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Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse
Open accessAbstract
A large body of scholarship finds a negative relationship between natural resources and democracy. Extant cross-country regressions, however, assume random effects and are run on panel datasets with relatively short time dimensions. Because natural resource reliance is not an exogenous variable, this is not an effective strategy for uncovering causal relationships. Numerous sources of bias may be driving the results, the most serious of which is omitted variable bias induced by unobserved country-specific and time-invariant heterogeneity. To address these problems, we develop unique historical datasets, employ time-series centric techniques, and operationalize explicitly specified counterfactuals. We test to see if there is a long-run relationship between resource reliance and regime type within countries over time, both on a country-by-country basis and across several different panels. We find that increases in resource reliance are not associated with authoritarianism. In fact, in many specifications we generate results that suggest a resource blessing.
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“Economic variables—including the overall availability of economic resources and the manner in which those resources are distributed—provide partial answers to that question [3], [4], [5], [6].”
From Pathogens and Politics: Further Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013) · cites this paper as [4]
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“…have been constructed to improve the limited samples in the IMF GFS data (Baskaran & Bigsten, 2013; Benedek, Crivelli, Gupta, & Muthoora, 2014; Haber & Menaldo, 2011); however, the proliferation of multiple datasets that rely on dissimilar methodologies, and which often poorly document…”
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Politics, markets, and rare commodities: responses to Chinese rare earth policy
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“VECM can be used when there is not a strong theoretic case to be made for strict unidirectional causality (Sims, 1980; Freeman et al., 1989; Enders and Sandler, 1993; Wood and Peake, 1998; Haber and Menaldo, 2011).”
BackgroundGetting Religion Right in Civil Wars
Toft, M. D. (2021) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002721997895 · Cited by 48
“Oil income (in $2007) is from Ross and Mahdavi (2015) and Haber and Menaldo (2011).”
BackgroundRESOURCE CURSE, POLITICAL ENTRY, AND DEADWEIGHT COSTS
Tsui, K. K. (2010) · Economics and Politics · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0343.2010.00373.x · Cited by 40
Democracy and Financial Crisis
Lipscy, P. Y. (2017) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818318000279 · Cited by 44
Segal, P. (2012) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.029 · Cited by 55
“Karl (1997) argued that a large resource sector is itself likely to produce poor institutions of government, but this has been contested by Haber and Menaldo (2011), who find statistically that resource wealth does not cause poor political or institutional outcomes in general.”
BackgroundThe rule of law: Measurement and deep roots
Gutmann, J., & Voigt, S. (2018) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.04.001 · Cited by 47
How Collateral Laws Shape Lending and Sectoral Activity
Calomiris, C. W., Larraín, M., Liberti, J. M., & Sturgess, J. D. (2016) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w21911 · Cited by 40
Metadata
- Authors
- HABER, S., & MENALDO, V.
- Affiliations
- Hoover Institution (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- HABER, STEPHEN
- MENALDO, VICTOR
- ORCID
- MENALDO, VICTOR
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2011-01-27
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-26
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2114260857
- Cited by
- 1,128
- References
- 105
- Citations by year
- 2026: 40 · 2025: 42 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 69 · 2022: 89 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 134 · 2019: 81 · 2018: 99 · 2017: 79 · 2016: 70 · 2015: 76 · 2014: 60 · 2013: 64 · 2012: 66
- FWCI
- 188.93
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- papers.ssrn.com
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
- Keywords
- resource curse, natural resources, authoritarianism, democracy, resource dependence, political regimes, omitted variable bias, counterfactual analysis, resource blessing
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