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Climate Sensitivity on Geological Timescales Controlled by Nonlinear Feedbacks and Ocean Circulation
Abstract
Climate sensitivity is a key metric used to assess the magnitude of global warming given increased CO 2 concentrations. The geological past can provide insights into climate sensitivity; however, on timescales of millions of years, factors other than CO 2 can drive climate, including paleogeographic forcing and solar luminosity. Here, through an ensemble of climate model simulations covering the period 150–35 million years ago, we show that climate sensitivity to CO 2 doubling varies between ∼3.5 and 5.5 °C through this time. These variations can be explained as a nonlinear response to solar luminosity, evolving surface albedo due to changes in ocean area, and changes in ocean circulation. The work shows that the modern climate sensitivity is relatively low in the context of the geological record, as a result of relatively weak feedbacks due to a relatively low CO 2 baseline, and the presence of ice and relatively small ocean area in the modern continental configuration.
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“The Maastrichtian has been shown to have a relatively high climate sensitivity (6), meaning even relatively small perturbations to the system could potentially have a catastrophic impact.”
From Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction (2020) · cites this paper as [6]
In the citing paper
“Unlike previous studies using AOGCMs (18, 76–78) to explore the effect of end-Cretaceous volcanism and asteroid impact (and associated aerosol ejecta), we do not use a modern-day topography and bathymetry, but geologic stage-specific boundary conditions representative of the end-Cretaceous paleogeography instead (6).”
From Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction (2020) · cites this paper as [6]
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Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Russell, G., & Kharecha, P. (2013) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294 · Cited by 660
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Cited by
An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence
Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., Hargreaves, J. C., Hegerl, G., Klein, S. A., Marvel, K. D., Rohling, E. J., et al. (2020) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2019rg000678 · Cited by 1,254
Self-citationAsteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction
Chiarenza, A. A., Farnsworth, A., Mannion, P. D., Lunt, D. J., Valdes, P. J., Morgan, J. V., & Allison, P. A. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2006087117 · Cited by 228
Self-citationde Winter, N. J., Müller, I. A., Kocken, I. J., Thibault, N., Ullmann, C. V., Farnsworth, A., Lunt, D. J., Claeys, P., & Ziegler, M. (2021) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00193-9 · Cited by 52
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Farnsworth, A., Lunt, D. J., O'Brien, C. L., Foster, G. L., Inglis, G. N., Markwick, P., Pancost, R. D., & Robinson, S. A.
- Affiliations
- School of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute University of Bristol Bristol UK
- Department of Geology and Geophysics Yale University New Haven CT USA
- Ocean and Earth Science University of Southampton Southampton UK
- School of Earth Sciences, School of Chemistry, and Cabot Institute University of Bristol Bristol UK
- Knowing Earth Ltd UK
- Department of Earth Sciences University of Oxford Oxford UK
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-08-20
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 9880-9889
- ISSN
- 0094-8276
- 1944-8007
- Cited by
- 138
- References
- 2
- Language
- en
- Funders
- H2020 European Research Council
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/K014757/1, NE/I005722/1, NE/I005714/1, NE/K012479/1, NE/I005501/2, NE/P01903X/1)
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