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Cited by 265Political Conflict and GovernancePolitical Theory and DemocracyElectoral Systems and Political Participation

Which Democracies Will Last? Coups, Incumbent Takeovers, and the Dynamic of Democratic Consolidation

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Svolik, Milan W.·2015·British Journal of Political Science
DOI 10.1017/s0007123413000550
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Abstract

This article develops a change-point model of democratic consolidation that conceives of consolidation as a latent quality to be inferred rather than measured directly. Consolidation is hypothesized to occur when a large, durable, and statistically significant decline in the risk of democratic breakdowns occurs at a well-defined point during a democracy's lifetime. This approach is applied to new data on democratic survival that distinguish between breakdowns due to military coups and incumbent takeovers. We find that the risk of an authoritarian reversal by either process differs both in its temporal dynamic and determinants. Crucially, new democracies consolidate against the risk of coups but not incumbent takeovers, suggesting that distinct mechanisms account for the vulnerability of new democracies to these alternative modes of breakdown.

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Authors
Svolik, M. W.
Corresponding author
Svolik, Milan W.
ORCID
Svolik, Milan W.
Venue
British Journal of Political Science
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published
2014-03-26
Volume
45
Issue
4
Pages
715-738
ISSN
  • 0007-1234 (ISSN-L)
  • 1469-2112
DOI
10.1017/s0007123413000550
OpenAlex
W3121978759
Cited by
265
References
6
Citations by year
2026: 12 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 2
FWCI
24.97
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified)
Locations
  • British Journal of Political Science (publishedVersion)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Keywords
democratic consolidation, democratic survival, military coups, democratic breakdown, change-point models, new democracies

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