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Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: A baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

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Lim, Stephen S, Allen, Kate, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Dandona, Lalit, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fullman, Nancy, Gething, Peter W, Goldberg, Ellen M +674 more·2016·The Lancet
DOI 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31467-2PMC PMC5055583
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Abstract

BACKGROUND: In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). METHODS: We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. FINDINGS: =0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. INTERPRETATION: GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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  • The most cited article was published in The Lancet in 2015 by researchers from the USA, titled "Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015".

    “The most cited article was published in the Lancet in 2015 by researchers from the USA. The title of the article is “Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015” [84].”

    From Towards Green and Sustainable Healthcare: A Literature Review and Research Agenda for Green Leadership in the Healthcare Sector (2023) · cites this paper as [84]

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  1. [4]International Council for Science International Social Science Council Review of targets for the Sustainable Development Goals: the science perspective 2015 International Council for Science Paris
  2. [24]International Organizations Clinic NYU School of Law UNDP Follow-up and review of the Sustainable Development Goals under the high level political forum 2016 New York University School of Law, United Nations Development Programme New York, NY
  3. [36]GBD 2015 Maternal Mortality Collaborators. Maternal mortality 1990 to 2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study. Lancet (in press).

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Lim, S. S., Allen, K., Bhutta, Z. A., Dandona, L., Forouzanfar, M. H., Fullman, N., Gething, P. W., Goldberg, E. M., Hay, S. I., Holmberg, M., Kinfu, Y., Kutz, M. J., Larson, H. J., Liang, X., Lopez, A. D., Lozano, R., McNellan, C. R., Mokdad, A. H., Mooney, M. D., Naghavi, M., Olsen, H. E., Pigott, D. M., Salomon, J. A., Vos, T., Wang, H., Abajobir, A. A., Abate, K. H., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K. M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdulle, A. M., Abraham, B., Abubakar, I., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Abu-Rmeileh, N. M. E., Abyu, G. Y., Achoki, T., Adebiyi, A. O., Adedeji, I. A., Afanvi, K. A., Afshin, A., Agarwal, A., Agrawal, A., Kiadaliri, A. A., Ahmadieh, H., Ahmed, K. Y., Akanda, A. S., Akinyemi, R. O., Akinyemiju, T. F., Akseer, N., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, K., Alam, U., Alasfoor, D., AlBuhairan, F. S., Aldhahri, S. F., Aldridge, R. W., Alemu, Z. A., Ali, R., Alkerwi, A., Alkhateeb, M. A., Alla, F., Allebeck, P., Allen, C., Al-Raddadi, R., Alsharif, U., Altirkawi, K. A., Martin, E. A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amare, A. T., Amberbir, A., Amegah, A. K., Amini, H., Ammar, W., Amrock, S. M., Andersen, H. H., Anderson, B. O., Anderson, G. M., Antonio, C. A. T., Anwari, P., Ärnlöv, J., Artaman, A., Asayesh, H., Asghar, R. J., Atique, S., Avokpaho, E. F. G. A., Awasthi, A., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Azzopardi, P., Bacha, U., Badawi, A., Balakrishnan, K., Banerjee, A., Barac, A., Barber, R., Barker-Collo, S. L., Bärnighausen, T., Barrero, L. H., Barrientos-Gutierrez, T., Basu, S., Bayou, T. A., Bazargan-Hejazi, S., Beardsley, J., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Béjot, Y., Bell, M. L., Bello, A. K., Bennett, D. A., Bensenor, I. M., Benzian, H., Berhane, A., Bernabé, E., Bernal, O. A., Betsu, B. D., Beyene, A. S., Bhala, N., Bhatt, S., Biadgilign, S., Bienhoff, K. A., Bikbov, B., Binagwaho, A., Bisanzio, D., Bjertness, E., Blore, J., Bourne, R. R. A., Brainin, M., Brauer, M., Brazinova, A., Breitborde, N. J. K., Broday, D. M., Brugha, T. S., Buchbinder, R., Butt, Z. A., Cahill, L. E., Campos-Nonato, I. R., Campuzano, J. C., Carabin, H., Cárdenas, R., Carrero, J. J., Carter, A., Casey, D., Caso, V., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Rivas, J. C., Catalá-López, F., Cavalleri, F., Cecílio, P., Chang, H.-Y., Chang, J.-C., Charlson, F. J., Che, X., Chen, A. Z., Chiang, P. P.-C., Chibalabala, M., Chisumpa, V. H., Choi, J.-Y. J., Chowdhury, R., Christensen, H., Ciobanu, L. G., Cirillo, M., Coates, M. M., Coggeshall, M., Cohen, A. J., Cooke, G. S., Cooper, C., Cooper, L. T., Cowie, B. C., Crump, J. A., Damtew, S. A., Dandona, R., Dargan, P. I., Neves, J. D., Davis, A. C., Davletov, K., de Castro, E. F., De Leo, D., Degenhardt, L., Del Gobbo, L. C., Deribe, K., Derrett, S., Des Jarlais, D. C., Deshpande, A., deVeber, G. A., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dhillon, P. K., Ding, E. L., Dorsey, E. R., Doyle, K. E., Driscoll, T. R., Duan, L., Dubey, M., Duncan, B. B., Ebrahimi, H., Endries, A. Y., Ermakov, S. P., Erskine, H. E., Eshrati, B., Esteghamati, A., Fahimi, S., Farid, T. A., Farinha, C. S. E. 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Affiliations
University of Washington (US)
ORCID
Venue
The Lancet
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2016-10
Volume
388
Issue
10053
Pages
1813-1850
ISSN
  • 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
  • 0140-6736
DOI
10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31467-2
PMC
PMC5055583
OpenAlex
W2508424442
Cited by
618
References
55
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239.24
Type
journal article
Language
en
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erratum (2017-01-07)
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  • Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam
  • Public Health England
  • Sun Yat-sen University
  • Kosin University
  • Seoul National University
  • Soonchunhyang University
  • Yonsei University
  • Kyung Hee University
  • Korea University
  • Banaras Hindu University
  • Universidad Nacional de Colombia
  • Central South University
  • Dalhousie University
  • Department for International Development
  • Universitat de València
  • Korea Health Industry Development Institute
  • Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre
  • Ministry of Health and Medical Education
  • Jordan University of Science and Technology
  • Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana
  • Universiteit Gent
  • Universiteit Stellenbosch
  • Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services
  • Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
  • Inyuvesi Yakwazulu-Natali
  • National Health Research Institutes
  • Haramaya University
  • Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
  • Sichuan University
  • Shanghai Jiao Tong University
  • Universitetet i Bergen
  • Universitair Medisch Centrum Groningen
  • North-West University
  • Universidad de Costa Rica
  • Hacettepe Üniversitesi
  • National Yang-Ming University
  • University of Haifa
  • Universität Bielefeld
  • Göteborgs Universitet
  • Universitat de Barcelona
  • Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences
  • Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
  • United Arab Emirates University
  • Universidad de la República Uruguay
  • National Taiwan University
  • Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental
  • Universidade do Porto
  • Università degli Studi di Salerno
  • Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
  • University of Cape Town
  • Arak University of Medical Sciences
  • Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
  • University of Gondar
  • Addis Ababa University
  • Golestan University of Medical Sciences
  • University of Peradeniya
  • Universität Ulm
  • International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh
  • International Medical University
  • Fakultet Medicinskih Nauka, Univerziteta U Kragujevcu
  • Università degli Studi di Perugia
  • Alborz University of Medical Sciences
  • Háskólinn í Reykjavík
  • INCLIVA Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria
  • Universidade Federal de Sergipe
  • Homi Bhabha National Institute
  • Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation
  • Western Sydney University
  • Rede de Química e Tecnologia
  • Laboratório Associado para a Química Verde
  • Indian Institute of Technology Ropar
  • Alfaisal University
  • Children's Hospital of Michigan
  • George Institute for Global Health
  • Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences
  • Aswan University
  • University of Health and Allied Sciences
  • Robert Koch Institut
  • National Institutes of Health
  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
  • University of California, San Diego
  • University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center
  • Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania
  • Feinberg School of Medicine
  • Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
  • Medical Center, University of Rochester
  • Research Institute, Nationwide Children's Hospital
  • School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town
  • Medical Research Council (MR/K010174/1, MR/K00669X/1, MC_UU_12011/1)
  • Russian Academy of Sciences
  • Wageningen University and Research
  • Bhabha Atomic Research Centre
  • National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre
  • School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
  • Erasmus Universitair Medisch Centrum Rotterdam
  • Norwegian Institute of Public Health
  • National Institute on Aging (R03AG043052, R21AG032572, R01AG030153)
  • National Human Genome Research Institute (U54HG007479)
  • National Cancer Institute
  • National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (P30ES000260)
  • National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities
  • Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
  • Sandia National Laboratories
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Human Rights and Development
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Global Health and Epidemiology
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Global Health Care Issues
Keywords
Sustainable Development Goals, Millennium Development Goals, socio-demographic index, modern contraceptive methods, under-five mortality, neonatal mortality, HIV incidence, tuberculosis incidence, hepatitis B incidence, childhood overweight, universal health coverage, health equity, SDG Index
MeSH terms
Conservation of Natural Resources, Goals, Disabled Persons, Persons with Disabilities, Health Status, Health Status Indicators, Humans, Insurance, Health, Risk Factors, Global Health, Cost of Illness, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Universal Health Insurance

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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