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Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse

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HABER, STEPHEN, MENALDO, VICTOR·2011·American Political Science Review

DOI 10.1017/s0003055410000584

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Abstract

A large body of scholarship finds a negative relationship between natural resources and democracy. Extant cross-country regressions, however, assume random effects and are run on panel datasets with relatively short time dimensions. Because natural resource reliance is not an exogenous variable, this is not an effective strategy for uncovering causal relationships. Numerous sources of bias may be driving the results, the most serious of which is omitted variable bias induced by unobserved country-specific and time-invariant heterogeneity. To address these problems, we develop unique historical datasets, employ time-series centric techniques, and operationalize explicitly specified counterfactuals. We test to see if there is a long-run relationship between resource reliance and regime type within countries over time, both on a country-by-country basis and across several different panels. We find that increases in resource reliance are not associated with authoritarianism. In fact, in many specifications we generate results that suggest a resource blessing.

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Orrego, A. G. (2015) · Open Collections · doi:10.14288/1.0165764 · Cited by 23
The Two-step Model of Clustered Democratization
Houle, C., & Kayser, M. A. L. A. D. (2019) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002719875565 · Cited by 24
“…control variables as in Houle, Kayser, and Xiang (2016): GDP per capita logged (Bolt et al. 2018); oil income per capita (Ross and Mahdavi 2015; Haber and Menaldo 2011)5; the proportion of the population who are Muslim, Catholic, and Protestant; ethnic and religious fractionalization; a dummy…”
BackgroundMethod
The moving global Everest: A new challenge to global ideal theory as a necessary compass
Nili, S. (2016) · European Journal of Political Theory · doi:10.1177/1474885116677480 · Cited by 24
“For only two examples, see Haber and Menaldo (2011); Ross (2012).”
Background
The Political Origins of Institutional Weakness
Brinks, D. M., Levitsky, S., & Murillo, M. V. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108776608.001 · Cited by 24
Japan's ultimately unaccursed natural resources-financed industrialization
Mørck, R., & Nakamura, M. (2017) · Journal of the Japanese and International Economies · doi:10.1016/j.jjie.2017.12.004 · Cited by 23
“…2015; Diamond and Mosbacher, 2013; Gilberthorpe and Papyrakis, 2015; Mendoza et al., 2015; Sachs and Warner, 1999, 2001) and criticism (e.g. Haber and Menaldo, 2011; Arezki and van der Ploeg, 2011; Bjorvatn et al., 2012; Cotet and Tsui, 2013; Davis, 2013; James, 2015; Smith, 2015; Havranek…”
Partisan politics, welfare states, and environmental policy outputs in the OECD countries, 1975–2005
Lim, S., & Duit, A. (2017) · Regulation & Governance · doi:10.1111/rego.12138 · Cited by 23
UN involvement and civil war peace agreement implementation
Maekawa, W., Arı, B., & Gizelis, T. (2018) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-018-0602-9 · Cited by 23
“In addition, we control for population size, extracted from Haber and Menaldo (2011) dataset, because larger populations are associated with an increased likelihood of civil war onset (Collier and Hoeffler 2002, 2004) and higher levels of violence (Hultman et al. 2014).21 Civil war peace agreements…”
Method
Oil price volatility and political unrest: Prudence and protest in producer and consumer societies, 1980–2013
Vadlamannati, K., & de Soysa, I. (2020) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111719 · Cited by 23
How oil income and missing hydrocarbon rents data influence autocratic survival: A response to Lucas and Richter (2016)
Wright, J., & Frantz, E. (2017) · Research & Politics · doi:10.1177/2053168017719794 · Cited by 22
Economic Crisis, Natural Resources, and Irregular Leader Removal in Autocracies
Krishnarajan, S. (2019) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqz006 · Cited by 23

Authors: HABER, S., & MENALDO, V.
Affiliations: Hoover Institution (US)
University of Washington (US)
Corresponding author: HABER, STEPHEN
MENALDO, VICTOR
ORCID: MENALDO, VICTOR
Venue: American Political Science Review
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published: 2011-01-27
Volume: 105
Issue: 1
Pages: 1-26
ISSN: 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
1537-5943
DOI: 10.1017/s0003055410000584
OpenAlex: W2114260857
Cited by: 1,128
References: 105
Citations by year: 2026: 40 · 2025: 42 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 69 · 2022: 89 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 134 · 2019: 81 · 2018: 99 · 2017: 79 · 2016: 70 · 2015: 76 · 2014: 60 · 2013: 64 · 2012: 66
FWCI: 188.93
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
papers.ssrn.com
Licence: www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified)
Locations: American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
Keywords: resource curse, natural resources, authoritarianism, democracy, resource dependence, political regimes, omitted variable bias, counterfactual analysis, resource blessing

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Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse

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