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Cited by 182Evolutionary Psychology and Human BehaviorCultural Differences and ValuesSocial and Intergroup Psychology

Pathogens and Politics: Further Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism

Open access
Murray, Damian R., Schaller, Mark, Suedfeld, Peter·2013·PLoS ONE
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0062275PMC PMC3641067
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Abstract

According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat-famine-also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities.

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AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Two studies support the parasite-stress hypothesis: historical pathogen prevalence predicted authoritarian governance across 31 countries, and this link was statistically mediated by individual authoritarianism. In 90 Standard Cross-Cultural Sample societies, pathogen prevalence also predicted authoritarian governance even when controlling for famine, malnutrition, and warfare, with famine independently predicting authoritarianism.

Key findings

  • Study 1 (31 countries): pathogen prevalence predicted all four authoritarian-governance measures (|r| = .47–.67, p < .01) and individual F-scale authoritarianism (r = .65, p < .001); its unique regression effect on individual authoritarianism was β = .73 (p = .04) controlling GDP per capita, GINI, education, and life-expectancy residual.
  • Study 1 mediation: individual authoritarianism mediated the pathogen-prevalence→authoritarian-governance relation, accounting for 77% of the effect on political rights, 63% on civil liberties, 60% on democracy, and 37% on property rights; the reverse mediation model accounted for only 31–48%.
  • Study 2 (90 SCCS societies): both pathogen measures predicted authoritarian governance (r = .42 and .29, p < .01); in multiple regressions, pathogen prevalence (β = .47) and famine (β = .36) were unique predictors (p < .001), and with Low’s pathogen-stress measure pathogen stress (β = .36) and famine (β = .34) were unique predictors (p < .005).
  • Study 2 item-level: pathogen prevalence uniquely predicted 11 of 12 authoritarian-governance variables; famine uniquely predicted 8 of 12; malnutrition predicted 1; warfare predicted none.

Methods

  • Study 1: cross-national correlational and mediation analyses on 31 countries with data on authoritarian governance (Freedom House political rights/civil liberties, Heritage property rights, Vanhanen democracy index), individual authoritarianism (Meloen’s mean non-student F-scale scores), and historical pathogen prevalence (9 diseases; α = .84); controls were GDP per capita (1980), GINI (1991–1996), UN Education Index (1990), and life-expectancy residual; mediation used 10,000 nonparametric bootstrapped samples.
  • Study 2: analyses on 90 Standard Cross-Cultural Sample societies; authoritarian governance was a 12-item composite from Ross’s “concentration of political power” variables (α = .94); pathogen prevalence was measured with Cashdan & Steele’s 10-pathogen index (α = .81) and Low’s 7-item total pathogen stress index (α = .77; the two correlated r = .87); controls were famine, malnutrition, and warfare; analyses used correlations and multiple regressions on the composite and its 12 constituent variables.

Limitations

  • Stated: the results cannot identify the specific underlying processes, cannot distinguish whether pathogen and famine effects reflect one general stress mechanism or multiple threat-specific mechanisms, and cannot confidently infer individual-level processes from population-level data.
  • Stated: effect-size differences between the nation-state and SCCS samples caution against firm conclusions about actual effect sizes, because nation-state results may be spuriously inflated (e.g., colonial processes) and SCCS results may be attenuated by measurement error in ethnographic codings.
  • Evident: both studies are correlational in design and cannot establish causality; Study 1 had relatively low statistical power (N = 31), and the ancillary region-level SCCS test was nonsignificant (r(6) = .67, p = .14).

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Registry

Crossref · 10.1371/journal.pone.0062275

Cites

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Statistics

Claims the paper makes

0 of 82 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    The relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance was statistically mediated by individuals' authoritarian personalities.

    “this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance.”
    • Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · hedged
      “Results of all 4 mediation tests indicated that the relation between pathogen prevalence and authoritarian governance was significantly mediated by individual authoritarianism, with none of the bootstrapped confidence intervals containing zero.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures of individuals' authoritarian personalities.

    “Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities”
    • Also stated in: § Results and Discussion · boosted
      “individuals' authoritarianism scores were also strongly predicted by pathogen prevalence, r = .65 (p<.001).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance in the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare.

    “Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Across the four analyses, the mediated effect accounted for between 31-48% of the total effect of pathogen prevalence on individual authoritarianism.

    “Across the four analyses, the mediated effect accounted for between 31–48% of the total effect of pathogen prevalence on individual authoritarianism.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Pathogen prevalence strongly predicted all four measures of authoritarian governance (r's ranged from .47 to .67 in absolute value, all p's<.01).

    “Preliminary analyses revealed that pathogen prevalence strongly predicted all four measures of authoritarian governance (r’s ranged from .47 to .67 in absolute value, all p’s<.01).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
  • May combine two claims. 22
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 23

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Famine uniquely predicted authoritarianism in the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample analysis.

    “(One additional threat—famine—also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Individual authoritarianism was also predicted by GDP per capita, GINI, Education, and Life Expectancy Residual (r's ranged from .36 to .68 in absolute value, all p's<.05).

    “Individual authoritarianism was also predicted by GDP per capita, GINI, Education, and Life Expectancy Residual (r's ranged from .36 to .68 in absolute value, all p's<.05).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In regression, the control variables' predictive effects were all statistically nonsignificant, but pathogen prevalence had a significant unique effect on individual authoritarianism, β = .73 (p = .04).

    “Results revealed that the predictive effects of the control variables were all statistically nonsignificant (absolute values of β’s<.32, p’s >.10), but that—despite relatively low statistical power—there was a significant unique effect of pathogen prevalence, β = .73 (p = .04).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The relation between pathogen prevalence and authoritarian governance was significantly mediated by individual authoritarianism in all 4 mediation tests, with none of the bootstrapped confidence intervals containing zero.

    “Results of all 4 mediation tests indicated that the relation between pathogen prevalence and authoritarian governance was significantly mediated by individual authoritarianism, with none of the bootstrapped confidence intervals containing zero.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Both parasite stress measures were positive predictors of authoritarian governance (r's = .42 and .29, p's<.01).

    “Both parasite stress measures were positive predictors of authoritarian governance (r's = .42 and .29, p's<.01).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [15] Cashdan E, Steele M (in press) Pathogen prevalence, group bias, and collectivism in the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample. Hum Nature. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [36] Low BS (1988) Pathogen stress and polygyny in humans. In: L Betzig, M. Borgerhoff Mulder, and P Turke editors. Human Reproductive Behavior: A Darwinian Perspective.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 115–127.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    In Study 2, parasite prevalence uniquely predicted variability in authoritarian governance.

    “Results revealed that both parasite prevalence and famine uniquely predicted variability in authoritarian governance.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Study 1 results revealed that the relation between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance was mediated by individual authoritarianism-a result consistent with the parasite stress hypothesis and inconsistent with an alternative explanation based solely on colonial spread of political and economic institutions.

    “Results revealed that the relation between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance was mediated by individual authoritarianism—a result that is consistent with the parasite stress hypothesis, and inconsistent with an alternative explanation based solely on the colonial spread of political and economic institutions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Subjective perception of infection risk causes individuals to be more conformist, prefer conformity and obedience in others, respond more negatively toward nonconformists, and endorse more conservative socio-political attitudes.

    “empirical evidence reveals that the subjective perception of infection risk causes individuals to be more conformist, to prefer conformity and obedience in others, to respond more negatively toward others who fail to conform, and to endorse more conservative socio-political attitudes [10], [11], [12], [13], [14].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [10] EG Helzer, 2011, Dirty liberals! Reminders of physical cleanliness influence moral and political attitudes, Psychol Sci source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [11] Y Inbar, 2009, Conservatives are more easily disgusted than liberals, Cognition Emotion source

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    • cites [12] A Jones, 2008, Moral hypervigilance: The influence of disgust sensitivity in the moral domain, Emotion source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Authoritarian political systems are characterized by nepotism and ethnocentrism.

    “authoritarian political systems are also characterized by nepotism and ethnocentrism [20].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [20] Vestal TM (1999) Ethiopia: A post-Cold War African state. Westport, USA: Greenwood Publishing Group.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Economic variables provide partial answers to why governance in some states and societies is more authoritarian than in others.

    “Economic variables—including the overall availability of economic resources and the manner in which those resources are distributed—provide partial answers to that question [3], [4], [5], [6].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [3] Acemoglu D, Robinson JA (2005) Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [4] S Haber, 2011, Do natural resources fuel authoritarianism? A reappraisal of the resource curse, Am Polit Sci Rev source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [5] Perry RL, Robertson JD (2002) Comparative analyses of nations: Quantitative approaches. Boulder CO: Westview Press.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In countries and cultures with historically higher parasite prevalence, people are less individualistic, exhibit lower openness, are more likely to conform, and more strongly endorse binding moral values.

    “in countries and cultures characterized by historically higher prevalence of parasitic diseases, people are less individualistic, exhibit lower levels of dispositional openness to new things, are more likely to conform to majority opinion, and more strongly endorse “binding” moral values that emphasize group loyalty, obedience, and respect for authority [15], [16], [17], [18], [19].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [15] Cashdan E, Steele M (in press) Pathogen prevalence, group bias, and collectivism in the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample. Hum Nature. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [16] CL Fincher, 2008, Pathogen prevalence predicts human cross-cultural variability in individualism/collectivism, Proc R Soc B source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [17] DR Murray, 2011, On the origins of cultural differences in conformity: Four tests of the pathogen prevalence hypothesis, Pers Soc Psychol B source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Results from several initial studies support the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarian governance.

    “Although results from several initial studies support this “parasite stress” hypothesis of authoritarian governance [7], [8]”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [7] R Thornhill, 2009, Parasites, democratization, and the liberalization of values across contemporary countries, Biol Rev source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [8] R Thornhill, 2010, Zoonotic and non-zoonotic diseases in relation to human personality and societal values: Support for the parasite-stress model, Ev Psychol source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Thornhill and colleagues found higher parasite stress associated with less democratic, more authoritarian political systems across four measures (N's >192, absolute r's >.45, p's<.001).

    “Higher levels of parasite stress were associated with less democratic, more highly authoritarian political systems (N’s >192, absolute r’s >.45, p’s<.001).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [7] R Thornhill, 2009, Parasites, democratization, and the liberalization of values across contemporary countries, Biol Rev source

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Previous evidence indicates that authoritarianism may be associated with lack of valued resources or other threats to human welfare.

    “Given previous evidence that authoritarianism may be associated with lack of valued resources or by other threats to human welfare [44], [45], [46] we also included 3 additional measures in our analyses.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [44] TH Henriksen, 2001, The rise and decline of rogue states, J Int Aff

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [45] JT Mathews, 1989, Redefining security, Foreign Aff source

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    • cites [46] GM Wilson, 1968, A new look at the problem of “Japanese Fascism.”, Comp Stud Soc Hist source

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    Premisecitation

    Inequitable distribution of wealth predicts variation in democratic versus authoritarian governance.

    “Inequitable distribution of wealth predicts variation in democratic versus authoritarian governance [6].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [6] Vanhanen T (2003) Democratization: a comparative analysis of 170 countries. New York, NY: Routledge. source

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The F Scale has been validated in both Western and non-Western cultures.

    “This scale has been validated in both Western and non-Western cultures [37].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [37] Kool VK, Ray JJ (1983) Authoritarianism across cultures. Bombay: Himalaya Publishing House.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The mediation results suggest that the ecological prevalence of infectious diseases predicts individual authoritarian personalities, and these individual-level dispositions in turn give rise to and sustain authoritarian systems of governance.

    “These mediation results suggest that the ecological prevalence of infectious diseases predicts the individual authoritarian personalities of people living within that ecological region, and these individual-level dispositions in turn give rise to (and sustain) authoritarian systems of governance.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Institutionalized forms of governance reflect the attitudes and values of the individuals who populate the local ecology.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    The 12-item composite index of authoritarian governance had Cronbach's alpha = .94.

    “This 12-item index (Cronbach’s alpha = .94) served as the primary measure of authoritarian governance.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted).

    Premisecitation

    European colonial powers were more likely to establish long-lasting democratic political systems and economic institutions in regions with lower incidences of infectious diseases.

    “European colonial powers were more likely to establish long-lasting democratic political systems and economic institutions in regions characterized by lower incidences of infectious diseases [31], [32].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [31] D Acemoglu, 2001, The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation, Am Econ Rev source

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    • cites [32] W Easterly, 2003, Tropics, germs, and crops: How endowments influence economic development, J Monetary Econ source

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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Previous research indicates that authoritarian governance is associated with low levels of economic development.

    “Previous research indicates that authoritarian governance is associated with low levels of economic development [5].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] Perry RL, Robertson JD (2002) Comparative analyses of nations: Quantitative approaches. Boulder CO: Westview Press.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    In statistical terms, the alternative explanation implies an indirect relation between disease prevalence and individuals' authoritarian attitudes mediated by authoritarian governance.

    “In statistical analytic terms, the alternative explanation implies an indirect relation between disease prevalence and individuals' authoritarian attitudes that is statistically mediated by authoritarian governance”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Following recoding, all 12 SCCS political variables were positively inter-correlated; r's ranged from .26 to .77, with median r = .54.

    “(Following the recoding, all 12 variables were positively inter-correlated; r’s ranged from .26 to .77, with median r = .54.)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The colonial-establishment explanation implies a direct causal influence of disease prevalence on state-level authoritarian governance, which may have downstream consequences for individual-level authoritarian attitudes.

    “The colonial-establishment-of-institutions explanation implies a direct causal influence of disease prevalence on state-level authoritarian governance, which may in turn have downstream consequences for individual-level authoritarian attitudes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The 3-item malnutrition index has Cronbach's alpha = .63.

    “for the 3-item scale, Cronbach’s alpha = .63”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [47] R Dirks, 1993, Starvation and famine: Cross-cultural codes and some hypothesis tests, Cross-Cult Res source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Ross's factor analytic results revealed that 12 variables loaded highly on a common underlying factor called 'concentration of political power'-a defining feature of authoritarian political systems.

    “Factor analytic results reported by Ross revealed that 12 of these variables loaded highly on a common underlying factor, which Ross called “concentration of political power”—a defining feature of authoritarian political systems.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [35] MH Ross, 1983, Political decision making and conflict: Additional cross-cultural codes scales, Ethnology source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The parasite stress hypothesis implies an indirect relation between disease prevalence and authoritarian governance mediated by individuals' authoritarian attitudes.

    “whereas the parasite stress hypothesis implies an indirect relation between disease prevalence and authoritarian governance that is statistically mediated by individuals' authoritarian attitudes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Countries with higher parasite prevalence are characterized by stronger family ties, increased intrastate ethnic conflict, and several indicators of increased ethnocentrism.

    “countries characterized by higher prevalence of parasitic diseases are also characterized by stronger family ties, increased frequency of intrastate ethnic conflict, and several indicators of increased ethnocentrism [24], [25], [26]”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [24] CL Fincher, 2008, Assortive sociality, limited dispersal, infectious disease and the genesis of the global pattern of religious diversity, Proc R Soc B source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [25] K Letendre, 2010, Does infectious disease cause global variation in the frequency of intrastate armed conflict and civil war?, Biol Rev source

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    • cites [26] CL Fincher, 2012, Parasite-stress promotes in-group assortative sociality: The cases of strong family ties and heightened religiosity, Behav Brain Sci source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The parasite stress hypothesis implies a more direct causal influence of disease prevalence on individuals' authoritarian attitudes, which in turn would be expected to have a consequent influence on state-level systems of government.

    “Conversely, the parasite stress hypothesis implies a more direct causal influence of disease prevalence on individuals' authoritarian attitudes, which in turn would be expected to have a consequent influence on state-level systems of government.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The historical pathogen prevalence measure is internally reliable; across a worldwide sample of 160 countries, the 9-item index has Cronbach's alpha = .84.

    “This measure is internally reliable; across a worldwide sample of 160 countries, the 9-item index has Cronbach's alpha = .84”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [29] DR Murray, 2010, Historical prevalence of disease within 230 geopolitical regions: A tool for investigating origins of culture, J Cross Cult Psychol source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Research on the authoritarian personality indicates some relation between politically entrenched authoritarian systems and individually expressed authoritarian personality traits.

    “Research on “the authoritarian personality” of individuals indicates some relation between politically entrenched authoritarian systems of governance and individually expressed authoritarian personality traits”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [1] Adorno T, Frenkel-Brunswick E, Levinson D, Sanford R (1950) The authoritarian personality. New York, NY: Harper &amp; Row.

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    • cites [2] Altemeyer B (1996) The authoritarian specter. Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press.

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    • cites [33] Meloen J (1996) Authoritarianism, democracy, and education: A preliminary empirical 70-nation global indicators study. In: R. F Farnen, H Dekker, R Meyenberg, &amp; D. B German, editors. Democracy, Socialization and Conflicting Loyalties in East and West. UK: St. Martin’s Press. pp. 20–38. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The Standard Cross-Cultural Sample consists of 186 worldwide cultural populations, many of which are small-scale aboriginal societies.

    “The Standard Cross-Cultural Sample (SCCS) consists of 186 worldwide cultural populations, many of which are small-scale aboriginal societies.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [34] GP Murdock, 1969, Standard cross-cultural sample, Ethnology source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    These results are consistent with the logical implications of the parasite stress hypothesis and inconsistent with an alternative explanation that the correlation between disease prevalence and authoritarianism is based solely on colonial establishment of state-level institutions.

    “These results are consistent with the logical implications of the parasite stress hypothesis, and are inconsistent with an alternative explanation suggesting that the correlation between disease prevalence and authoritarianism is based solely on colonial establishment of state-level institutions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Meloen found that authoritarianism was inversely related to the mean level of education within a country.

    “Meloen [33] found that authoritarianism was inversely related to the mean level of education within a country.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [33] Meloen J (1996) Authoritarianism, democracy, and education: A preliminary empirical 70-nation global indicators study. In: R. F Farnen, H Dekker, R Meyenberg, &amp; D. B German, editors. Democracy, Socialization and Conflicting Loyalties in East and West. UK: St. Martin’s Press. pp. 20–38. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The 4-item famine index has Cronbach's alpha = .90.

    “for the 4-item scale, Cronbach’s alpha = .90”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [47] R Dirks, 1993, Starvation and famine: Cross-cultural codes and some hypothesis tests, Cross-Cult Res source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    These results cannot address deeper questions about the specific underlying processes through which the relation between parasite stress and authoritarian governance may have emerged.

    “these results cannot address deeper questions about the specific underlying processes through which this relation may have emerged.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The results suggest that the prevalence of a disease-irrelevant threat-famine-may also uniquely encourage authoritarian political governance, consistent with past research linking other threats to authoritarianism.

    “These results also suggest that the prevalence of a disease-irrelevant threat—famine—may also uniquely encourage authoritarian political governance, which is consistent with past research that links other threats to authoritarianism [41], [42].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [41] S Feldman, 1997, Perceived threat and authoritarianism, Polit Psychol source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [42] SM Sales, 1973, Threat as a factor in authoritarianism: An analysis of archival data, J Pers Soc Psychol source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    These results do not challenge the important role of colonial history in explaining contemporary nation-level differences in political and economic outcomes; they simply indicate that a colonial-spread-of-institutions process cannot provide a complete explanation for the relation between parasite prevalence and authoritarianism.

    “These results do not challenge the important role of colonial history in explaining contemporary nation-level differences in political and economic outcomes [31], [32]. The results simply indicate that a colonial-spread-of-institutions process cannot provide a complete explanation for the relation between parasite prevalence and authoritarianism.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [31] D Acemoglu, 2001, The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation, Am Econ Rev source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [32] W Easterly, 2003, Tropics, germs, and crops: How endowments influence economic development, J Monetary Econ source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The 2-item warfare index has Cronbach's alpha = .45.

    “for the 2-item scale, Cronbach’s alpha = .45”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [35] MH Ross, 1983, Political decision making and conflict: Additional cross-cultural codes scales, Ethnology source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Thornhill and colleagues noted that the democratic transitions in North America and Europe were preceded by dramatic reductions in the prevalence of infectious disease.

    “Thornhill and colleagues [7] noted that the democratic transitions in North America and Europe were preceded by dramatic reductions in the prevalence of infectious disease.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [7] R Thornhill, 2009, Parasites, democratization, and the liberalization of values across contemporary countries, Biol Rev source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Overall, the results support the parasite stress hypothesis, with both the authoritarian composite measure and all but one of its twelve constituent parts producing convergent results.

    “Overall, these results support the parasite stress hypothesis, with both the authoritarian composite measure and all but one of its twelve constituent parts producing convergent results.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The finding that the threat of famine predicts authoritarian governance in small-scale societies is convergent with psychological research showing that individual-level authoritarianism is generally higher during times of resource scarcity.

    “The finding that the threat of famine predicts authoritarian governance in small-scale societies is also convergent with psychological research showing that individual-level authoritarianism is generally higher during times of resource scarcity [42], [49].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [42] SM Sales, 1973, Threat as a factor in authoritarianism: An analysis of archival data, J Pers Soc Psychol source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [49] RM Doty, 1991, Threat and authoritarianism in the United States, 1978-1987, J Pers Soc Psychol source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    An authoritarian personality serves a self-protective function.

    “It has been suggested that an authoritarian personality serves a self-protective function [54].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [54] P Jugert, 2009, A motivational model of authoritarianism: Integrating personal and situational determinants, Polit Psychol source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    This relationship is consistent with a wide range of additional evidence indicating that individuals are sensitive to disease-connoting cues within their immediate environment, and respond to these cues with functionally adaptive shifts in cognition and behavior.

    “This relationship is consistent with a wide range of additional evidence indicating that individuals are sensitive to disease-connoting cues within their immediate environment, and respond to these cues with functionally adaptive shifts in cognition and behavior [58], [59].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [58] AC Little, 2011, Exposure to visual cues of pathogen contagion changes preferences for masculinity and symmetry in opposite-sex faces, Proc R Soc B source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [59] M Schaller, 2011, The behavioural immune system and the psychology of human sociality, Phil Trans R Soc B source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    One cannot confidently draw inferences about individual-level processes from population-level data.

    “Although one cannot confidently draw inferences about individual-level processes from population-level data, the results of Study 1 may have other implications at the psychological level of analysis.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
44 of 44

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Alternative explanations for the initial cross-national results remain unaddressed.

    “Although results from several initial studies support this “parasite stress” hypothesis of authoritarian governance [7], [8], alternative explanations for those results remain unaddressed.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Institutionalized forms of governance reflect the attitudes and values of the individuals who populate the local ecology.

    “To the extent that institutionalized forms of governance reflect the attitudes and values of the individuals who populate the local ecology, these lines of research have implications for predicting worldwide variability in authoritarian governance”
2 of 2

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Statistics recomputed

Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.

  • Not confirmedr(6) = 0.67reported p = .14 · recomputed p = .069

    “r(6) = .67, p = .14”

1 of 1

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Table 1 reports an impossible set of correlations

    Major

    The three reported correlations among F-scale scores, pathogen prevalence, and GINI cannot all hold for the same 31 countries. Given correlations of .65 between F-scale scores and pathogens and -.60 between pathogens and GINI, the largest mathematically possible F-scale-GINI correlation is about .22, not .51; at least one reported value is wrong.

  • A Table 1 correlation lacks its significance marker

    Minor

    With the stated N = 31, the unmarked correlation of .38 is larger in absolute value than the correlation of -.36 marked as significant at p<.05. Under the table's stated significance convention, .38 should also be marked.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Perry RL, Robertson JD (2002) Comparative analyses of nations: Quantitative approaches. Boulder CO: Westview Press.
  2. TH Henriksen, 2001, The rise and decline of rogue states, J Int Aff, 54, 349
  3. Murdock GP (1949). Social structure. Oxford, UK: Macmillan..

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Murray, D. R., Schaller, M., & Suedfeld, P.
Affiliations
University of British Columbia (CA)
Corresponding author
Murray, Damian R.
ORCID
Venue
PLoS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published
2013-05-01
Volume
8
Issue
5
Pages
e62275
ISSN
1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0062275
PMC
PMC3641067
OpenAlex
W2091672012
Semantic Scholar
f9d004dddfe5ece8afb2e40427c0d28b990a832c
Cited by
182
References
69
Citations by year
2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 18
FWCI
16.71
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Evolutionary Psychology and Human Behavior
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Cultural Differences and Values
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
Keywords
parasite prevalence, authoritarianism, authoritarian governance, authoritarian personality, small-scale societies, famine, cultural differences, cross-national differences
MeSH terms
Animals, Authoritarianism, Cross-Cultural Comparison, Food Supply, Government, Humans, Parasitic Diseases, Politics, Regression Analysis, Social Conditions, Social Dominance, Starvation, Warfare, Prevalence, Gross Domestic Product

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-09.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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