Driving to safety: How many miles of driving would it take to demonstrate autonomous vehicle reliability?
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An analysis suggests that hundreds of millions or billions of miles of testing would be needed for AVs to demonstrate a specific benchmark of safety on public roadways, potentially taking decades.
“For example, the idea that AVs could be tested on public roadways until they demonstrate a specific benchmark of safety that has been challenged by an analysis suggesting that hundreds of millions or billions of miles of testing would be needed, potentially taking decades.8”
From Advancing Transportation Equity and Safety Through Autonomous Vehicles (2024) · cites this paper as [8]
Conventional approaches may not be suitable for assessing AV risks.
“Part of the challenge is that conventional approaches may not be suitable for assessing their risks.8”
From Advancing Transportation Equity and Safety Through Autonomous Vehicles (2024) · cites this paper as [8]
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“8 For example, the idea that AVs could be tested on public roadways until they demonstrate a specific benchmark of safety that has been challenged by an analysis suggesting that hundreds of millions or billions of miles of testing would be needed, potentially taking decades.”
BackgroundThe Flexcrash Platform for Testing Autonomous Vehicles in Mixed-Traffic Scenarios
Gambi, A., Mathews, S., Steininger, B., Poienko, M., & Bobek, D. (2024) · Proceedings of the 33rd ACM SIGSOFT International Symposium on Software Testing and Analysis · doi:10.1145/3650212.3685299 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Kalra, N., & Paddock, S. M.
- Affiliations
- RAND Corporation (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kalra, Nidhi
- ORCID
- Kalra, Nidhi
- Venue
- Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2016-12
- Volume
- 94
- Pages
- 182-193
- ISSN
- 0965-8564 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2525936901
- Cited by
- 1,221
- References
- 27
- Citations by year
- 2026: 92 · 2025: 153 · 2024: 145 · 2023: 147 · 2022: 136 · 2021: 174 · 2020: 141 · 2019: 115 · 2018: 82 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 3
- FWCI
- 147.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- RAND
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Traffic and Road Safety
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Autonomous Vehicle Technology and Safety
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Human-Automation Interaction and Safety
- Keywords
- autonomous vehicles, vehicle safety, safety demonstration, statistical evidence, rare events, traffic fatalities, road traffic injuries, fleet testing, adaptive regulation, technology governance
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