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Cited by 5Family Dynamics and RelationshipsDemographic Trends and Gender PreferencesReproductive Health and Technologies

Should we be concerned about low fertility? A discussion of six possible arguments

Open access
Kravdal, Øystein·2025·Demographic Research
DOI 10.4054/demres.2025.53.14
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Abstract

OBJECTIVEThe low fertility in high-income countries has raised concerns among the public, politicians, and social scientists.In this paper, six possible arguments for considering low fertility as a 'problem' -in the sense that political interventions might be warranted -are presented and discussed. CONCLUSIONOne argument, which is widely recognized and clearly relevant, is that low fertility exacerbates ageing and leads to lower population growth, which may have adverse aggregate-level economic effects.The environment may also be affected, but more likely in a positive way.A second argument focuses on low fertility stemming from subfecundity and possibly inadequate access to fertility treatments, which may be a source of strong dissatisfaction.Two other individual-level arguments are based on the idea that intentions to have few or no children may not actually align with individuals' own best interests, or that there is a gap between desired and intended fertility.However, the first idea lacks sufficient empirical evidence, while the second requires additional supporting ideas to form a strong argument for considering low fertility a problem.The fifth argument, about the possibility that low fertility may influence parents and children in ways that have economic and other implications for society, is also very challenging to substantiate empirically.The sixth argument is based on an entirely different perspective, where low fertility is considered as partly a result of economic uncertainty or other individual or societal factors that themselves constitute a problem, given their broadly adverse consequences for individuals' wellbeing. CONTRIBUTIONThe presentation and discussion of these arguments may help structure and clarify future discussions about whether steps should be taken to increase fertility.

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. Christiaans, T. (2011). Semi-endogenous growth when population is decreasing. Economics Bulletin 31(3): 2667-2673.
  2. Pertold-Gebicka, B. and Spolcova, D. (2022). Family size and subjective well-being in Europe: do more children make parents (un)happy? The Economic and Social Review 53(2): 89-136.

Related

Authors
Kravdal, Ø.
Affiliations
Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NO)
Corresponding author
Kravdal, Øystein
ORCID
Kravdal, Øystein
Venue
Demographic Research
Publisher
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Published
2025-09-05
Volume
53
Pages
373-418
ISSN
1435-9871 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.4054/demres.2025.53.14
OpenAlex
W4413974053
Cited by
5
References
110
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 1
FWCI
11.26
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by
Locations
  • Demographic Research (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Reproductive Medicine › Reproductive Health and Technologies
Keywords
low fertility, fertility decline, population aging, population growth, subfertility, access to fertility treatment, fertility intentions, economic uncertainty, fertility policy

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