Risk-thresholds for the association between frequency of cannabis use and the development of psychosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Open accessAbstract
Background: Epidemiological studies show a dose–response association between cannabis use and the risk of psychosis. This review aimed to determine whether there are identifiable risk-thresholds between the frequency of cannabis use and psychosis development. Methods: Systematic search of Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Web of Science for relevant studies (1 January 2010–26 April 2021). Case–control or cohort studies that investigated the relationship between cannabis use and the risk of psychosis development that reported effect estimates [odds ratios (OR), hazard ratios (HR), risk ratios (RR)] or the raw data to calculate them, with information on the frequency of cannabis consumption were included. Effect estimates were extracted from individual studies and converted to RR. Two-stage dose–response multivariable meta-analytic models were utilized and sensitivity analyses conducted. The Newcastle Ottawa Scale was used to assess the risk of bias of included studies. Results: Ten original (three cohorts, seven case–control) studies were included, including 7390 participants with an age range of 12–65 years. Random-effect model meta-analyses showed a significant log-linear dose–response association between cannabis use frequency and psychosis development. A restricted cubic-splines model provided the best fit for the data, with the risk of psychosis significantly increasing for weekly or more frequent cannabis use [RR = 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93–1.11 yearly; RR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.97–1.25 monthly; RR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.19–1.52 weekly; RR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.47–2.12 daily] Conclusion: Individuals using cannabis frequently are at increased risk of psychosis, with no significant risk associated with less frequent use. Public health prevention messages should convey these risk-thresholds, which should be refined through further work.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This systematic review and meta-analysis found a dose–response association between cannabis use frequency and psychosis development, with risk significantly elevated only at weekly or more frequent use. The best-fitting restricted cubic-splines model showed no significant increase for yearly or monthly use, but a 35% increase for weekly use and a 76% increase for daily/near-daily use compared with never use.
Key findings
- Ten studies (three cohort, seven case–control) including 7,390 participants aged 12–65 years were meta-analyzed.
- Random-effects meta-analysis showed a significant log-linear dose–response association between cannabis use frequency and psychosis development (p < 0.0001); each category increase was associated with a 1.15-times (14.7%; 95% CI 9.8%–19.8%) increase in risk.
- The restricted cubic-splines model provided the best fit: yearly use RR = 1.01 (95% CI 0.93–1.11), monthly use RR = 1.10 (95% CI 0.97–1.25), weekly use RR = 1.35 (95% CI 1.19–1.52), and daily/near-daily use RR = 1.76 (95% CI 1.47–2.12), relative to never use.
- Heterogeneity was significant (I² = 87.2%; p < 0.001), and certainty-in-findings was rated moderate using GRADE.
Methods
- Systematic review and meta-analysis conducted per PRISMA 2020 and registered with PROSPERO (#CRD42021234708); searches covered Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Web of Science from 1 January 2010 to 26 April 2021.
- Included case–control or cohort studies investigating cannabis use and psychosis development, with effect estimates (OR, HR, RR) or raw data, and quantified frequency information allowing at least three frequency categories (monthly, weekly, daily/near-daily).
- Effect estimates were converted to RRs; two-stage dose–response multivariable meta-analytic models with random-effects modeling were used, plus sensitivity analyses using quadratic and restricted cubic-splines models; risk of bias was assessed with the Newcastle Ottawa Scale.
Limitations
- Stated: most included studies did not report potential contributor factors such as cannabis potency, and half did not control for or had unclear control of co-use of alcohol, tobacco, or other recreational substances.
- Stated: all included studies used self-report measures of cannabis use frequency, which may be prone to recall bias; categorization may lose information by treating within-category participants as equal in risk; risk-thresholds were limited to a-priori defined frequency categories; design differences limited subgroup analyses; and all studies were observational, lowering overall quality and increasing potential risk of bias versus randomized trials.
- Evident from the text: heterogeneity was high (I² = 87.2%), and funnel plot assessment showed some asymmetry, though the counter-enhanced funnel plot did not indicate missing studies in areas of low statistical significance.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
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Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 58 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
The random-effect model showed a significant log-linear dose-response association between frequency of cannabis use and risk of psychosis development (p < 0.0001).
“Random-effect model meta-analyses showed a significant log-linear dose–response association between cannabis use frequency and psychosis development.”
- Also stated in: § Random effect model · plain
“The REM showed a significant log-linear dose–response association between the frequency of cannabis use category and risk of psychosis development (p < 0.0001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Random effect model · plain
- Findingown data
In the restricted cubic-splines model, weekly cannabis use was associated with a significant increase in risk of psychosis compared with never use (RR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.19-1.52).
“RR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.19–1.52 weekly”
- Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · plain
“RR:1.35 (95% CI 1.19–1.52) for ‘weekly’”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · plain
- Findingown data
Ten original studies (three cohort and seven case-control) were included in the review.
“Ten original (three cohorts, seven case–control) studies were included”
- Also stated in: § Study selection (see Fig. 1) · plain
“A total of ten original studies (three cohort and seven case–control studies) were included in this review”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Study selection (see Fig. 1) · plain
- Findingown data
There was significant heterogeneity among studies (I2 = 87.2%; p < 0.001).
“displaying significant heterogeneity (I2 = 87.2%; p < 0.001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In the restricted cubic-splines model, yearly cannabis use was not associated with a significant increase in risk of psychosis compared with never use (RR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.93-1.11).
“RR = 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93–1.11 yearly”
- Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · plain
“the risk of psychosis increased from RR:1.01 (95% CI 0.93–1.11) for ‘yearly’”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · plain
- Findingown data
In the restricted cubic-splines model, monthly cannabis use was not associated with a significant increase in risk of psychosis compared with never use (RR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.97-1.25).
“RR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.97–1.25 monthly”
- Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · plain
“RR:1.10 (95% CI 0.97–1.25) for ‘monthly’ use”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · plain
- Findingown data
The deviation from log-linearity was statistically significant in the restricted cubic-splines model (p < 0.05, χ2 = 37.79).
“The deviation from log-linearity was statistically significant (p < 0.05, χ2 = 37.79).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The deviation from log-linearity was statistically significant in the quadratic-trend model (Wald test p < 0.05, χ2 = 42.48).
“The deviation from log-linearity was significant (Wald test p < 0.05, χ2 = 42.48).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Each category increase in cannabis consumption was associated with a 1.15-times (14.7%; 95% CI 9.8%-19.8%) increase in the risk of psychosis development.
“Each category increase in cannabis consumption was associated with a 1.15-times (14.7%; 95% CI 9.8%-19.8%) increase in the risk of psychosis development.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The counter-enhanced funnel plot did not reveal studies to be missing in areas of low statistical significance.
“The counter-enhanced funnel plot did not reveal studies to be missing in areas of low statistical significance”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In the restricted cubic-splines model, daily/near-daily cannabis use was associated with a significant increase in risk of psychosis compared with never use (RR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.47-2.12).
“RR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.47–2.12 daily”
- Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · plain
“RR:1.76 (95% CI 1.47–2.12) for ‘daily/near-daily’ use”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · plain
- Findingown data
The restricted cubic-splines model provided the best fit for the data.
“A restricted cubic-splines model provided the best fit for the data”
- Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · boosted
“The restricted cubic-splines-model demonstrated that the most conservative model had the best data-fit”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Sensitivity analysis · boosted
- Findingown data
The review's data suggest a low risk of psychosis for less frequent or occasional-only (less-than-weekly) cannabis use.
“Correspondingly, the data suggest a low risk for less frequent or occasional-only (e.g. less-than-weekly) cannabis use.”
- Also stated in: § Conclusions/future directions · plain
“while not significantly elevated with infrequent consumption”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Conclusions/future directions · plain
- Study design and conductown data
The quality of included studies was assessed as moderate (3/10) or high (7/10).
“The quality of included studies was assessed as moderate (3/10) or high (7/10; see online Supplementary material eTable 2 for RoB assessments).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
The risk of psychosis significantly increases for weekly or more frequent cannabis use.
“with the risk of psychosis significantly increasing for weekly or more frequent cannabis use”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“weekly cannabis use was associated with a 35% (RR 1.35) increase in risk, and daily/near-daily use was associated with a 76% (RR 1.76%) increase in the risk of psychosis development compared to no use”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
- Interpretationown data
There is no significant risk of psychosis associated with less than weekly cannabis use (yearly or monthly).
“with no significant risk associated with less frequent use”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
“there were no significant increases in risk associated with monthly and yearly use in this model, suggesting an absence of increased risk for lower frequency use.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
- Interpretationreasoning
The present review further compounds the evidence that specific (frequent) cannabis exposure patterns appear to significantly contribute to the multifactorial interplay toward psychosis outcomes.
“The present review further compounds the evidence that specific (frequent) cannabis exposure patterns appear to significantly contribute to the multifactorial interplay toward psychosis outcomes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The review identified discernable risk-thresholds by cannabis use at a higher frequency for psychosis development.
“Importantly, this review identified discernable risk-thresholds by cannabis use at a higher frequency for psychosis development.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductcitation
A hierarchical multi-level multivariate meta-analytical approach was used to account for statistical dependence in effect sizes from multiple within-study comparison arms to a common control group.
“A hierarchical multi-level multivariate meta-analytical approach for data plotting was used to account for statistical dependence in effect sizes from multiple within-study comparison arms (cannabis use frequencies) to a common control group (non-use)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Assink & Wibbelink, 2016 source
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- cites Gleser & Olkin, 2009
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- cites Pastor & Lazowski, 2017
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- Premisecitation
Other reviews have been limited in their level of detail about the relationship between cannabis use frequency and psychosis risk, commonly comparing frequent use to only infrequent or non-use.
“Other reviews, however, have been limited in their level of detail about the relationship between cannabis use frequency and psychosis risk where, for example, frequent use is commonly compared to only infrequent or non-use (Campeny et al., 2020; Hasan et al., 2020; Kiburi et al., 2021; Marconi et al., 2016; Polkosnik et al., 2021; van der Steur et al., 2020).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Premisecitation
The combination of daily use with high potency cannabis confers almost double the odds of developing psychosis.
“Similarly, the combination of daily use with high potency cannabis confers almost double the odds of developing psychosis (Di Forti et al., 2015).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Di Forti et al., 2015 source
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- Premisecitation
A meta-analysis focusing on adolescents showed a 2.5-fold increase in the odds of psychosis onset in frequent v. infrequent cannabis users (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.65-3.71).
“A meta-analysis focusing on adolescents (Kiburi et al., 2021) showed a 2.5-fold increase in the odds of psychosis onset in frequent v. infrequent cannabis users [odds ratio (OR) 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.65–3.71].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Kiburi et al., 2021 source
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- Premisecitation
Recently updated Lower-Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines were largely unable to list risk-thresholds for main adverse outcomes due to a lack of adequately quantified exposure data.
“Conversely, recently updated ‘Lower-Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines’ were largely unable to list risk-thresholds for main adverse outcomes due to a lack of adequately quantified exposure data (Fischer et al., 2022).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Fischer et al., 2022 source
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- Premisecitation
Early age-of-use in adolescence combined with frequent use increases the risk significantly compared to either risk factor alone.
“For example, an early age-of-use in adolescence combined with frequent use was found to increase the risk significantly as compared to either risk-factor alone, with genetic pre-dispositions as likely additional contributors (Kiburi et al., 2021).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Kiburi et al., 2021 source
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- Premisecitation
Multiple risk factors may interact to increase the risk for cannabis use-related psychosis more than the contributions of individual factors alone.
“Multiple risk-factors may interact to increase the risk for cannabis use-related psychosis more than the contributions of individual factors alone (Ben Amar & Potvin, 2007; Hosseini & Oremus, 2019).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Ben Amar & Potvin, 2007
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- cites Hosseini & Oremus, 2019
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- Premisecitation
An umbrella review (2020) involving four meta-analyses found a dose-response relationship between cannabis use and the risk of psychosis.
“An umbrella review (2020) involving four meta-analyses found a dose–response relationship between cannabis use and the risk of psychosis (Hasan et al., 2020).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Hasan et al., 2020 source
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- Premisecitation
Moderate cannabis use is associated with a two-fold increase in odds of psychosis (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.68-2.31) compared to non-use.
“and a two-fold increase (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.68–2.31) for moderate as compared to non-use (Marconi, Di Forti, Lewis, Murray, & Vassos, 2016).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Marconi, Di Forti, Lewis, Murray, & Vassos, 2016
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- Study design and conductreasoning
Differences in design and number of use frequency categories of included studies limited the ability to conduct sub-group analyses, such as by year of study or study design.
“Differences in design and number of (e.g. numbers of use frequency categories) of included studies also limited our ability to conduct sub-group analyses, such as by year of study or study design.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductcitation
Classification of risk into categories may lead to information loss by treating every within-category participant as equal for risk.
“While including only studies with multiple use frequency categories, classification of risk into categories may lead to information loss by treating every within-category participant as equal for risk (Wynants et al., 2019).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Wynants et al., 2019 source
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- Interpretationcitation
The risk of psychosis associated with more frequent cannabis use is likely further influenced by other risk factors (e.g., genetics, family history, cannabis potency) beyond frequency of use.
“While more frequent cannabis use to be appears associated with an elevated risk of psychosis, this risk is likely further influenced by other risk-factors (e.g. genetics, family history, cannabis potency) that require additional consideration for and incorporation into prevention messaging beyond mere frequency-of-use factors”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Study design and conductnone given
Half of the included studies either did not control for possible co-use of alcohol, tobacco, or other recreational substances in their analysis or it was unclear whether these factors were controlled for.
“Additionally, half of the included studies either did not control for the possible co-use of alcohol, tobacco, or other recreational substances in their analysis or it was unclear whether these factors were controlled for.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
Included studies were rated as having a low risk of bias according to the Newcastle Ottawa Scale.
“While included studies were rated as having a low RoB according to the Newcastle Ottawa Scale”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
Many included studies do not report information on the potency of cannabis used by participants.
“yet many studies do not report information on the potency of cannabis used by participants”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- May combine two claims. 15
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 28
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThere was some funnel plot asymmetry when assessing publication bias, but the majority of estimates were clustered around the summary-effect-estimate.
“There was some funnel plot asymmetry when assessing publication bias, but the majority of estimates were clustered around the summary-effect-estimate.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe included studies comprised 7390 participants with an age range of 12-65 years.
“including 7390 participants with an age range of 12–65 years”
- Also stated in: § Study characteristics (see Table 1) · plain
“Studies included a total of 7390 participants ranging in age from 12 to 65 years.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Also stated in: § Study characteristics (see Table 1) · plain
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataA large proportion of the variance was explained by within-study differences (86.67%), with between-study variance contributing 0.56% of heterogeneity.
“A large proportion of the variance was explained by within-study-differences (86.67%), with between-study variance contributing to 0.56% of heterogeneity”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe review's findings indicate that the risk of psychosis is significantly elevated for frequent cannabis use, defined as at least weekly, and is significantly clearest for weekly or higher patterns of use.
“our findings suggest that such a risk is significantly clearest for more frequent – i.e., ‘weekly’ or higher – patterns of cannabis use”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
“While more frequent cannabis use to be appears associated with an elevated risk of psychosis”
- Also stated in: § Conclusions/future directions · plain
“This review found that the risk of psychosis is significantly elevated with frequent, i.e., at least weekly, cannabis use”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
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Study design and conductreasoningCertainty-in-findings was rated as moderate according to GRADE, largely due to the observational nature of study designs and heterogeneity.
“Certainty-in-findings was rated as moderate according (GRADE), largely due to the observational nature of study designs and heterogeneity”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationRecent reviews have confirmed a moderately significant association between cannabis use and psychosis.
“Recent reviews have confirmed a moderately significant association between cannabis use and psychosis (Kiburi, Molebatsi, Ntlantsana, & Lynskey, 2021; Polkosnik, Sorkhou, & George, 2021; van der Steur, Batalla, & Bossong, 2020).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Kiburi, Molebatsi, Ntlantsana, & Lynskey, 2021
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- cites Polkosnik, Sorkhou, & George, 2021
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- cites van der Steur, Batalla, & Bossong, 2020
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Interpretationown dataIndividuals using cannabis frequently are at increased risk of psychosis, with no significant risk associated with less frequent use.
“Individuals using cannabis frequently are at increased risk of psychosis, with no significant risk associated with less frequent use.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataInter-rater reliability was 96% agreement (κ = 0.60) for title and abstract screening and 92% agreement (κ = 0.62) for full-text screening.
“Inter-rater reliability was 96% agreement (κ = 0.60) for title and abstract screening and 92% agreement (κ = 0.62) for full-text screening, respectively, indicating substantial agreement.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationFrequent cannabis use functions as a strong predictor of psychosis and other adverse outcomes.
“Frequent cannabis use, specifically, has been shown to function as a strong predictor of psychosis and other adverse outcomes (e.g. cognitive functioning, psychosocial outcomes and CUD) (Fischer et al., 2022; Kroon, Kuhns, Hoch, & Cousijn, 2020; Leung et al., 2020; Lorenzetti, Chye, Silva, Solowij, & Roberts, 2019).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Fischer et al., 2022
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- cites Kroon, Kuhns, Hoch, & Cousijn, 2020
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- cites Leung et al., 2020
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PremisecitationCurrent evidence suggests that the legalization of non-medical cannabis use may lead to an increased incidence of psychosis.
“Current evidence however, suggests that the legalization of non-medical cannabis use may lead to an increased incidence of psychosis (Hamilton & Monaghan, 2019; Ksir & Hart, 2016; Murray & Hall, 2020).”
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- cites Ksir & Hart, 2016
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PremisecitationMost frequent cannabis use is associated with a four-fold increase in odds of psychosis (OR 3.90, 95% CI 2.84-5.34) compared to non-use.
“Another meta-analysis showed a four-fold increase in odds of psychosis (OR 3.90, 95%CI 2.84–5.34) for the most frequent cannabis use”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Marconi, Di Forti, Lewis, Murray, & Vassos, 2016
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Study design and conductcitationSensitivity analyses were performed using both quadratic and flexible non-linear models with restricted cubic splines with three knots.
“Sensitivity analyses were performed using both quadratic and flexible non-linear models with restricted cubic splines with three knots (10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles) of the distribution”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Liu, Cook, Bergström, & Hsieh, 2009
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- cites Orsini, Bellocco, & Greenland, 2006
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Study design and conductnone givenThe study protocol was registered pre-initiation with PROSPERO (#CRD42021234708).
“The study protocol was registered pre-initiation with the International Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO)(#CRD42021234708).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationGoodness-of-fit statistics (AIC, deviance test D, and R2) were assessed to select the best-fitting model.
“Goodness-of-fit statistics (Akaike information criteria ‘AIC’, deviance test ‘D’, and the coefficient of determination ‘R2’) were assessed to select the best-fitting model”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Discacciati, Crippa, & Orsini, 2017
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PremisecitationThe role of cannabis use in the incidence of psychotic outcomes as a causal contributor is complex, because their causes are multifactorial, influenced by the environment, genes and their interactions.
“The role of cannabis use in the incidence of psychotic outcomes as a causal contributor is complex, because their causes are known to be multifactorial, being influenced by the environment, genes and their interactions (Ben Amar & Potvin, 2007; Hall & Degenhardt, 2008; Hamilton, 2017; Wright et al., 2020).”
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Study design and conductcitationThe Newcastle Ottawa Scale was used to assess the risk of bias of included studies.
“The RoB of included studies was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale versions for both cohort and case–control studies”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Wells et al., 2013
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PremisecitationA two-fold increase in odds of psychosis (AOR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.54-2.84) was found in a comparison of frequent to no cannabis use.
“Elsewhere, a two-fold increase (AOR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.54–2.84) in the odds of psychosis had been found in a comparison of frequent to no cannabis use (Moore et al., 2007).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Moore et al., 2007 source
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Study design and conductnone givenStudy data were extracted by two independent reviewers, using consensus discussions for disagreements, and final data verifications conducted by the study statistician.
“Study data were extracted by two independent reviewers, using consensus discussions for disagreements, and final data verifications conducted by the study statistician.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationBeyond use frequency, epidemiological data have identified high potency cannabis, early age-of-use onset (e.g. pre-25), childhood trauma, and concurrent other substance use as contributing factors to psychosis development.
“Beyond the role of use frequency, epidemiological data have identified the use of high potency cannabis, early age-of-use onset (e.g. pre-25), childhood trauma, and concurrent other substance use as contributing factors to psychosis development (Di Forti et al., 2015; Hall & Lynskey, 2020; Kiburi et al., 2021; van der Steur et al., 2020).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Di Forti et al., 2015 source
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- cites Hall & Lynskey, 2020
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- cites Kiburi et al., 2021
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Study design and conductnone givenCitations were screened initially by title and abstract in duplicate by two independent reviewers, with full-text screening completed in the same manner.
“Citations were screened initially by title and abstract in duplicate by two independent reviewers, with full-text screening completed in the same manner.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationCertainty-in-findings for the primary review outcome was assessed using GRADE.
“Certainty-in-findings for the primary review outcome was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Schunemann, Brozek, Guyatt, & Oxam, 2013
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PremisecitationSystematic reviews have quantified exposure levels of alcohol use that represent risk-thresholds for stroke, cardio-vascular disease and atrial fibrillation.
“For example, systematic reviews have quantified exposure levels of alcohol use (e.g. by standard drinks/week) that represent risk-thresholds for stroke, cardio-vascular disease and atrial fibrillation (Samokhvalov, Irving, & Rehm, 2010; Tu et al., 2021; Wood et al., 2018)”
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PremisecitationRecent research has confirmed the importance of genetic influences, specifically polymorphisms on specific genes (e.g. COMT, AKT1) that make affected individuals more vulnerable to the psychogenetic effects of cannabis.
“Recent research has confirmed the importance of genetic influences, specifically polymorphisms on specific genes (e.g. COMT, AKT1) that make affected individuals more vulnerable to the psychogenetic effects of cannabis (Misiak et al., 2018; Polkosnik et al., 2021; van der Steur et al., 2020).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Misiak et al., 2018
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- cites Polkosnik et al., 2021
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- cites van der Steur et al., 2020
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Study design and conductcitationThe systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted in accordance with PRISMA 2020.
“This systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 framework”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Page et al., 2021
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Study design and conductnone givenRisk of bias assessments were completed in duplicate by two independent reviewers and disagreements resolved through consensus.
“RoB assessments were completed in duplicate by two independent reviewers and disagreements resolved through consensus discussions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningIf risk-thresholds for cannabis use frequency and psychosis can be identified, these may inform prevention/educational messages toward reducing cannabis-related harm among users.
“If risk-thresholds for cannabis use frequency and psychosis can be identified, these may inform prevention/educational messages toward reducing cannabis-related harm among users.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningAll included studies are observational designs, and therefore overall study quality is lower and potential risk of bias higher than if randomized trials were utilized.
“While included studies were rated as having a low RoB according to the Newcastle Ottawa Scale, it is important to note that all included studies are observational designs and therefore overall study quality is lower and the potential RoB higher than if randomized trials were utilized.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenAll studies assessed were included in this review, regardless of their methodological quality.
“All studies assessed were included in this review, regardless of their methodological quality.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataMost included studies did not report data on potential contributor factors for outcomes, so these factors could not be controlled for.
“First, most of the included studies did not report data on potential contributor factors for outcomes, which therefore could not be controlled for.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationExisting prevention content commonly conveys categorical warnings regarding the link between cannabis use and risk for psychosis.
“While existing prevention content commonly convey categorical warnings regarding the link between cannabis use and risk for psychosis”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Ghonaim, 2018
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Ladegard, Thurstone, & Rylander, 2020
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Murray, David, & Ajnakina, 2021
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationCase-control studies with less than ten matched-pairs were excluded due to the increased risk of bias.
“Case–control studies with less than ten matched-pairs were excluded due to the increased risk of bias (RoB) encountered in studies with sample sizes below this threshold”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Dekkers et al., 2019 source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationPublication bias was assessed by funnel plots, whereby regression/mixed-effects models and variance/standard errors assessed funnel plot asymmetry.
“Publication bias was assessed by funnel plots, whereby regression/mixed-effects models and variance/standard errors assessed funnel plot asymmetry”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Sterne & Egger, 2005 source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningThe review's results translate into a refinement of prevention/education messages, such as those offered by the LRCUG or other pertinent recommendation sources.
“These results translate into the consequential refinement of prevention/education messages, for example as offered by the LRCUG (Fischer et al., 2022) or other pertinent recommendation sources.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Fischer et al., 2022
Not checked in the free run.
- Rests on an assumption: The association between frequent cannabis use and psychosis is causal, such that reducing cannabis use frequency would meaningfully lower the risk of cannabis-attributable psychosis.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationExposure-stepped, evidence-based prevention messaging about risk-thresholds for cannabis use and psychosis is analogous to evidence-based alcohol-related health guidelines where risk for specific adverse outcomes is low or absent below certain consumption levels and moderate use is recommended.
“However, it is analogous to evidence-based alcohol-related health guidelines where the risk for specific adverse (e.g. cardio-vascular) outcomes is low/absent below certain consumption levels and ‘moderate’ use is recommended”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Furtwaengler & de Visser, 2013
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Holmes et al., 2019
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Wood et al., 2018 source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenAll included studies utilized self-report measures of cannabis use frequency, which may be prone to recall bias.
“All included studies utilized self-report measures of cannabis use frequency, which may be prone to recall bias.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe use of high-potency cannabis increases the risk of a psychotic disorder.
“the use of high-potency cannabis also increases the risk of a psychotic disorder (van der Steur et al., 2020)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites van der Steur et al., 2020
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe identification of risk-thresholds was limited to the a-priori defined frequency categories.
“The identification of risk-thresholds was limited to the a-priori defined frequency categories.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationStatistical heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic.
“Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic, with thresholds assessed according to standard recommendations”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Deeks, Higgins, & Altman, 2019 source
Not checked in the free run.
The paper relies on this without support.
The association between frequent cannabis use and psychosis is causal, such that reducing cannabis use frequency would meaningfully lower the risk of cannabis-attributable psychosis.
“Cannabis users, however, should be explicitly advised by evidence-based prevention messaging to keep their cannabis use infrequent in order for their risks for cannabis-attributable psychosis development to be meaningfully lowered.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
A 2022 meta-analysis found an association of weekly cannabis use (vs. no use) with a 35% increase in risk of developing psychosis.
“A 2022 meta- analysis found an association of weekly cannabis use (vs. no use) with a 35% increase in risk of developing psychosis”
From Substance use disorders: a comprehensive update of classification, epidemiology, neurobiology, clinical aspects, treatment and prevention (2023) · cites this paper as [103]
There was no significant increase in psychosis risk among individuals with monthly and yearly cannabis use.
“By contrast, there was no signifi cant increase in risk among individuals with monthly and yearly use 103 .”
From Substance use disorders: a comprehensive update of classification, epidemiology, neurobiology, clinical aspects, treatment and prevention (2023) · cites this paper as [103]
The same meta-analysis found an association of daily or near-daily cannabis use with a 76% increase in risk of developing psychosis.
“it also found an association of daily or near- daily use with a 76% increase in that risk.”
From Substance use disorders: a comprehensive update of classification, epidemiology, neurobiology, clinical aspects, treatment and prevention (2023) · cites this paper as [103]
Epigenetic modifications are believed to drive and sustain the long-lasting changes associated with addiction.
“Epigenetic modifications are believed to drive and sustain the long- lasting changes associated with addiction 103 .”
From Substance use disorders: a comprehensive update of classification, epidemiology, neurobiology, clinical aspects, treatment and prevention (2023) · cites this paper as [103]
The Discussion addresses genetic influences on cannabis-related psychosis, and the Conclusions/future directions addresses frequency of cannabis use and psychosis risk. Neither passage addresses epigenetic modifications driving or sustaining long-lasting changes associated with addiction. Searches for the claim’s distinctive wording and for epigenetics and addiction found no passage supporting it; page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Yearly-use risk ratio conflicts with Table 2
MinorThe results text reports RR 1.25 for yearly use, but Table 2 reports 1.15. The stated confidence interval of 1.10-1.20 also excludes 1.25.
“from RR:1.25 (95% CI 1.10–1.20) for yearly use”
“1–11 days a year (Yearly) | 1.15 (1.10–1.20)”
Discussion attaches a percent sign to the daily-use risk ratio
MinorThe discussion writes the risk ratio as 1.76%, while the abstract reports it as the dimensionless value 1.76.
“daily/near-daily use was associated with a 76% (RR 1.76%) increase in the risk of psychosis development”
“RR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.47–2.12 daily”
Daily-use linear-model risk ratio differs from Table 2
MinorThe results text reports RR 1.71 for daily/near-daily use, whereas Table 2 reports 1.73 for the same model and category.
“RR:1.71 (95% CI 1.45–2.06) for daily/near-daily use”
“5–7 days a week (Daily) | 1.73 (1.45–2.06)”
Quadratic-model daily-use confidence interval differs from Table 2
MinorThe sensitivity-analysis text gives a lower confidence limit of 1.29 for daily/near-daily use; Table 2 gives 1.49.
“RR:1.76 (95%CI 1.29–2.13) for ‘daily/near-daily’ use”
“5–7 days a week (Daily) | 1.73 (1.45–2.06) | 1.76 (1.49–2.13)”
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- Authors
- Robinson, T., Ali, M. U., Easterbrook, B., Hall, W., Jutras-Aswad, D., & Fischer, B.
- Affiliations
- Simon Fraser University (CA)
- McMaster University (CA)
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- University of Auckland (NZ)
- Corresponding author
- Fischer, Benedikt
- ORCID
- Venue
- Psychological Medicine
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2022-03-24
- Volume
- 53
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 3858-3868
- ISSN
- 0033-2917 (ISSN-L)
- 1469-8978
- PMC
- PMC10317818
- OpenAlex
- W4220795102
- Semantic Scholar
- 99680a9ac4522f0befaa4d95069c6efd488e4309
- Cited by
- 68
- References
- 78
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 7
- FWCI
- 1.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Psychological Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Health Canada
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology › Cannabis and Cannabinoid Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Life Sciences › Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics › Toxicology › Forensic Toxicology and Drug Analysis
- Keywords
- cannabis use, psychosis, psychosis risk, dose-response relationship, cannabis use frequency, risk thresholds, daily cannabis use, cannabis-related psychosis
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Cannabis, Child, Humans, Middle Aged, Psychotic Disorders, Cohort Studies, Case-Control Studies, Young Adult
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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