Cited by 28Atmospheric and Environmental Gas DynamicsAtmospheric chemistry and aerosolsAtmospheric Ozone and Climate

Using an Inverse Model to Reconcile Differences in Simulated and Observed Global Ethane Concentrations and Trends Between 2008 and 2014

Open access
Monks, S. A., Wilson, C., Emmons, L. K., Hannigan, J. W., Helmig, D., Blake, N. J., Blake, D. R.·2018·Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Abstract

We use a global model, TOMCAT, and an inverse model, INVICAT, to estimate emissions of ethane (C 2 H 6) between 2008 and 2014 by assimilating surface flask observations. We find that baseline global emissions in 2008 need to increase by a factor of 2.04–2.11 in order for the model to capture C 2 H 6 observations, indicating large biases in current emission inventories. Most of this increase occurs over North America and Eurasia, with temperate North American emissions accounting for 23–26% of the total global emission increase and temperate Eurasian emissions accounting for 35–37%. Further to this, recent peer‐reviewed analysis of long‐term observational records shows an increase in C 2 H 6 in the Northern Hemisphere since ~2009. Our results indicate that annual global emissions of C 2 H 6 have increased at a rate of 0.27 ± 0.54–0.33 ± 0.44 Tg/yr 2 between 2008 and 2014. A statistically significant positive trend of 0.20 ± 0.11–0.24 ± 0.13 Tg/yr 2 (p ≤ 0.01) is found in temperate North America, resulting in emissions that are 31–32% larger in 2014 than in 2008. Our results corroborate previous studies' conclusions that a rapid increase in oil and natural gas production in United States over this time period is likely a large driver of the change in emissions.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1029/2017jd028112

Cites

95 of 95 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • This represents a significant deterioration of regional air quality, as PAN is harmful to human health and directly related to ethane concentrations.

    “This represents a significant deterioration of regional air quality, as PAN, a lachrymator and urban smog component is harmful to human health52,53, and directly related to ethane concentrations54.”

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Monks, S. A., Wilson, C., Emmons, L. K., Hannigan, J. W., Helmig, D., Blake, N. J., & Blake, D. R.
Affiliations
  • Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
  • University of Leeds (GB)
  • NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
  • Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (US)
  • University of California, Irvine (US)
Corresponding author
  • Monks, S. A.
  • Wilson, C.
Venue
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Published
2018-10-08
Volume
123
Issue
19
ISSN
  • 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
  • 2169-897X
  • 2169-8996
OpenAlex
W2886113976
Cited by
28
References
95
Citations by year
2024: 5 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 2
FWCI
2.49
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
  • NOAA Institutional Repository (acceptedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (#1108391, 1108391)
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NAG5‐8935)
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research
  • California Air Resources Board
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
Keywords
ethane, emission inventory, inverse modeling, Tomcat, data assimilation, oil and gas production, North America, Eurasia, Northern Hemisphere

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review