A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?
Open accessAbstract
Less than 30 years after Fukuyama and others declared liberal democracy’s eternal dominance, a third wave of autocratization is manifest. Gradual declines of democratic regime attributes characterize contemporary autocratization. Yet, we lack the appropriate conceptual and empirical tools to diagnose and compare such elusive processes. Addressing that gap, this article provides the first comprehensive empirical overview of all autocratization episodes from 1900 to today based on data from the Varieties of Democracy Project (V-Dem). We demonstrate that a third wave of autocratization is indeed unfolding. It mainly affects democracies with gradual setbacks under a legal façade. While this is a cause for concern, the historical perspective presented in this article shows that panic is not warranted: the current declines are relatively mild and the global share of democratic countries remains close to its all-time high. As it was premature to announce the “end of history” in 1992, it is premature to proclaim the “end of democracy” now.
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The world is now in a third wave of autocratization, disproportionally affecting a large number of established democracies.
“The world is now in a ' third wave of autocratization, ' disproportionally affecting a large number of established democracies (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”
From Parties, Civil Society, and the Deterrence of Democratic Defection (2020) · cites this paper as Lührmann and Lindberg 2019
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“4 Autocratization is defined by Lührmann and Lindberg [42] as “substantial de-facto decline of core institutional requirements for electoral democracy”.”
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“Lührmann and Lindberg (2019) have estimated that such cases make up 68 percent of contemporary instances of autocratization.”
BackgroundInfluentialCan Online Civic Education Induce Democratic Citizenship? Experimental Evidence from a New Democracy
Finkel, S. E., Neundorf, A., & Ramirez, E. G. R. (2021) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12765 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Rothstein, B. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192894908.001.0001 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Institutionalising electoral uncertainty and authoritarian regime survival
Bernhard, M. H., Edgell, A. B., & Lindberg, S. I. (2019) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12355 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
“Today, electoral autocracy has become the modal type of dictatorship in the world (Lührmann & Lindberg 2019).”
Self-citationNarrative strategies in a nondemocratic setting: Moscow’s urban policy debates
Schlaufer, C., Gafurova, D., Zhiryakova, E., Shikhova, M., & Belyaeva, N. (2021) · Policy Studies Journal · doi:10.1111/psj.12445 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Measuring Democratic BackslidingPreprint
Little, A. T., & Meng, A. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4327307 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Wuttke, A., Schimpf, C. H., & Schoen, H. (2022) · Swiss Political Science Review · doi:10.1111/spsr.12548 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
“In light of the current wave of autocratization (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019), scholars increasingly investigate what kind of political system ordinary citizens want and whether they endorse the principles that underpin the Western model of liberal-democratic governance. populistische und…”
Political Oppositions in Democratic and Authoritarian Regimes: A State-of-the-Field(s) Review
Helms, L. (2022) · Government and Opposition · doi:10.1017/gov.2022.25 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
“In competitive autocracies that emerged from ‘ autocratized ’ liberal or electoral democracies (see Lührmann and Lindberg 2019), opposition parties were, as it were, inherited from those countries ’ more democratic periods, which obviously does not preclude the formation of genuinely new parties.”
Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding
Knutsen, C. H., Marquardt, K. L., Seim, B., Coppedge, M., Edgell, A. B., Medzihorsky, J., Pemstein, D., Teorell, J., Gerring, J., & Lindberg, S. I. (2024) · PS Political Science & Politics · doi:10.1017/s104909652300077x · Cited by 51 · see citing works
“…point 1, many scholars agree that recent backslid-ing has occurred predominantly through processes driven by elected incumbents who gradually concentrate power in their own hands — also known as “ executive aggrandizement ” (Bermeo 2016; Levitsky and Ziblatt 2018; Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationWunsch, N., Jacob, M. S., & Derksen, L. (2025) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123424000711 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
State of the world 2024: 25 years of autocratization – democracy trumped?
Nord, M., Angiolillo, F., Good God, A., & Lindberg, S. I. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2487825 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Self-citationDynamic dictators: improving the research agenda on autocratization and authoritarian resilience
Sinkkonen, E. (2021) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2021.1903881 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Toepler, S., Zimmer, A., Levy, K., & Fröhlich, C. (2022) · Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly · doi:10.1177/08997640221112890 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Competition in a Populist Authoritarian Regime: The June 2018 Dual Elections in Turkey
Sözen, Y. (2019) · South European Society and Politics · doi:10.1080/13608746.2019.1688515 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
“…incumbents and suffocating the opposition.1 As delineated below, Turkey’s recent and continuous authoritarian slide2 or its protracted ‘autocratisation’ (Lührmann & Lindberg 2019) occurred through ‘executive aggrandisement’ (Bermeo 2016) by a populist party which claimed that increasing the…”
BackgroundMethodMeyer‐Sahling, J., & Tóth, F. (2020) · NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy · doi:10.2478/nispa-2020-0016 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
“Much of the debate so far has focused on the concept (Bermeo 2016, Waldner and Lust 2018), measurement and scope (Mechkova et al. 2017, Lührmann and Lindberg 2019), the drivers (Herman 2016, Mickey et al. 2017) and safeguards (Ginsburg and Huq 2018, Keleman and Blauberger 2016) against democratic…”
BackgroundAcademic freedom growth and decline episodes
Lott, L. (2023) · Higher Education · doi:10.1007/s10734-023-01156-z · Cited by 47 · see citing works
“An episode ends when there is a temporary stagnation on the AFI with no further increase/decline of 0.01 points in 4 years or when the AFI increases by 0.03 points, from one year to the next (compare Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019, for a discussion on thresholds).”
InfluentialCommunication and democratic erosion: The rise of illiberal public spheres
Bennett, W. L., & Kneuer, M. (2023) · European Journal of Communication · doi:10.1177/02673231231217378 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
“While backsliding has emerged as an umbrella term, it has been criticized because it insinuates a rather accidental, involuntary, and uncon-scious reversal (Bogaards, 2018; Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019).”
BackgroundFiddling while Democracy Burns: Partisan Reactions to Weak Democracy in Latin America
Singer, M. (2021) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592721002899 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
“In the majority of these cases, the threat to democracy is not from outsiders looking to overthrow it via a coup but instead comes from elected insiders who weaken democracy from within by restricting electoral competition and curtailing the rights of their opponents (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019).”
BackgroundBlühdorn, I., & Butzlaff, F. (2020) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2019.1707808 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Conceptualizing and Measuring Autocratization Episodes
Pelke, L., & Croissant, A. (2021) · Swiss Political Science Review · doi:10.1111/spsr.12437 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
“In sum, we suggest an autocratization measure that builds on the existing operationalization by Lührmann and Lindberg (2019) but adds confidence intervals to account for measurement choice.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialCOVID-19 and erosion of democracy
Lewkowicz, J., Woźniak, M., & Wrzesiński, M. (2021) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105682 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Support for insider parties: The role of political trust in a longitudinal-comparative perspective
Petrarca, C. S., Giebler, H., & Weßels, B. (2020) · Party Politics · doi:10.1177/1354068820976920 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Bryan, J. D. (2023) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/00104140231152784 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
“The phenomenon of elected leaders claiming to support democracy while simultaneously attacking the very democratic institutions that brought them to power has characterized the global “third wave of autocratization” (Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019).”
Administrative responses to democratic backsliding: When is bureaucratic resistance justified?
Bauer, M. W. (2023) · Regulation & Governance · doi:10.1111/rego.12567 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
“Liberal democracies worldwide are imperiled from within by the rise of populist, illiberal, and outright authoritarian movements (Diamond, 2022; Lührmann & Lindberg, 2019; Pelke & Croissant, 2021; Wiebrecht et al., 2023).”
Background(2019) · doi:10.1080/13510347.2019.1613980 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Self-citationHow Great is the Current Danger to Democracy? Assessing the Risk With Historical Data
Treisman, D. (2023) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/00104140231168363 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
“In a widely cited paper, Lührmann and Lindberg (2019) study the frequency of a certain type of “autocratization episode” in all states—democratic and authoritarian—and note that, although deterioration is clear, “panic is not warranted.””
BackgroundMethodSubnational competitive authoritarianism and power-sharing in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Kapidžić, D. (2019) · Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies · doi:10.1080/14683857.2020.1700880 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
“In this paper, I use the term autocratization when referring to BiH for reasons elaborated by Lührmann and Lindberg (2019).”
BackgroundMethodThe Forum: Global Challenges to Democracy? Perspectives on Democratic Backsliding
Bartels, L. M., Daxecker, U., Hyde, S., Lindberg, S. I., & Nooruddin, I. (2023) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/viad019 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Self-citationPernia, R. A. (2021) · Asian Journal of Comparative Politics · doi:10.1177/2057891121992118 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Courts and the judicial erosion of democracy in Latin America
Aguiar-Aguilar, A. A. (2023) · Politics & Policy · doi:10.1111/polp.12516 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Coup with Adjectives: Conceptual Stretching or Innovation in Comparative Research?
Marsteintredet, L., & Malamud, A. (2019) · Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0032321719888857 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
“…consensus that there is a global democratic recession and that liberal democratic values are threatened (Diamond, 2015a; Inglehart and Norris, 2016; Lührmann and Lindberg, 2019; Mechokva et al., 2017), there are fewer classical coups than ever, whether globally or in Latin America (Belkin and…”
BackgroundAhmed, A. (2023) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592722001062 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
“In fact, most studies of backsliding have measured it at either the national level or globally, with some further specifying “ episodes ” rather than discrete observations as the appropriate level of measurement (Lührmann and Lindberg 2019; Pelke and Croissant 2021).”
BackgroundLiberty, Security, and Accountability: The Rise and Fall of Illiberal Democracies
Gratton, G., & Lee, B. E. (2023) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdad030 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Domestic Interests, Democracy, and Foreign Policy Change
Leeds, B. A., & Mattes, M. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009037938 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
- Authors
- Lührmann, A., & Lindberg, S. I.
- Affiliations
- University of Gothenburg (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Lührmann, Anna
- Venue
- Democratization
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2019-03-01
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 1095-1113
- ISSN
- 1351-0347 (ISSN-L)
- 1743-890X
- OpenAlex
- W2919826889
- Cited by
- 1,528
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 273 · 2025: 290 · 2024: 229 · 2023: 206 · 2022: 179 · 2021: 187 · 2020: 133 · 2019: 31
- FWCI
- 266.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Democratization (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- European Research Council (72419)
- Vetenskapsrådet (2018-016114)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Keywords
- autocratization, democratic backsliding, liberal democracy, end of history, end of democracy
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