The DOI matches its Crossref record; 39 of the 39 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Beware of q2!
Abstract
Validation is a crucial aspect of any quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling. This paper examines one of the most popular validation criteria, leave-one-out cross-validated R2 (LOO q2). Often, a high value of this statistical characteristic (q2 > 0.5) is considered as a proof of the high predictive ability of the model. In this paper, we show that this assumption is generally incorrect. In the case of 3D QSAR, the lack of the correlation between the high LOO q2 and the high predictive ability of a QSAR model has been established earlier [Pharm. Acta Helv. 70 (1995) 149; J. Chemomet. 10(1996)95; J. Med. Chem. 41 (1998) 2553]. In this paper, we use two-dimensional (2D) molecular descriptors and k nearest neighbors (kNN) QSAR method for the analysis of several datasets. No correlation between the values of q2 for the training set and predictive ability for the test set was found for any of the datasets. Thus, the high value of LOO q2 appears to be the necessary but not the sufficient condition for the model to have a high predictive power. We argue that this is the general property of QSAR models developed using LOO cross-validation. We emphasize that the external validation is the only way to establish a reliable QSAR model. We formulate a set of criteria for evaluation of predictive ability of QSAR models.
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“Importantly, QSAR modeling was one of the first research fields that highlighted the importance of data curation,13 rigorous validation of developed models,14 and data reproducibility,15 that has recently become a significant concern to the scientific community.16”
From QSAR without borders (2020) · cites this paper as [14]
In the citing paper
“Similarly, rigorous model validation prior to prediction14 and the importance of rigor in modeling protocols291 have been articulated in several seminal publications in QSAR field292 and have already been adopted as regulatory requirements.84”
From QSAR without borders (2020) · cites this paper as [14]
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“and r 2 0 is the coefficient of determination between the experimental activity and predicted values and predicted versus experimental activity, respectively, based on regression through origin analysis (linear regression by least square method without a constant term) [19].”
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“322 Additional criteria and different metrics to verify the validity of a model have been 323 proposed as replacement [67, 68].”
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Chen, X., Xie, W., Yang, Y., Hua, Y., Xing, G., Liang, L., Deng, C., Wang, Y., Fan, Y., Liu, H., et al. (2020) · Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling · doi:10.1021/acs.jcim.0c00652 · Cited by 44
Thiazolides as Novel Antiviral Agents. 2. Inhibition of Hepatitis C Virus Replication
Stachulski, A. V., Pidathala, C., Row, E. C., Sharma, R., Berry, N. G., Lawrenson, A. S., Moores, S. L., Iqbal, M., Bentley, J., Allman, S. A., et al. (2011) · Journal of Medicinal Chemistry · doi:10.1021/jm201264t · Cited by 44
Sigroha, S., Narasimhan, B., Kumar, P., Khatkar, A., Ramasamy, K., Mani, V., Mishra, R. K., & Majeed, A. B. A. (2011) · Medicinal Chemistry Research · doi:10.1007/s00044-011-9906-8 · Cited by 44
“The value of q2 greater than 0.5 is the basic requirement for a QSAR model to be considered valid (Golbraikh and Tropsha, 2002).”
BackgroundInfluentialSun, J., Cai, S.-X., Yan, N., & Hu, M. Y. (2009) · European Journal of Medicinal Chemistry · doi:10.1016/j.ejmech.2009.11.043 · Cited by 44
BPSO-MLR and ANFIS based modeling of lower flammability limit
Bagheri, M., Rajabi, M. A., Mirbagheri, M., & Amin, M. (2011) · Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries · doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2011.10.005 · Cited by 44
QSAR Prediction of Ozone Tropospheric Degradation
Gramatica, P., Pilutti, P., & Papa, E. (2003) · QSAR & Combinatorial Science · doi:10.1002/qsar.200390026 · Cited by 44
Khan, M., Khan, A., Khan, A. U., Shakeel, M., Khan, K., Alabduljabbar, H., Najeh, T., & Gamil, Y. (2023) · Heliyon · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e23375 · Cited by 43
Nawaz, M. N., Akhtar, A. Y., Hassan, W., Khan, M. H. A., & Nawaz, M. M. (2024) · Transportation Geotechnics · doi:10.1016/j.trgeo.2024.101262 · Cited by 43
Casañola‐Martín, G. M., Marrero‐Ponce, Y., Khan, M. T. H., Khan, S. B., Torrens, F., Pérez‐Jiménez, F., Rescigno, A., & Abad, C. (2010) · Chemical Biology & Drug Design · doi:10.1111/j.1747-0285.2010.01032.x · Cited by 43
“The external validation process is necessary to assess the real predictive power of any QSAR model (39,40).”
Goyal, M., Dhanjal, J. K., Goyal, S., Tyagi, C., Hamid, R., & Grover, A. (2014) · BioMed Research International · doi:10.1155/2014/979606 · Cited by 43
“The enhanced predicted activity, high binding score, and the presence of crucial drug like molecular properties provide substantial evidence for consideration of these compounds as potent dual inhibitors for future prospective of AD treatment.”
Shahlaei, M., Madadkar‐Sobhani, A., Saghaie, L., & Fassihi, A. (2011) · Expert Systems with Applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.11.106 · Cited by 43
“There are some techniques to approximate the quality of the developed models (Golbraikh & Tropsha, 2002; Gramatica, Giani, & Papa, 2007).”
MethodBagheri, M., Bagheri, M., Gandomi, A. H., & Golbraikh, A. (2012) · Thermochimica Acta · doi:10.1016/j.tca.2012.05.008 · Cited by 43
Self-citationBaul, T. S. B., Paul, A., Pellerito, L., Scopelliti, M., Duthie, A., de Vos, D., Verma, R. P., & Englert, U. (2011) · Journal of Inorganic Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.jinorgbio.2011.10.008 · Cited by 43
Ghorbanzadeh, M., Fatemi, M. H., & Karimpour, M. (2012) · Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research · doi:10.1021/ie3006947 · Cited by 43
Nargotra, A., Sharma, S., Koul, J. L., Sangwan, P. L., Khan, I. A., Kumar, A., Taneja, S. C., & Koul, S. (2009) · European Journal of Medicinal Chemistry · doi:10.1016/j.ejmech.2009.05.004 · Cited by 43
Structure–activity relationship study on the binding of PBDEs with thyroxine transport proteins
Yang, W., Shen, S., Mu, L., & Yu, H. (2011) · Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry · doi:10.1002/etc.645 · Cited by 43
“predictive QSAR models because they satisfied the conditions that Golbraikh and Tropsha [26] suggested: q(2)> 0.”
MethodInfluentialMechanistic model for interpreting the toxic effects of sulfonamides on nitrification
Huang, X., Feng, Y., Hu, C., Xiao, X., Yu, D., & Zou, X. (2015) · Journal of Hazardous Materials · doi:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2015.11.037 · Cited by 43
Golzar, K., Modarress, H., & Amjad‐Iranagh, S. (2016) · International journal of greenhouse gas control · doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.08.008 · Cited by 43
Monte Carlo Method Based QSAR Studies of Mer Kinase Inhibitors in Compliance with OECD Principles
Kumar, P. P., & Kumar, A. (2017) · Drug Research · doi:10.1055/s-0043-119288 · Cited by 43
“The external predictive power of the built qsar models was further tested using criteria suggested by Golbraikh and Tropsha [32], Roy and Roy [33] and Ojha et al. [34].”
MethodŠkuta, C., Cortés‐Ciriano, I., Dehaen, W., Kříž, P., van Westen, G. J. P., Tetko, I. V., Bender, A., & Svozil, D. (2020) · Journal of Cheminformatics · doi:10.1186/s13321-020-00443-6 · Cited by 44
Metadata
- Authors
- Golbraikh, A., & Tropsha, A.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- Corresponding author
- Tropsha, Alexander
- Venue
- Journal of Molecular Graphics and Modelling
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2002-01
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 269-276
- ISSN
- 1093-3263 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2087661061
- Cited by
- 3,735
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 133 · 2025: 164 · 2024: 179 · 2023: 174 · 2022: 194 · 2021: 197 · 2020: 215 · 2019: 189 · 2018: 200 · 2017: 174 · 2016: 181 · 2015: 175 · 2014: 197 · 2013: 203 · 2012: 202
- FWCI
- 52.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Molecular Graphics and Modelling (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics › Drug Discovery › Computational Drug Discovery Methods
- Physical Sciences › Materials Science › Materials Chemistry › Machine Learning in Materials Science
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Atomic and Molecular Physics, and Optics › Advanced Chemical Physics Studies
- Keywords
- leave-one-out cross-validation, QSAR model validation, predictive power, external validation, 2D molecular descriptors, overfitting, model evaluation metrics
- MeSH terms
- Data Interpretation, Statistical, Ligands, Mathematical Computing, Models, Molecular, Receptors, Histamine H1, Steroids, Transcortin, Databases, Factual, Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship, Ecdysteroids
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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