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Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices
Abstract
Changes in global fire activity are influenced by a multitude of factors including land‐cover change, policies, and climatic conditions. This study uses 17 climate models to evaluate when changes in fire weather, as realized through the Fire Weather Index, emerge from the expected range of internal variability due to anthropogenic climate change using the time of emergence framework. Anthropogenic increases in extreme Fire Weather Index days emerge for 22% of burnable land area globally by 2019, including much of the Mediterranean and the Amazon. By the midtwenty‐first century, emergence among the different Fire Weather Index metrics occurs for 33–62% of burnable lands. Emergence of heightened fire weather becomes more widespread as a function of global temperature change. At 2 °C above preindustrial levels, the area of emergence is half that for 3 °C. These results highlight increases in fire weather conditions with human‐caused climate change and incentivize local adaptation efforts to limit detrimental fire impacts.
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“Globally, anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a significant driver of increased fire danger, independent of natural climate variability (Abatzoglou, Williams, & Barbero, 2019).”
From Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers (2020) · cites this paper as Abatzoglou, Williams, & Barbero, 2019
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., & Barbero, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Idaho (US)
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University New York NY USA
- Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Abatzoglou, John T.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-01-08
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 326-336
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2902663386
- Semantic Scholar
- cb21fa91c7c190d89887888cce536eccbcd405fb
- Cited by
- 680
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2026: 101 · 2025: 117 · 2024: 118 · 2023: 115 · 2022: 115 · 2021: 74 · 2020: 35 · 2019: 5
- FWCI
- 16.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DMS‐1520873)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Keywords
- fire weather, fire weather index, emergence timing, anthropogenic climate change, climate model projections, global temperature change, Amazon fires, fire adaptation
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