Where did all the growth go? external shocks, social conflict, and growth collapses
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This article argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse since the mid-1970s. It emphasizes, in particular, the manner in which social conflicts interact with external shock on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of conflict-management on the other. Econometric evidence provides support for this hypothesis. Countries that experienced the sharpest drops in growth after 1975 were those with divided societies (as measured by indicators of inequality, ethnic fragmentation, and the like) and with weak institutions of conflict management (proxied by indicators of the quality of governmental institutions, rule of law, democratic rights, and social safety nets).
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- Authors
- Rodrik, D.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Rodrik, Dani
- ORCID
- Rodrik, Dani
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Growth
- Published
- 1999-12
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 385-412
- ISSN
- 1381-4338 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-7020
- OpenAlex
- W1519324514
- Cited by
- 1,869
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 39 · 2025: 82 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 75 · 2022: 57 · 2021: 58 · 2020: 79 · 2019: 53 · 2018: 62 · 2017: 55 · 2016: 83 · 2015: 63 · 2014: 83 · 2013: 81 · 2012: 86
- FWCI
- 91.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Economic Growth (publishedVersion)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- OpenGrey (Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Harvard University
- University of Toronto
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Demography › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Keywords
- social conflict, external shocks, social fragmentation, inequality, ethnic fragmentation, rule of law, social safety nets, democratic rights, institutional quality
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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