Macroeconomic implications of population ageing and selected policy responses
Open accessAbstract
Between now and 2030, every country will experience population ageing-a trend that is both pronounced and historically unprecedented. Over the past six decades, countries of the world had experienced only a slight increase in the share of people aged 60 years and older, from 8% to 10%. But in the next four decades, this group is expected to rise to 22% of the total population-a jump from 800 million to 2 billion people. Evidence suggests that cohorts entering older age now are healthier than previous ones. However, progress has been very uneven, as indicated by the wide gaps in population health (measured by life expectancy) between the worst (Sierra Leone) and best (Japan) performing countries, now standing at a difference of 36 years for life expectancy at birth and 15 years for life expectancy at age 60 years. Population ageing poses challenges for countries' economies, and the health of older populations is of concern. Older people have greater health and long-term care needs than younger people, leading to increased expenditure. They are also less likely to work if they are unhealthy, and could impose an economic burden on families and society. Like everyone else, older people need both physical and economic security, but the burden of providing these securities will be falling on a smaller portion of the population. Pension systems will be stressed and will need reassessment along with retirement policies. Health systems, which have not in the past been oriented toward the myriad health problems and long-term care needs of older people and have not sufficiently emphasised disease prevention, can respond in different ways to the new demographic reality and the associated changes in population health. Along with behavioural adaptations by individuals and businesses, the nature of such policy responses will establish whether population ageing will lead to major macroeconomic difficulties.
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As older populations expand and reduced younger populations reach working-age, nations could encounter economic and social challenges requiring updated policies related to health care, retirement, reproduction, childcare, and migration.
“As older populations expand and reduced younger populations reach working-age, nations could encounter economic and social challenges requiring updated policies related to health care, retirement, reproduction, childcare, and migration.59, 60, 61, 62”
From Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (2024) · cites this paper as [60]
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- Authors
- Bloom, D. E., Chatterji, S., Kowal, P., Lloyd-Sherlock, P., McKee, M., Rechel, B., Rosenberg, L., & Smith, J. P.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- World Health Organization (CH)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies (BE)
- RAND Corporation (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bloom, David E
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2015-02
- Volume
- 385
- Issue
- 9968
- Pages
- 649-657
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC4469267
- OpenAlex
- W2030918129
- Cited by
- 769
- References
- 75
- Citations by year
- 2026: 79 · 2025: 88 · 2024: 57 · 2023: 61 · 2022: 77 · 2021: 77 · 2020: 88 · 2019: 73 · 2018: 66 · 2017: 41 · 2016: 41 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 2
- FWCI
- 5.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- NOVA (University of Newcastle Australia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (2P30AG024409-10, R37AG025529)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Aging, Elder Care, and Social Issues
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Global Health Care Issues
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- population aging, macroeconomic effects, pensions, pension policy, long-term care, health care costs, life expectancy, population health, health care reform, demographic change
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Economics, Health Expenditures, Health Services for the Aged, Health Services Needs and Demand, Humans, Life Expectancy, Long-Term Care, Population Dynamics, Global Health
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