Progress in cancer survival, mortality, and incidence in seven high-income countries 1995-2014 (ICBP SURVMARK-2): a population-based study
Open accessAbstract
Background Population-based cancer survival estimates provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of cancer services and can reflect the prospects of cure. As part of the second phase of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP), the Cancer Survival in High-Income Countries (SURVMARK-2) project aims to provide a comprehensive overview of cancer survival across seven high-income countries and a comparative assessment of corresponding incidence and mortality trends.Methods In this longitudinal, population-based study, we collected patient-level data on 3·9 million patients with cancer from population-based cancer registries in 21 jurisdictions in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK) for seven sites of cancer (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, and ovary) diagnosed between 1995 and 2014, and followed up until Dec 31, 2015. We calculated age-standardised net survival at 1 year and 5 years after diagnosis by site, age group, and period of diagnosis. We mapped changes in incidence and mortality to changes in survival to assess progress in cancer control.Findings In 19 eligible jurisdictions, 3 764 543 cases of cancer were eligible for inclusion in the study. In the 19 included jurisdictions, over 1995-2014, 1-year and 5-year net survival increased in each country across almost all cancer types, with, for example, 5-year rectal cancer survival increasing more than 13 percentage points in Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. For 2010-14, survival was generally higher in Australia, Canada, and Norway than in New Zealand, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. Over the study period, larger survival improvements were observed for patients younger than 75 years at diagnosis than those aged 75 years and older, and notably for cancers with a poor prognosis (ie, oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, and lung). Progress in cancer control (ie, increased survival, decreased mortality and incidence) over the study period was evident for stomach, colon, lung (in males), and ovarian cancer.Interpretation The joint evaluation of trends in incidence, mortality, and survival indicated progress in four of the seven studied cancers. Cancer survival continues to increase across high-income countries; however, international disparities persist. While truly valid comparisons require differences in registration practice, classification, and coding to be minimal, stage of disease at diagnosis, timely access to effective treatment, and the extent of comorbidity are likely the main determinants of patient outcomes. Future studies are needed to assess the impact of these factors to further our understanding of international disparities in cancer survival.Funding Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; The Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.
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The 5-year survival rate for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is 3-15%.
“a dismal 5-year survival rate of 3–15%”
From Early detection of pancreatic cancer (2020) · cites this paper as [4]
A study of 3.9 million patients with cancer in seven countries found that pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma had the lowest 5-year survival among the investigated cancer types, from 7.9% in the UK to 14.6% in Australia.
“found that pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma had the lowest 5-year survival rates among the investigated cancer types, ranging from 7·9% in the UK to 14·6% in Australia.4”
From Early detection of pancreatic cancer (2020) · cites this paper as [4]
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- Authors
- Arnold, M., Rutherford, M. J., Bardot, A., Ferlay, J., Andersson, T. M.-L., Myklebust, T. Å., Tervonen, H., Thursfield, V., Ransom, D., Shack, L., Woods, R. R., Turner, D., Leonfellner, S., Ryan, S., Saint-Jacques, N., De, P., McClure, C., Ramanakumar, A. V., Stuart-Panko, H., Engholm, G., Walsh, P. M., Jackson, C., Vernon, S., Morgan, E., Gavin, A., Morrison, D. S., Huws, D. W., Porter, G., Butler, J., Bryant, H., Currow, D. C., Hiom, S., Parkin, D. M., Sasieni, P., Lambert, P. C., Møller, B., Soerjomataram, I., & Bray, F.
- Affiliations
- Centre international de recherche sur le cancer (FR)
- University of Leicester (GB)
- Ålesund Hospital (NO)
- Cancer Institute of New South Wales (AU)
- Cancer Council Victoria (AU)
- Government of Western Australia Department of Health (AU)
- Alberta Health Services (CA)
- BC Cancer Agency (CA)
- CancerCare Manitoba (CA)
- Government of New Brunswick (CA)
- Dr. H. Bliss Murphy Cancer Centre (CA)
- Cancer Care Ontario (CA)
- McGill University Health Centre (CA)
- Saskatchewan Cancer Agency (CA)
- Danish Cancer Society (DK)
- National Cancer Registry (IE)
- Cancer Society of New Zealand (NZ)
- Public Health England (GB)
- Queen's University Belfast (GB)
- National Health Service Scotland (GB)
- Public Health Wales (GB)
- Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CA)
- Royal Marsden Hospital (GB)
- Cancer Research UK (GB)
- King's College London (GB)
- Cancer Registry of Norway (NO)
- Corresponding author
- Arnold, Melina
- ORCID
- Arnold, Melina
- Rutherford, Mark J
- Bardot, Aude
- Ferlay, Jacques
- Myklebust, Tor Åge
- Tervonen, Hanna
- Ransom, David
- Shack, Lorraine
- Woods, Ryan R
- Turner, Donna
- Ryan, Susan
- Ramanakumar, Agnihotram V
- Engholm, Gerda
- Jackson, Christopher
- Vernon, Sally
- Morgan, Eileen
- Gavin, Anna
- Morrison, David S
- Huws, Dyfed W
- Porter, Geoff
- Bryant, Heather
- Currow, David C
- Sasieni, Peter
- Lambert, Paul C
- Møller, Bjørn
- Soerjomataram, Isabelle
- Bray, Freddie
- Venue
- The Lancet Oncology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2019-11
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1493-1505
- ISSN
- 1470-2045 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6838671
- OpenAlex
- W2973153606
- Cited by
- 1,063
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 89 · 2025: 153 · 2024: 168 · 2023: 188 · 2022: 184 · 2021: 168 · 2020: 99 · 2019: 12
- FWCI
- 48.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Lancet Oncology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Portal (Queen's University Belfast) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- TSpace (University of Toronto) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- UTS ePRESS (University of Technology Sydney) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Kræftens Bekæmpelse
- Kreftforeningen
- Scottish Government
- Department of Health, Government of Western Australia
- Northern Ireland Environment Agency
- Cancer Society of New Zealand
- Cancer Focus Northern Ireland
- Cancer Council Victoria
- Cancer Institute NSW
- Cancer Research UK
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Financial Impacts of Cancer
- Keywords
- cancer survival, cancer mortality, cancer incidence, net survival, cancer control, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, colon cancer, rectal cancer, pancreatic cancer, lung cancer, ovarian cancer, high-income countries, cancer registry
- MeSH terms
- Cancer Survivors, Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Australia, Canada, Europe, Female, Humans, Income, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Neoplasms, New Zealand, Registries, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Time Factors, Incidence, Treatment Outcome, Developed Countries, Healthcare Disparities, Young Adult
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