Crustal shortening in the Andes: Why do GPS rates differ from geological rates?
Open accessAbstract
GPS data indicate 30–40 mm yr−1 present‐day crustal shortening across the Andes, whereas geological evidence shows crustal shortening concentrated in the sub‐Andean thrust belt at a much lower rate (<15 mm yr−1). We reconcile the discrepancy between the geodetic and the geological crustal shortening using geodynamic modeling that includes timescale‐dependent crustal deformation. The GPS velocities reflect the instantaneous deformation in the Andes that includes both permanent deformation and elastic deformation that will be recovered during future earthquakes, whereas the lower geological rates reflect only the permanent deformation. The three‐dimensional viscoelastic model predicts nearly uniform short‐term velocity gradients across the Andes, similar to the GPS results, and concentrated long‐term crustal shortening in the sub‐Andean thrust zone, consistent with geological observations.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
GPS data indicate 30–40 mm/yr present-day crustal shortening across the Andes, whereas geological evidence shows much lower rates (<15 mm/yr) concentrated in the sub-Andean thrust belt. The authors use viscoelastic/plastic and 3D finite-element models to argue that GPS captures recoverable elastic strain, while geological rates record only permanent shortening.
Key findings
- GPS-derived shortening across the Andes is 30–40 mm/yr, but geological shortening is <15 mm/yr and concentrated in the sub-Andean thrust belt; seismic-moment estimates give only 1–3 mm/yr, described as a minimum.
- The discrepancy is reconciled by timescale-dependent crustal deformation: short-term GPS velocities include permanent deformation plus elastic deformation that will be recovered in future earthquakes, whereas geological rates reflect only permanent deformation.
- A simple plastic-viscoelastic model shows displacement accumulating at the instantaneous rate except during earthquake slip, with long-term shortening given by the envelope of the sawtooth displacement curve; averaged long-term deformation behaves essentially as a viscous fluid.
- A 3D model predicts nearly uniform short-term velocity gradients across the Andes, similar to GPS results, and concentrated long-term shortening in the sub-Andean thrust zone, consistent with geological observations.
Methods
- A simple plastic-viscoelastic analog model containing a dashpot, a spring, and frictional plates represents a crust that is elastic over short periods, viscous over long geological timescales, and plastic during fault sliding; it is compressed at a constant rate of 30–40 mm/yr at the leading edge of South America.
- A three-dimensional finite element model incorporates digital topography, Andean model geometry, and boundary conditions, with lateral velocity boundary conditions consistent with GPS measurements; tectonic compression is largely balanced by gravitational buoyancy from isostatically supported elevation.
- Model predictions are compared with GPS velocity fields and geological observations of crustal shortening.
Limitations
- The paper states that present GPS uncertainties are large enough to allow alternative nonuniform interpretations of the velocity field, and that a longer measurement interval would reduce uncertainties sufficiently to resolve this issue.
- The paper states that the seismic shortening estimate of 1–3 mm/yr is a minimum because aseismic deformation is not included and the sampling period may have missed infrequent very large earthquakes.
- The text describes the plastic-viscoelastic analog model as a first-order approximation of the mechanical behavior of the Andean crust.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
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Cites
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 11 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
The three-dimensional viscoelastic model predicts nearly uniform short-term velocity gradients across the Andes, similar to the GPS results.
“The three-dimensional viscoelastic model predicts nearly uniform short-term velocity gradients across the Andes, similar to the GPS results”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
The averaged long-term shortening rate at the compressional edge of the plastic-viscoelastic system, Vc, is given by V0 minus the average slip rate.
“The averaged long-term shortening rate at the compressional edge of the system, V c, is given by V ø minus the average slip rate, as shown by the envelope of the displacement sawtooth-curve (Fig. 2c).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Geological evidence shows crustal shortening concentrated in the sub-Andean thrust belt at a much lower rate (<15 mm/yr).
“geological evidence shows crustal shortening concentrated in the sub-Andean thrust belt at a much lower rate (<15 mm yr-l).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Sheffels, 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Schmitz, 1994 source
- Premisecitation
The uncertainties of present GPS data are large enough to allow alternative nonuniform interpretations of the velocity field.
“The uncertainties of present GPS data are large enough to allow alternative (nonuniform) interpretations of the velocity field [Leffier et al., 1997;Norabuena et al., 1998].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Leffier et al., 1997
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Norabuena et al., 1998 source
- Interpretationreasoning
The timescale-dependent mechanical behavior of continental crust may explain discrepancies between GPS and geological rates at different tectonic settings.
“The timescale-dependent mechanical behavior of continental crust may explain discrepancies between GPS and geological rates at different tectonic settings.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Interpretationcitation
GPS rates measured within an earthquake cycle could be lower than geological rates averaged over a longer time interval.
“Thus GPS rates measured within an earthquake cycle could be lower than geological rates averaged over a longer time interval [Larson et al., 1999].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Larson et al., 1999 source
- Interpretationreasoning
The discrepancy between geodetic and geological rates and spatial distributions of crustal shortening can be reconciled by timescale-dependent behavior of the lithosphere, which behaves as an elastic body over a short period but as viscous flow over the geological timescale of millions of years.
“The discrepancy between the geodetic and geological rates and spatial distributions of crustal shortening can be reconciled by the timescaledependent behavior of the lithosphere, which behaves as an elastic body over a short period but as viscous flow over the geological timescale of millions of years.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
GPS data indicate 30-40 mm/yr present-day crustal shortening across the Andes.
“GPS data indicate 30-40 mm yr -I present-day crustal shortening across the Andes”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Leffier et al., 1997
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Norabuena et al., 1998 source
- Interpretationreasoning
The relationship between short-term and long-term deformation explains why GPS-measured crustal shortening rates are higher than geologically derived shortening rates.
“This relationship explains why the GPS-measured crustal shortening rates are higher than the geologicallyderived shortening rates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The averaged long-term deformation of the plastic-viscoelastic system is essentially that of a viscous fluid.
“In other words, the averaged longterm deformation of this plastic-viscoelastic system is essentially that of a viscous fluid.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Modern seismicity shows active crustal shortening concentrated within the sub-Andean fold and thrust belt.
“Modern seismicity also shows active crustal shortening concentrated within the sub-Andean FTB.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Suarez et al., 1983 source
- May combine two claims. 5
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe three-dimensional viscoelastic model predicts concentrated long-term crustal shortening in the sub-Andean thrust zone, consistent with geological observations.
“concentrated long-term crustal shortening in the sub-Andean thrust zone, consistent with geological observations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
FindingreasoningThe long-term shortening rate Vc can be simplified as Vc = Wσy/η.
“The long-term shortening rate V c can be simplified as V c = Wcry / •1.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe significant discrepancies between GPS and geological rates and distribution of crustal shortening in the Andes would remain and be consistent with the general model proposed here.
“Nonetheless, the significant discrepancies between GPS and geological rates and distribution of crustal shortening in the Andes would remain and be consistent with the general model proposed here.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningGPS velocities reflect instantaneous deformation in the Andes that includes both permanent deformation and elastic deformation that will be recovered during future earthquakes, whereas the lower geological rates reflect only permanent deformation.
“The GPS velocities reflect the instantaneous deformation in the Andes that includes both permanent deformation and elastic deformation that will be recovered during future earthquakes, whereas the lower geological rates reflect only the permanent deformation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe major driving force is tectonic compression associated with continued plate convergence, largely balanced by gravitational buoyancy force arising from the isostatically supported elevation of the mountain ranges.
“The major driving force is tectonic compression associated with the continued plate convergence, which is largely balanced by the gravitational buoyancy force arising from the isostatically supported elevation of the mountain ranges [Dalmayrac and Molnar, 1981; Molnar and Lyon-Caen, 1988].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe shortening rate estimated from seismic moments of earthquakes is only 1-3 mm/yr, which is a minimum because aseismic deformation is not included and the sampling period may have missed infrequent very large earthquakes.
“The shortening rate estimated from the seismic moments of earthquakes is only 1-3 mm yr '• [Suarez et al., 1983], which is a minimum because aseismic deformation is not included in the calculations and the sampling period may have missed infrequent very large earthquakes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Suarez et al., 1983 source
The authors state this as an assumption.
The plastic-viscoelastic system of a dashpot, a spring, and frictional plates provides a first-order approximation of the mechanical behavior of the Andean crust: mainly elastic over short periods, viscous over long geological timescales, and plastic when tectonic stresses exceed the yield strength of the crust.
“This system provides a first-order approximation of the mechanical behavior of the Andean crust: mainly elastic over short periods, viscous over long geological time scales, and plastic (sliding along faults) when tectonic stresses exceed the yield strength of the crust.”
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“while the geological shortening rates record only permanent deformation (Liu et al., 2000; Shi et al., 2020).”
BackgroundSeismic Risk on the Northern Xiaojiang Fault Implied by the Latest and Nearest GPS Observations
Fu, Z., Xu, L., & Wang, Y. (2019) · Pure and Applied Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s00024-019-02347-5 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Displacements, Strains and Rotations in the Central Andean Plate Boundary Zone
Hindle, D., & Kley, J. (2011) · Geodynamics series/Geodynamic series · doi:10.1029/gd030p0135 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Liu, M., Yang, Y., Li, Q., & Zhang, H. (2007) · Physics of The Earth and Planetary Interiors · doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2007.06.008 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“Thus, different rheology and plate coupling are needed to reproduce deformation at different timescales, because continental deformation is timescale dependent, and so is lithospheric rheology (Liu et al., 2000).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citation3-D Viscoelastic FEM Modeling of Crustal Deformation in Northeast Japan
Suito, H., Iizuka, M., & Hirahara, K. (2002) · Birkhäuser Basel eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-0348-8197-5_5 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Current crustal deformation in the northern Tien Shan: GPS and seismological data
Тычков, С. А., Кучай, О. А., Bushenkova, N., et al. (2008) · Russian Geology and Geophysics · doi:10.1016/j.rgg.2007.05.006 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
No flat Wadati–Benioff Zone in the central and southern central Andes
Muñoz, M. (2004) · Tectonophysics · doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2004.09.002 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
What drives short‐ and long‐term crustal deformation in the southwestern United States?
Yang, Y., & Liu, M. (2010) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl041598 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“It is well understood that the GPS‐measured strain include transient components that will be restored in future earthquakes and fault slips; such strain does not contribute to permanent deformation [Liu et al., 2000; Norabuena et al., 1998; Pollitz, 2003].”
BackgroundSelf-citationWang, H., Cao, J., Zhang, H., et al. (2007) · Acta Seismologica Sinica · doi:10.1007/s11589-007-0617-7 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
The 01/26/2001 Bhuj, India, Earthquake: Intraplate or Interplate?
Li, Q., Liu, M., & Yang, Y. (2011) · Geodynamics series/Geodynamic series · doi:10.1029/gd030p0255 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“In this model no topographic loading is assumed because of the low relief of the Indian plate, and lithostatic body force is removed when calculating the deviatoric stresses [Liu et al., 2000a].”
BackgroundSelf-citationLin, Y.-S., Chuang, Y.-R., Shyu, J. B. H., González, G., Shen, C., Lo, C., & Liou, Y.-H. (2016) · Tectonophysics · doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2016.07.015 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Comparison of GPS, Seismological, and Geological Observations of Andean Mountain Building
Klosko, E. R., Stein, S. A., Hindle, D., Kley, J., Norabuena, E. O., Dixon, T. H., & Liu, M. (2011) · Geodynamics series/Geodynamic series · doi:10.1029/gd030p0123 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationActive tectonics in Taiwan: insights from a 3-D viscous finite element model
Sun, Y., Liu, M., Dong, S., et al. (2015) · 地震学报：英文版 · doi:10.1007/s11589-015-0137-9 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“Even though the plate velocities may alter over long geological time (Liu et al. 2000), the relative plate moving direction could be presumably stable in the past few million years (Demets et al.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationRibeiro, A. M. O., Mendes-Victor, L. A., Matias, L. M., et al. (2009) · Geotechnical, geological and earthquake engineering · doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-8609-0_26 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“The elastic component reaction to stress accumulation can be measured by GPS, which estimates the instantaneous velocity of the system; the shortening component at geologic long term is estimated by tectonic methods and expresses the inelastic-viscoelastic component of the convergent zone by aseismic and seismic displ…”
Mouslopoulou, V., Hristopulos, D. T., Nicol, A. J., et al. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth · doi:10.1002/jgrb.50062 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“…that there are cases in which geodetic and geological or seismic measurements are similar [e.g., Hindle et al., 2002; McCaffrey, 2005;Nicol andWallace, 2007], whereas in others, significant discrepancies are observed [e.g., Donnellan et al., 1993; Liu et al., 2000; Papanikolaou et al., 2005].”
BackgroundBahuguna, A., & Shanker, D. (2021) · Pure and Applied Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s00024-021-02906-9 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“Some authors have also considered the material non-linearity (e.g., Liu & Rice, 2005; Liu et al., 2000; Salomon, 2018; Wang et al., 2001; Zhao et al., 2004) by incorporating the viscoelastic prop- erties of the plate, while other researchers have developed a physics-based simulation…”
BackgroundThe Andes as a peripheral orogen of the breaking-up Pangea
Ломизе, М. Г. (2008) · Geotectonics · doi:10.1134/s0016852108030047 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“Absolute velocities V u and V o correspond to the movements of the under- and overthrusting plates, after [30, 68]; Rr is the rate of rollback of the hinge line of oceanic plate, which differs from Vo by the rate of deformational shortening of the continental margin, Rd, given after [ 46 ].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialThe Evolution of Stress and Strain around the Bayan Har Block in the Tibetan Plateau
Sun, Y., Fan, T., Chunjing, Z., et al. (2015) · Journal of Earthquakes · doi:10.1155/2015/971628 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
POSSIBLE FACTORS AFFECTING THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE BACKBONE RANGE OF TAIWAN
Yui, T.-F., & Chu, H. (2015) · Cited by 3 · see citing works
López, C., Ventisette, C. D., Bonini, M., Montanari, D., Maestrelli, D., Martínez, F., Rioseco, M.-P., Cisternas, R., Espinoza, S., Herrera, B., et al. (2025) · Tectonics · doi:10.1029/2024tc008799 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“Considering a shortening velocity in the model (Vm) ranging between 12 and 25 mm/hr (Table 1), we obtain a scaled natural velocity Vn ( = Vm/V*) ranging between ∼ 1 and ∼ 22 cm/yr, which is comparable to the values reported in the literature for the Andes (e.g., Liu et al., 2000).”
Thermal controls on flexure of underthrust continental lithosphere
Brown, C. D. (2001) · Geophysical Journal International · doi:10.1046/j.0956-540x.2001.01503.x · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Physical Influences of GPS Surveying
Xu, G., & Xu, Y. L. (2016) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-50367-6_5 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Liu, M., Yang, Y., Li, Q., et al. (2011) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511976308.007
Self-citationYang, Y. (2016) · doi:10.32469/10355/62483
Self-citation刘, 杰., 刘, 勉., 石, 耀., et al. (2010) · SCIENTIA SINICA Terrae · doi:10.1360/zd2010-40-4-458
Wang, C., Li, X., & Guo, J. (2025) · International Geology Review · doi:10.1080/00206814.2025.2572986
“The model employs a Maxwell viscoelastic material that behaves like a fluid over time, reflecting the litho-sphere’s long-term deformation at high temperatures and pressures (Liu et al .”
- Authors
- Liu, M., Yang, Y., Stein, S., Zhu, Y., & Engeln, J.
- Affiliations
- University of Missouri (US)
- Northwestern University (US)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2000-09-15
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 18
- Pages
- 3005-3008
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2041529393
- Semantic Scholar
- a94ad4475ed637cac0682741a767ac43503f190a
- Cited by
- 69
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2025: 2 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 1 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 3.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (9805127)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NAG59145)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geophysics › Geological and Tectonic Studies in Latin America
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geophysics › earthquake and tectonic studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geophysics › Geological and Geophysical Studies Worldwide
- Keywords
- crustal shortening, Andes, GPS velocities, viscoelastic deformation, permanent deformation, elastic deformation, geodynamic modeling, velocity gradient, plate boundary deformation
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