The DOI matches its Crossref record; 8 of the 8 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Future Fire Impacts on Smoke Concentrations, Visibility, and Health in the Contiguous United States
Open accessAbstract
Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) from U.S. anthropogenic sources is decreasing. However, previous studies have predicted that PM 2.5 emissions from wildfires will increase in the midcentury to next century, potentially offsetting improvements gained by continued reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Therefore, some regions could experience worse air quality, degraded visibility, and increases in population‐level exposure. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the impacts of changing fire emissions on air quality, visibility, and premature deaths in the middle and late 21st century. We find that PM 2.5 concentrations will decrease overall in the contiguous United States (CONUS) due to decreasing anthropogenic emissions (total PM 2.5 decreases by 3% in Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5 and 34% in RCP4.5 by 2100), but increasing fire‐related PM 2.5 (fire‐related PM 2.5 increases by 55% in RCP4.5 and 190% in RCP8.5 by 2100) offsets these benefits and causes increases in total PM 2.5 in some regions. We predict that the average visibility will improve across the CONUS, but fire‐related PM 2.5 will reduce visibility on the worst days in western and southeastern U.S. regions. We estimate that the number of deaths attributable to total PM 2.5 will decrease in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (from 6% to 4–5%), but the absolute number of premature deaths attributable to fire‐related PM 2.5 will double compared to early 21st century. We provide the first estimates of future smoke health and visibility impacts using a prognostic land‐fire model. Our results suggest the importance of using realistic fire emissions in future air quality projections.
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Citations
Cites
Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1128834 · Cited by 5,176 · cited 1×
“5 in the United States, and studies have shown that the number of large wildfires has been increasing in the western United States due to warmer temperatures, earlier spring snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (e.g., Westerling, 2016; Westerling et al., 2006).”
BackgroundO’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 · Cited by 3,359
Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States
Balch, J. K., Bradley, B. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Nagy, R. C., Fusco, E. J., & Mahood, A. L. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1617394114 · Cited by 1,043
Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires
Johnston, F. H., Henderson, S. B., Chen, Y., Randerson, J. T., Marlier, M., DeFries, R. S., Kinney, P., Bowman, D. M. J. S., & Brauer, M. (2012) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.1104422 · Cited by 852
Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Jones, B., & O’Neill, B. C. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003 · Cited by 817
Anenberg, S. C., Horowitz, L. W., Tong, D. Q., & West, J. J. (2010) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.0901220 · Cited by 747
Self-citationClimate change and wildfire in California
Westerling, A. L., & Bryant, B. P. (2008) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9363-z · Cited by 432
Wildfire Ignitions: A Review of the Science and Recommendations for Empirical Modeling
Prestemon, J. P., Hawbaker, T. J., Bowden, M., Carpenter, J., Brooks, M. T., Abt, K. L., Sutphen, R., & Scranton, S. (2013) · doi:10.2737/srs-gtr-171 · Cited by 52
Cited by
Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications
Ebi, K. L., Vanos, J., Baldwin, J. W., Bell, J. E., Hondula, D. M., Errett, N. A., Hayes, K., Reid, C. E., Saha, S., Spector, J., et al. (2021) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-012420-105026 · Cited by 1,213
Wildfire smoke exposure under climate change: impact on respiratory health of affected communities
Reid, C. E., & Maestas, M. M. (2019) · Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine · doi:10.1097/mcp.0000000000000552 · Cited by 169
Zhang, B., Weuve, J., Langa, K. M., D’Souza, J., Szpiro, A., Faul, J., Mendes de Leon, C., Gao, J., Kaufman, J. D., Sheppard, L., et al. (2023) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.3300 · Cited by 164
Systematic review of climate change effects on reproductive health
Segal, T. R., & Giudice, L. C. (2022) · Fertility and Sterility · doi:10.1016/j.fertnstert.2022.06.005 · Cited by 140
Kodros, J. K., O’Dell, K., Samet, J. M., L’Orange, C., Pierce, J. R., & Volckens, J. (2021) · GeoHealth · doi:10.1029/2021gh000482 · Cited by 93
Self-citationNew seasonal pattern of pollution emerges from changing North American wildfires
Buchholz, R. R., Park, M., Worden, H. M., Tang, W., Edwards, D. P., Gaubert, B., Deeter, M. N., Sullivan, T., Ru, M., Chin, M., et al. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29623-8 · Cited by 65
Up in smoke: California's greenhouse gas reductions could be wiped out by 2020 wildfires
Jerrett, M., Jina, A. S., & Marlier, M. E. (2022) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119888 · Cited by 55
Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6
Tang, W., Tilmes, S., Lawrence, D. M., Li, F., He, C., Emmons, L. K., Buchholz, R. R., & Xia, L. (2023) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023 · Cited by 21
Metadata
- Authors
- Ford, B., Val Martin, M., Zelasky, S. E., Fischer, E. V., Anenberg, S. C., Heald, C. L., & Pierce, J. R.
- Venue
- GeoHealth
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2018-08
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 229-247
- ISSN
- 2471-1403 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2853075952
- Cited by
- 307
- References
- 8
- FWCI
- 14.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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