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Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices
Abstract
Changes in global fire activity are influenced by a multitude of factors including land‐cover change, policies, and climatic conditions. This study uses 17 climate models to evaluate when changes in fire weather, as realized through the Fire Weather Index, emerge from the expected range of internal variability due to anthropogenic climate change using the time of emergence framework. Anthropogenic increases in extreme Fire Weather Index days emerge for 22% of burnable land area globally by 2019, including much of the Mediterranean and the Amazon. By the midtwenty‐first century, emergence among the different Fire Weather Index metrics occurs for 33–62% of burnable lands. Emergence of heightened fire weather becomes more widespread as a function of global temperature change. At 2 °C above preindustrial levels, the area of emergence is half that for 3 °C. These results highlight increases in fire weather conditions with human‐caused climate change and incentivize local adaptation efforts to limit detrimental fire impacts.
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“Globally, anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a significant driver of increased fire danger, independent of natural climate variability (Abatzoglou, Williams, & Barbero, 2019).”
From Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers (2020) · cites this paper as Abatzoglou, Williams, & Barbero, 2019
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“Causes for these fires are multiple, but climate change has been implicated as a critical factor (Williams et al. 2019; Abatzoglou et al. 2019).”
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“By mid21st century, a “new normal” of heightened fire weather conditions are expected under projected warming (12, 20).”
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“To mitigate this difficulty, many studies have focused on identifying the links between fire weather and wildfire activity (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Bedia et al., 2015), following the assumption that weather has the most important control on fire.”
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InfluentialGlobal burned area increasingly explained by climate change
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“Several authors have emphasized the impact of climate change on fire occurrence, particularly the increasing frequency of drought periods and heat waves [243] leading to extreme events [244].”
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“Climate projections show continued increases in the occurrence of synchronous fire danger through the 21st century, congruent with regional increases in fire weather indices (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Flannigan et al., 2013).”
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Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate
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Tripling of western US particulate pollution from wildfires in a warming climate
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Rapid bacterial and fungal successional dynamics in first year after chaparral wildfire
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“The rapid increase in wildfire frequency, severity, and extent in the western United States (Riley & Loehman, 2016) and around the globe (Abatzoglou et al., 2019) has renewed interest in secondary succession.”
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Climate drivers of global wildfire burned area
Grillakis, M. G., Voulgarakis, A., Rovithakis, A., Seiradakis, K. D., Koutroulis, A., Field, R. D., Kasoar, M. R., Papadopoulos, A., & Lazaridis, M. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5fa1 · Cited by 105
Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires
Higuera, P. E., Cook, M., Balch, J. K., Stavros, E. N., Mahood, A. L., & Denis, L. A. S. (2023) · PNAS Nexus · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005 · Cited by 96
“Mitigating anthropogenic climate change, given its impacts on fuel aridity (6, 14, 19), is a clear overarching necessity for addressing the wildfire crisis.”
BackgroundKelley, D. I., Burton, C., Giuseppe, F. D., Jones, M. W., Barbosa, M. L. F., Brambleby, E., McNorton, J., Liu, Z., Bradley, A. S. I., Blackford, K. R., et al. (2025) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025 · Cited by 108
Self-citationExtratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires
Janssen, T. A. J., Jones, M. W., Finney, D., van der Werf, G. R., van Wees, D., Xu, W., & Veraverbeke, S. (2023) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01322-z · Cited by 96
“In these forests, increases in lightning occurrence are likely to further exacerbate the effects of increased flammability on fire occurrence and burned area 17,35 .”
Systems knowledge for sustainable soil and land management
Löbmann, M. T., Maring, L., Prokop, G., Brils, J. M., Bender, J., Bispo, A., & Helming, K. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153389 · Cited by 95
Yu, Y., Mao, J., Wullschleger, S. D., Chen, A., Shi, X., Wang, Y., Hoffman, F. M., Zhang, Y., & Pierce, E. M. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28853-0 · Cited by 94
Rahman, G., Jung, M., Kim, T., & Kwon, H. (2025) · KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.kscej.2024.100120 · Cited by 102
Fargeon, H., Pimont, F., Martin-StPaul, N. K., Cáceres, M. D., Ruffault, J., Barbero, R., & Dupuy, J. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02629-w · Cited by 90
Self-citationThe Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information
Ruane, A. C., Vautard, R., Ranasinghe, R., Sillmann, J., Coppola, E., Arnell, N. W., Cruz, F. A. T., Dessai, S., Iles, C. E., Islam, A. K. M. S., et al. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef002803 · Cited by 84
“capacity and firefighting efforts (Abatzoglou et al., 2019).”
BackgroundUnderstanding fire regimes in Europe
Galizia, L. F., Curt, T., Barbero, R., & Rodrígues, M. (2021) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf21081 · Cited by 82
Self-citationChanges in land use enhance the sensitivity of tropical ecosystems to fire-climate extremes
Kumar, S. V., Getirana, A., Libonati, R., Hain, C., Mahanama, S., & Andela, N. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-05130-0 · Cited by 87
Extreme fire weather in Chile driven by climate change and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Cordero, R. R., Feron, S. C., Damiani, A., Carrasco, J. F., Karas, C., Wang, C., Kraamwinkel, C. T., & Beaulieu, A. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-52481-x · Cited by 79
Ecological resilience and vegetation transition in the face of two successive large wildfires
Steel, Z. L., Foster, D. E., Coppoletta, M., Lydersen, J. M., Stephens, S. L., Paudel, A., Markwith, S. H., Merriam, K. E., & Collins, B. M. (2021) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.13764 · Cited by 82
“While topography is fixed, weather is highly dynamic at short (diurnal) and intermediate (annual) time- scales and sensitive to climate change at longer (multidecadal) time- scales (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Collins, 2014).”
BackgroundBoaggio, K. L., LeDuc, S. D., Rice, R. B., Duffney, P. F., Foley, K. M., Holder, A. L., McDow, S. R., & Weaver, C. P. (2022) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.2c02099 · Cited by 83
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Socio-Psychological, Economic and Environmental Effects of Forest Fires
Kalogiannidis, S., Chatzitheodoridis, F., Kalfas, D., Patitsa, C. D., & Papagrigoriou, A. (2023) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire6070280 · Cited by 97
“Fires have become more intense as a result of global climate change, with far-reaching ecological and social consequences [66–69].”
What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?
Park, T., Hashimoto, H., Wang, W., Thrasher, B. L., Michaelis, A., Lee, T. J., Brosnan, I. G., & Nemani, R. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef003330 · Cited by 75
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“Hotter temperatures from a warming climate coupled with lower moisture from chang-es in precipitation regimes also produce drier conditions, intensifying the risk for larger wildfires ( 9 , 10 ).”
Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes
Menor, I. O., Prat‐Guitart, N., Spadoni, G. L., Hsu, A., Fernandes, P. M., Puig-Gironès, R., Ascoli, D., Bilbao, B., Bacciu, V., Brotons, L., et al. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9 · Cited by 76
“Climate change modi fi es the fi re weather 3 promoting extreme fi re behaviour 4 and, in many regions, it has increased vegetation fl ammability 1,3 , the frequency and intensity of wild fi res 5 (Table 1).”
Attributing Increases in Fire Weather to Anthropogenic Climate Change Over France
Barbero, R., Abatzoglou, J. T., Pimont, F., Ruffault, J., & Curt, T. (2020) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2020.00104 · Cited by 85
“Climate change projections suggest widespread increase in fire danger and fire weather extremes across much of the globe over the twenty-first century (Abatzoglou et al., 2019).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationHow climate change and fire exclusion drive wildfire regimes at actionable scales
Hanan, E. J., Ren, J., Tague, C., Kolden, C. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Bart, R. R., Kennedy, M. C., Liu, M., & Adam, J. C. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd78e · Cited by 80
Self-citationQuilcaille, Y., Batıbeniz, F., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Padrón, R. S., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2023) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023 · Cited by 80
Pyrogenic carbon decomposition critical to resolving fire’s role in the Earth system
Bowring, S., Jones, M. W., Ciais, P., Guenet, B., & Abiven, S. (2022) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00892-0 · Cited by 72
Ecological consequences of Australia's “Black Summer” bushfires: Managing for recovery
Dickman, C. R. (2021) · Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management · doi:10.1002/ieam.4496 · Cited by 67
Tang, W., He, C., Emmons, L. K., & Zhang, J. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad31da · Cited by 67
New seasonal pattern of pollution emerges from changing North American wildfires
Buchholz, R. R., Park, M., Worden, H. M., Tang, W., Edwards, D. P., Gaubert, B., Deeter, M. N., Sullivan, T., Ru, M., Chin, M., et al. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29623-8 · Cited by 65
The importance of antecedent vegetation and drought conditions as global drivers of burnt area
Kuhn-Régnier, A., Voulgarakis, A., Nowack, P. J., Forkel, M., Prentice, I. C., & Harrison, S. P. (2021) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-18-3861-2021 · Cited by 69
“…by a number of regional studies (e.g. Westerling, 2006; van Oldenborgh et al., 2021; Goss et al., 2020; Barbero et al., 2015) At the global scale, Abatzoglou et al. (2019) showed that anthropogenic climate change had led to an increase in fire weather over 22 % of the global burnable area by…”
McEvoy, D. J., Pierce, D. W., Kalansky, J. F., Cayan, D. R., & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001736 · Cited by 64
“Several studies have examined climate change impacts on fire weather and fire danger indices in the region (Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Brown et al., 2004; Goss et al., 2020), but thus far, no studies have evaluated projected changes in extreme EDDI days for fire danger applications.”
BackgroundSelf-citationTowards a systemic approach to fire risk management
Bacciu, V., Sirca, C., & Spano, D. (2021) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.12.015 · Cited by 74
Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece
Rovithakis, A., Grillakis, M. G., Seiradakis, K. D., Giannakopoulos, C., Karali, A., Field, R. D., Lazaridis, M., & Voulgarakis, A. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5f94 · Cited by 75
Predicting Paradise: Modeling future wildfire disasters in the western US
Ager, A. A., Day, M. A., Alcasena, F., Evers, C., Short, K. C., & Grenfell, I. C. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147057 · Cited by 68
“Given predicted climate change effects on the global fire footprint (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016; Abatzoglou et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2010), analytical templates need to begin incorporating the assessment of wildfire exposure from extreme wildfire events aswith other natural disasters.”
BackgroundXu, Y., Uhl, D., Zhang, N., Zhao, C., Qin, S., Liang, H., & Sun, Y. (2020) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2020.109819 · Cited by 61
Ocean carbon from space: Current status and priorities for the next decade
Brewin, R. J. W., Sathyendranath, S., Kulk, G., Rio, M., Concha, J. A., Bell, T. G., Bracher, A. U., Fichot, C. G., Frölicher, T. L., Galí, M., et al. (2023) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104386 · Cited by 67
Climate-induced fire regime amplification in Alberta, Canada
Whitman, E., Parks, S. A., Holsinger, L. M., & Parisien, M. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac60d6 · Cited by 61
Extreme weather in a changing climate
Capua, G. D., & Rahmstorf, S. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acfb23 · Cited by 67
“Model experiments estimate that anthropogenic induced changes in fire weather indices have already emerged from natural variability for 22% of the burnable land area globally by 2019, while by the mid twenty-first century the emergence will reach 30%–60% (Abatzoglou et al 2019).”
BackgroundVirgilio, G. D., Evans, J. P., Clarke, H. G., Sharples, J. J., Hirsch, A. L., & Hart, M. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl088893 · Cited by 59
“Climate change is already driving wildfire weather conditions away from the expected range of internal variability for a large portion of the globe, and this will become more widespread with continued global warming (Abatzoglou et al., 2019).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., & Barbero, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Idaho (US)
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University New York NY USA
- Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Abatzoglou, John T.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-01-08
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 326-336
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2902663386
- Semantic Scholar
- cb21fa91c7c190d89887888cce536eccbcd405fb
- Cited by
- 680
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2026: 101 · 2025: 117 · 2024: 118 · 2023: 115 · 2022: 115 · 2021: 74 · 2020: 35 · 2019: 5
- FWCI
- 16.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DMS‐1520873)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Keywords
- fire weather, fire weather index, emergence timing, anthropogenic climate change, climate model projections, global temperature change, Amazon fires, fire adaptation
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