Cited by 28earthquake and tectonic studiesGeological and Tectonic Studies in Latin AmericaGeological and Geophysical Studies Worldwide

Constraints on present‐day shortening rate across the central eastern Andes from GPS data

Open access
Leffler, Lisa, Stein, Seth, Mao, Ailin, Dixon, Timothy, Ellis, Michael A., Ocola, Leonidas, Sacks, I. Selwyn·1997·Geophysical Research Letters

Abstract

Two years of continuous GPS data from several sites in South America indicate that Arequipa in the southern Peruvian Andes has a velocity of 13±3 mm/yr (two standard errors) to the northeast with respect to stable South America. We interpret these data as reflecting a combination of elastic strain accumulation associated with a locked Nazca‐South America subduction zone and a small amount of crustal shortening across the fold and thrust belt on the eastern margin of the Andes. Models of elastic strain accumulation for fully locked and partly locked subduction zones constrain shortening in the eastern Andes to 0–3 mm/yr (fully locked) and 0–12 mm/yr (partly locked), slower than some geologic estimates averaged over millions of years.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Two years of continuous GPS data show Arequipa, Peru, moving 13±3 mm/yr northeast relative to stable South America. Elastic models of the locked Nazca–South America subduction zone allow only 0–3 mm/yr of present-day shortening across the eastern Andes if fully locked, or up to 12 mm/yr if partly decoupled, slower than some long-term geologic estimates.

Key findings

  • Arequipa’s GPS velocity relative to stable South America is 13±3 mm/yr toward 72±6°E (Table 2; abstract reports two standard errors, tables report 95% confidence).
  • For a fully locked subduction zone, models with 0–3 mm/yr shortening in the eastern Andes agree with the GPS data at 95% confidence; models with >6 mm/yr shortening disagree, and 27 mm/yr is excluded at 99% confidence.
  • For a partly locked/50% aseismic subduction zone, shortening up to 12 mm/yr is allowed, but 27 mm/yr is still excluded at 99% confidence; even with complete decoupling, the maximum shortening rate is Arequipa’s velocity, 13±3 mm/yr.
  • The authors conclude modern shortening is slower than geologic estimates of 8–27 mm/yr averaged over 5–25 Ma; if the fully locked interpretation is correct, there is no earthquake deficit or significant aseismic deformation in the region.

Methods

  • GPS: five permanent sites—Arequipa (Peru) plus Fortaleza, Brasilia, Kourou, and La Plata in stable South America—analyzed daily at the University of Miami Geodesy Lab using GIPSY, non-fiducial satellite orbits, and ITRF94; velocities from least-squares fits to daily positions, mostly from mid-1994 onward, with Brasilia and La Plata operational in 1995.
  • SLR comparison: updated Robaudo and Harrison’s SLR analysis with NUVEL-1A, obtaining an Arequipa velocity of 20±6 mm/yr toward 80°E, similar to the GPS result.
  • Modeling: elastic half-space/boundary-element approach using 3D-DEF and Savage [1983]; locked subduction zone modeled as three segments with dips 10° (0–15 km), 18° (15–35 km), and 26° (35 km to maximum locking depth), locking depth 50 km (range 46–54 km), back slip at 78 mm/yr plate convergence; thrust faults at 600 and 650 km from the trench, dipping 30°W, locked to 20 km, with shortening rates of 3, 12, and 27 mm/yr tested for fully locked and 50% aseismic subduction.

Limitations

  • The paper states locking depth must be estimated indirectly because the study region has not ruptured in a large earthquake since modern seismic instrumentation was deployed; it uses 50 km and tests 46–54 km.
  • The paper states additional site velocity data west of Arequipa would better constrain subduction-zone models, while data east of Arequipa would directly measure geologic shortening; these data were still being collected.
  • Evident from the text: the GPS result rests on only five permanent sites and about two years of data, and the shortening estimate is model-dependent rather than directly measured east of Arequipa.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1029/97gl00770

Cites

23 of 23 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 17 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    Arequipa in the southern Peruvian Andes has a velocity of 13±3 mm/yr (two standard errors / 95% confidence) to the northeast, in direction 72±6°E, with respect to stable South America.

    “Two years of continuous GPS data from several sites in South America indicate that Arequipa in the southern Peruvian Andes has a velocity of 13+3 mm/yr (two standard errors) to the northeast with respect to stable South America.”
    • Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
      “Arequipa/GPS • 13_+3 0720_+6 ø”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The GPS and SLR estimates of Arequipa's velocity are equivalent at 95% confidence in rate and azimuth.

    “The similarity between GPS and SLR results (equivalent at 95% confidence in rate and azimuth) suggests that the NUVEL-1A model is a reasonable predictor of current North America-South America motion [Dixon and Mao, 1997].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingcitation

    An updated SLR analysis gives Arequipa a velocity of 20±6 mm/yr in direction 80°E relative to stable South America.

    “We updated this analysis to reflect the revised NUVEL-1A model velocities [DeMets et al., 1994], obtaining a velocity for Arequipa of 20+6 mm/yr in a direction 80øE (Table 2), similar in rate and direction to the GPS result.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites DeMets et al., 1994 source
  • Findingown data

    Models of elastic strain accumulation for fully locked subduction zones constrain shortening in the eastern Andes to 0-3 mm/yr.

    “Models of elastic strain accumulation for fully locked and partly locked subduction zones constrain shortening in the eastern Andes to 0-3 mm/yr (fully locked) and 0-12 mm/yr (partly locked), slower than some geologic estimates averaged over millions of years.”
    • Also stated in: § Introduction · boosted
      “The fully locked models with no to slow (0-3 mrn/yr) shortening are in good agreement (95% confidence) with the GPS data.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Locked subduction zone models incorporating moderate to fast shortening (>6 mm/yr) disagree with the GPS data at 95% confidence.

    “Locked subduction zone models incorporating moderate to fast shortening (>6 mrn/yr) disagree with the GPS data at 95% confidence.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 12
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 11
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Models with 50% aseismic subduction allow faster (up to 12 mm/yr) shortening, but exclude the high (27 mm/yr) shortening rate.

    “Models with 50% aseismic subduction allow faster (up to 12 mrn/yr) shortening, but exclude the high (27 mrn/yr) shortening rate.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Preliminary data from 25 sites observed in 1994 and 1996 confirm the results presented here and are consistent with partly aseismic subduction.

    “Preliminary data from 25 sites observed in 1994 and 1996 confirm results presented here and are consistent with partly aseismic subduction.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Accumulated slip is reduced by half for a 50% aseismic subduction model, reducing the corresponding estimate of earthquake magnitude.

    “Accumulated slip is reduced by half for a 50% aseismic subduction model, reducing the corresponding estimate of earthquake magnitude.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    The northern Bolivia cross sections imply an average shortening rate of 27 mm/yr.

    “Cross sections in northern Bolivia suggest 135 km shortening in the last 5 Ma [Roeder, 1988], i.e., 27 mm/yr average rate.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Cross sections in northern Bolivia suggest 135 km shortening in the last 5 Ma.

    “Cross sections in northern Bolivia suggest 135 km shortening in the last 5 Ma [Roeder, 1988], i.e., 27 mm/yr average rate.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Roeder, 1988 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Arequipa's motion likely reflects a combination of elastic strain accumulation associated with a locked Nazca-South America subduction zone and a small amount of crustal shortening across the fold and thrust belt on the eastern margin of the Andes.

    “We interpret these data as reflecting a combination of elastic strain accumulation associated with a locked Nazca-South America subduction zone and a small amount of crustal shortening across the fold and thrust belt on the eastern margin of the Andes.”
    • Also stated in: § Introduction · hedged
      “Arequipa's motion likely reflects both elastic (recoverable) strain accumulation associated with the seismic cycle at the locked subduction zone, and permanent shortening in the sub-Andean fold and thrust belt several hundred kilometers east.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    South of the study area (18°-24°), overall geometry gives a slab dip of about 18°, implying a dip at the deepest portion of about 26°.

    “South of our study area (18ø-24 ø) overall geometry gives a slab dip of about 18 ø, implying a dip at the deepest portion of about 26 ø.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Tichelaar and Ruff [1991] suggest that interplate thrust events south of the study area have rupture areas of about 10^4 km^2.

    “Tichelaar and Ruff [1991] suggest that interplate thrust events south of our area have rupture areas -104 km 2.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Tichelaar and Ruff, 1991 source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Tichelaar and Ruff [1991] suggested that for 18°S to 24°S, south of the study area, the coupled zone extends at least to 43-48 km.

    “Tichelaar and Ruff [1991 ] suggested that for 18øS to 24øS, south of our study area, the coupled zone extends at least to 43-48 km.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Tichelaar and Ruff, 1991 source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Schmitz [1994] estimated 320 km post-Cretaceous shortening for the entire south central Andes (trench to foreland).

    “Schmitz [1994] estimated 320 km post-Cretaceous shortening for the entire south central Andes (trench to foreland).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Schmitz, 1994 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The result implies a recent slowdown in the rate of crustal shortening, for which there is no firm evidence.

    “It also implies a recent slowdown in the rate of crustal shortening, for which there is no firm evidence.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The modeling results are not sensitive to the actual location of the thrust faults, their geometry, or the partitioning of motion between them.

    “To model the sub-Andean fold and thrust belt, we used faults 600 and 650 km from the trench, each accommodating half the geologic shortening (results are not sensitive to the actual location of the faults, their geometry or the partitioning of motion between them).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Although the average convergence rate for the last 10 Ma may have been less than the previous 10 Ma, the timing of the slowdown is poorly constrained.

    “Although the average convergence rate for the last 10Ma may have been less than the previous 10Ma, the timing of the slowdown is poorly constrained [Pardo-Casas and Molnar, 1987].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Pardo-Casas and Molnar, 1987 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The locus of shortening has migrated east with time, from the Altiplano in the Miocene to its present position in the Sub-Andean zone.

    “The locus of shortening has migrated east with time, from the Altiplano in the Miocene to its present position in the Sub-Andean zone [e.g., Suarez et al., 1983;Isacks, 1988].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Suarez et al., 1983 source
    • cites Isacks, 1988 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    If the fully locked interpretation is correct, there is no earthquake deficit in this region, nor any significant aseismic deformation.

    “If correct, there is no earthquake deficit in this region, nor any significant aseismic deformation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The plate convergence rate is 78 mm/yr.

    “Surface strain for a subduction zone is modeled by imposing back slip at the plate convergence rate [78 mrn/yr; DeMets et al., 1994] to simulate the locked segment.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites DeMets et al., 1994 source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Suarez et al. [1983] used rates of seismic energy release to suggest present-day shortening across the eastern Andes and sub-Andean belt at 1-2 mm/yr.

    “Suarez et al. [1983] used rates of seismic energy release to suggest present-day shortening across the eastern Andes and sub-Andean belt at 1-2 mm/yr.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Suarez et al., 1983 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Balanced cross sections across the central Bolivian fold and thrust belt suggest 210 km minimum shortening, all post-Oligocene.

    “Balanced cross sections across the central Bolivian fold and thrust belt suggest 210 km minimum shortening [Sheffels, 1990], all post-Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Sheffels, 1990

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Assuming a partly decoupled subduction zone, the GPS data allow higher shortening rates (up to 12 mm/yr), allow for aseismic deformation in the eastern Andes, and do not require a recent slowdown in shortening.

    “Assuming a partly decoupled subduction zone, our data allow higher shortening rates (up to 12 mm/yr), allow for aseismic deformation in the eastern Andes, and do not require a recent slowdown in shortening.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The subduction zone is partly decoupled, with 50% aseismic slip.
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The focal-mechanism dips are about 10° steeper than the trench-to-deepest-thrust dips, due to steepening of the subduction zone with depth.

    “The latter are about 10 ø steeper than the former, due to steepening of the subduction zone with depth.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
20 of 20
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All shortening happened in the last 25 million years.

    “Assuming all shortening happened in the last 25 million years, these estimates translate to average shortening rates of 8.4-12.8mm/yr.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The subduction zone is fully locked.

    “Assuming a fully locked subduction zone, our data are consistent with slow rates of eastern Andes shortening suggested by seismic data, implying that faster geological estimates averaged over 5-25 million years (8-27 mm/yr) are not indicative of the modern rate.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The subduction zone is partly decoupled, with 50% aseismic slip.

    “Assuming a partly decoupled subduction zone, our data allow higher shortening rates (up to 12 mm/yr), allow for aseismic deformation in the eastern Andes, and do not require a recent slowdown in shortening.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The plate interface is locked.

    “Assuming a locked plate interface, about 7 meters of slip has accumulated.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The last large earthquake in the area was in 1913.

    “It has been 82 years since the last large earthquake in the area (1913).”
5 of 5

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • James citation year differs from reference list

    Minor

    The introduction cites James as a 1972 publication, but the matching reference-list entry gives 1971.

1 of 1

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. 10.1130/0091-7613(1990)018<0812:LBOTAO>2.3.CO;2 · DOI · Paper page

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Leffler, L., Stein, S., Mao, A., Dixon, T., Ellis, M. A., Ocola, L., & Sacks, I. S.
Affiliations
  • Northwestern University (US)
  • University of Miami (US)
  • University of Memphis (US)
  • Instituto Geofísico del Perú (PE)
  • Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
Venue
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
1997-05
Volume
24
Issue
9
Pages
1031-1034
ISSN
  • 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-8007
OpenAlex
W2158099274
Cited by
28
References
23
Citations by year
2017: 1 · 2012: 1
FWCI
3.66
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
  • Digital Commons - University of South Florida (University of South Florida) (submittedVersion)
Funders
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geophysics › earthquake and tectonic studies
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geophysics › Geological and Tectonic Studies in Latin America
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geophysics › Geological and Geophysical Studies Worldwide
Keywords
Arequipa, GPS velocities, elastic strain accumulation, fold and thrust belt, crustal deformation, plate motion

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-18.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-18.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review