The DOI matches its Crossref record; 65 of the 66 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices
Abstract
Changes in global fire activity are influenced by a multitude of factors including land‐cover change, policies, and climatic conditions. This study uses 17 climate models to evaluate when changes in fire weather, as realized through the Fire Weather Index, emerge from the expected range of internal variability due to anthropogenic climate change using the time of emergence framework. Anthropogenic increases in extreme Fire Weather Index days emerge for 22% of burnable land area globally by 2019, including much of the Mediterranean and the Amazon. By the midtwenty‐first century, emergence among the different Fire Weather Index metrics occurs for 33–62% of burnable lands. Emergence of heightened fire weather becomes more widespread as a function of global temperature change. At 2 °C above preindustrial levels, the area of emergence is half that for 3 °C. These results highlight increases in fire weather conditions with human‐caused climate change and incentivize local adaptation efforts to limit detrimental fire impacts.
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“Globally, anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a significant driver of increased fire danger, independent of natural climate variability (Abatzoglou, Williams, & Barbero, 2019).”
From Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers (2020) · cites this paper as Abatzoglou, Williams, & Barbero, 2019
Citations
Cites
MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets
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Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
Abatzoglou, J. T., & Williams, A. P. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1607171113 · Cited by 3,073
Self-citationClimate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013
Jolly, W. M., Cochrane, M. A., Freeborn, P. H., Holden, Z. A., Brown, T. J., Williamson, G. J., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2015) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms8537 · Cited by 2,200
Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
Rosenzweig, C. E., Karoly, D. J., Vicarelli, M., Neofotis, P. G., Wu, Q., Casassa, G., Menzel, A., Root, T. L., Estrella, N., Séguin, B., et al. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06937 · Cited by 1,574
Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire
Flannigan, M. D., Krawchuk, M. A., de Groot, W. J., Wotton, B. M., & Gowman, L. M. (2009) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf08187 · Cited by 1,460
Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring
Westerling, A. L. (2016) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2015.0178 · Cited by 1,322
A human-driven decline in global burned area
Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Chen, Y., van der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., DeFries, R. S., Collatz, G. J., Hantson, S., Kloster, S., et al. (2017) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aal4108 · Cited by 1,262
Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States
Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Hidalgo, H. G., Bonfils, C., Santer, B. D., Das, T., Bala, G., Wood, A. W., Nozawa, T., Mirin, A. A., et al. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1152538 · Cited by 1,193
Global burned area and biomass burning emissions from small fires
Randerson, J. T., Chen, Y., van der Werf, G. R., Rogers, B. M., & Morton, D. C. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2012jg002128 · Cited by 989
Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity
Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Batllori, E., Krawchuk, M. A., Van Dorn, J., Ganz, D. J., & Hayhoe, K. (2012) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es11-00345.1 · Cited by 959
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(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · doi:10.1017/9781009325844 · Cited by 10,921
The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future
Romanello, M., McGushin, A., Di Napoli, C., Drummond, P., Hughes, N., Jamart, L., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Solano Rodriguez, B., Arnell, N., et al. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01787-6 · Cited by 1,603
Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Bakker, D. C. E., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Luijkx, I. T., Peters, G. P., et al. (2023) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023 · Cited by 1,500
Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change
Jones, M. W., Abatzoglou, J. T., Veraverbeke, S., Andela, N., Lasslop, G., Forkel, M., Smith, A. J. P., Burton, C., Betts, R. A., van der Werf, G. R., et al. (2022) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2020rg000726 · Cited by 1,332
Self-citationVegetation fires in the Anthropocene
Bowman, D. M. J. S., Kolden, C. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Johnston, F. H., van der Werf, G. R., & Flannigan, M. (2020) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-020-0085-3 · Cited by 1,198
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., & Barbero, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Idaho (US)
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University New York NY USA
- Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Abatzoglou, John T.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-01-08
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 326-336
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2902663386
- Semantic Scholar
- cb21fa91c7c190d89887888cce536eccbcd405fb
- Cited by
- 680
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2026: 101 · 2025: 117 · 2024: 118 · 2023: 115 · 2022: 115 · 2021: 74 · 2020: 35 · 2019: 5
- FWCI
- 16.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DMS‐1520873)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Keywords
- fire weather, fire weather index, emergence timing, anthropogenic climate change, climate model projections, global temperature change, Amazon fires, fire adaptation
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