrial aridity and its response to greenhouse warming across CMIP5 climate models, J. Clim., 28, 5583, 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00480.1 · DOI
  45. Schlaepfer, 2017, Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils, Nat. Commun., 8, 10.1038/ncomms14196 · DOI
  46. Shannon, 2018, Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios, Cryosphere Discuss.
  47. Sheffield, 2006, Development of a 50-year high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling, J. Clim., 19, 3088, 10.1175/JCLI3790.1 · DOI
  48. Swann, 2016, Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 113, 10019, 10.1073/pnas.1604581113 · DOI · Paper page
  49. United Nations, 2016, Report of the Conference Parties on its twenty-first session, held in Paris, 30 November to 13 December 2015
  50. Vautard, 2018, Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe, Clim. Dyn., 1
  51. Veldkamp, 2017, Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century, Nat. Commun., 8, 10.1038/ncomms15697 · DOI
  52. Vousdoukas, 2018, Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe, Nat. Clim. Chang., 8, 776, 10.1038/s41558-018-0260-4 · DOI
  53. Walters, 2011, The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 919, 10.5194/gmd-4-919-2011 · DOI
  54. Williams, 2010, Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 107, 21289, 10.1073/pnas.0914211107 · DOI · Paper page
  55. Yang, 2018, Disconnection between trends of atmospheric drying and continental runoff, Water Resour. Res., 54, 4700, 10.1029/2018WR022593 · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

See all 294

Metadata

Authors
Koutroulis, A. G.
Affiliations
Technical University of Crete (GR)
Corresponding author
Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.
ORCID
Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.
Venue
Science of The Total Environment
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2019-03
Volume
655
Pages
482-511
ISSN
0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.215
OpenAlex
W2901145303
Cited by
294
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 29 · 2025: 41 · 2024: 51 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 12
FWCI
11.86
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
Locations
  • The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
Seventh Framework Programme (603864)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords
arid regions, aridity, global warming, climate change projections, CMIP5, RCP8.5, dryland expansion, land degradation, river basins, hydrological change, 1.5°C target, climate model resolution

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review