Using an Inverse Model to Reconcile Differences in Simulated and Observed Global Ethane Concentrations and Trends Between 2008 and 2014
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We use a global model, TOMCAT, and an inverse model, INVICAT, to estimate emissions of ethane (C 2 H 6) between 2008 and 2014 by assimilating surface flask observations. We find that baseline global emissions in 2008 need to increase by a factor of 2.04–2.11 in order for the model to capture C 2 H 6 observations, indicating large biases in current emission inventories. Most of this increase occurs over North America and Eurasia, with temperate North American emissions accounting for 23–26% of the total global emission increase and temperate Eurasian emissions accounting for 35–37%. Further to this, recent peer‐reviewed analysis of long‐term observational records shows an increase in C 2 H 6 in the Northern Hemisphere since ~2009. Our results indicate that annual global emissions of C 2 H 6 have increased at a rate of 0.27 ± 0.54–0.33 ± 0.44 Tg/yr 2 between 2008 and 2014. A statistically significant positive trend of 0.20 ± 0.11–0.24 ± 0.13 Tg/yr 2 (p ≤ 0.01) is found in temperate North America, resulting in emissions that are 31–32% larger in 2014 than in 2008. Our results corroborate previous studies' conclusions that a rapid increase in oil and natural gas production in United States over this time period is likely a large driver of the change in emissions.
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This represents a significant deterioration of regional air quality, as PAN is harmful to human health and directly related to ethane concentrations.
“This represents a significant deterioration of regional air quality, as PAN, a lachrymator and urban smog component is harmful to human health52,53, and directly related to ethane concentrations54.”
From The Red Sea Deep Water is a potent source of atmospheric ethane and propane (2020) · cites this paper as [54]
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Self-citationFranco, B., Bader, W., Toon, G. C., et al. (2015) · Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer · doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2015.03.017 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
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Wilson, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Gloor, M. U., & Chevallier, F. (2014) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-7-2485-2014 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Self-citationMonks, S. A., Arnold, S. R., & Chipperfield, M. P. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl052512 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
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Xiao, Y., Jacob, D. J., Wang, J. S., Logan, J. A., Palmer, P. I., Suntharalingam, P., Yantosca, R. M., Sachse, G. W., Blake, D. R., & Streets, D. G. (2004) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2003jd004475 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
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Self-citationPope, R. J., Richards, N. A. D., Chipperfield, M. P., Moore, D. P., Monks, S. A., Arnold, S. R., Glatthor, N., Kiefer, M., Breider, T. J., Harrison, J. J., et al. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-13541-2016 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Self-citationPollmann, J., Helmig, D., Hueber, J., et al. (2008) · Journal of Chromatography A · doi:10.1016/j.chroma.2008.02.059 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Self-citationComparing the CarbonTracker and TM5-4DVar data assimilation systems for CO 2 surface flux inversions
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Self-citationHakola, H., & Hellén, H. (2016) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2736 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The Red Sea Deep Water is a potent source of atmospheric ethane and propane
Bourtsoukidis, E., Pozzer, A., Sattler, T., Matthaios, V. N., Ernle, L., Edtbauer, A., Fischer, H., Könemann, T., Osipov, S., Paris, J.-D., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-14375-0 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
- Authors
- Monks, S. A., Wilson, C., Emmons, L. K., Hannigan, J. W., Helmig, D., Blake, N. J., & Blake, D. R.
- Affiliations
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (US)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Corresponding author
- Monks, S. A.
- Wilson, C.
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2018-10-08
- Volume
- 123
- Issue
- 19
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-897X
- 2169-8996
- OpenAlex
- W2886113976
- Cited by
- 28
- References
- 95
- Citations by year
- 2024: 5 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 2
- FWCI
- 2.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (acceptedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (#1108391, 1108391)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NAG5‐8935)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
- California Air Resources Board
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Keywords
- ethane, emission inventory, inverse modeling, Tomcat, data assimilation, oil and gas production, North America, Eurasia, Northern Hemisphere
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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