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Radiative forcing of climate by changes in the vertical distribution of ozone

Lacis, Andrew A., Wuebbles, Donald J., Logan, Jennifer A.·1990·Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

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Abstract

We describe a simple method for evaluating the radiative forcing of surface temperature caused by changes in the vertical distribution of ozone. The method employs a parameterization based on one‐dimensional radiative‐convective equilibrium calculations; these calculations predict that the surface temperature should warm in response to both decreases in ozone above 30 km and increases in ozone below 30 km. The parameterization is used to investigate the response of surface temperature to observed changes in the vertical distribution of ozone at northern mid‐latitudes. We show that the observed ozone trends, taken at face value, suggest a cooling of the surface temperature at northern mid‐latitudes during the 1970s equal in magnitude to about half the warming predicted for CO 2 for the same time period. However, the measurement uncertainty of the observed trends is large, with the best estimates for mid‐latitude cooling being −0.05±0.05°C. The surface cooling is caused by ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere, which outweigh the warming effects of ozone increases in the troposphere. The results obtained differ from predictions based on one‐dimensional photochemical model simulations of ozone trends for the 1970s, which suggest a warming of the surface temperature equal to ∼20% of the warming contributed by CO 2 . Also, the ozone decreases observed in the lower stratosphere during the 1970s produce atmospheric cooling by several tenths of a degree in the 12‐ to 20‐km altitude region over the northern mid‐latitudes. This temperature decrease is larger than the cooling due to CO 2 and thus may obscure the expected stratospheric CO 2 greenhouse signature.

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10.1111/j.1600-0889.1987.tb00099.x · DOI
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Lacis A., 1979, Fourth National Aeronautics and Space Administration Weather and Climate Program Science Review, 309

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“(Lacis et al. 1990; Ramaswamy et al. 1992).”
Background
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“[2] Ozone is a major greenhouse gas, whose radiative forcing depends on its vertical distribution between the stratosphere and the troposphere [Lacis et al., 1990].”
Background
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“However, changes in tropospheric O3 above the boundary layer do have the potential to impact climate (Lacis et al., 1990).”
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“The concept of radiative forcing provides an estimate of the potential effect on climate from GHGs.”
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The present-day and future impact of NOx emissions from subsonic aircraft on the atmosphere in relation to the impact of NOx surface sources
Valks, P., & Velders, G. J. M. (1999) · Annales Geophysicae · doi:10.1007/s00585-999-1064-7 · Cited by 11
“This leads to an increase of ozone in the upper part of the troposphere and the lower part of the stratosphere, where the sensitivity of radiative forcing to changes in ozone is much greater than near the Earth's surface (Lacis et al., 1990; IPCC, 1996; Wauben et al., 1998).”
Background
Sensitivities of atmospheric composition and climate to altitude and latitude of hypersonic aircraft emissions
Pletzer, J., & Grewe, V. (2024) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-24-1743-2024 · Cited by 10
“…forcing A variety of publications exist where idealized atmospheric composition changes are used for sensitivity studies of the radiative effect: Lacis et al. (1990), Hansen et al. (1997), de F. Forster and Shine (1997), with Riese et al. (2012) being one of the most recent ones However, our…”
Background
Spatial and Temporal Variability of Total Column Ozone over the Indian Subcontinent: A Study Based on Nimbus-7 TOMS Satellite
Madhu, V. (2014) · Atmospheric and Climate Sciences · doi:10.4236/acs.2014.45078 · Cited by 10
“In the cold upper troposphere, ozone has a potent greenhouse effect [1] [2] Stratospheric ozone is naturally formed in chemical reactions involving ultraviolet sunlight and oxygen molecules.”
Background
Seasonality of the MJO Impact on Upper Troposphere–Lower Stratosphere Temperature, Circulation, and Composition
Tweedy, O. V., Oman, L. D., & Waugh, D. W. (2020) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas-d-19-0183.1 · Cited by 10
Effect of meteorology on the variability of ozone in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over a tropical station Thumba (8.5°N, 76.9°E)
Chandran, P. R. S., Sunilkumar, S. V., Muhsin, M., et al. (2021) · Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics · doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105567 · Cited by 10
Analysis of atmospheric ozone in Fenwei Plain based on remote sensing monitoring
Peng, S., Ju, T., Liang, Z., et al. (2022) · Environmental Monitoring and Assessment · doi:10.1007/s10661-022-10082-z · Cited by 10
“…by a series of atmospheric photochemical reactions among precursor substances such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) under the action of ultraviolet rays, and is a secondary pollutant with strong oxidizing properties (Fishman & Crutzen, 1978; Lacis et al., 1990).”
Background
A tropospheric ozone maximum over the equatorial Southern Indian Ocean
Zhang, L., Li, Q. B., Murray, L. T., et al. (2012) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-12-4279-2012 · Cited by 10
Implications of subsonic aircraft NOx emissions for the chemistry of the lowermost stratosphere: Model studies on the role of bromine
Hendricks, J., Lippert, E., Petry, H., et al. (2000) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/1999jd901099 · Cited by 10
Climatic consequences of observed ozone loss in the 1980s: Relevance to the greenhouse problem
Molnar, G. I., Ko, M. K. W., Zhou, S., & Sze, N. D. (1994) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/94jd02091 · Cited by 10
Radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone: Impact of cloud representation
Roelofs, G. J. (1999) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/1999gl900029 · Cited by 11
Anthropogenic Fingerprint Detectable in Upper Tropospheric Ozone Trends Retrieved from Satellite
Yu, X., Fiore, A. M., Santer, B. D., Correa, G. J. P., Lamarque, J., Ziemke, J. R., Eastham, S. D., & Zhu, Q. (2024) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.4c01289 · Cited by 10
Lightning NOx in the 29–30 May 2012 Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) Severe Storm and Its Downwind Chemical Consequences
Pickering, K., Li, Y., Cummings, K. A., et al. (2024) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2023jd039439 · Cited by 9
“In this portion of the atmosphere, NO x well downwind of thunderstorms has a longer lifetime than in the boundary layer and a large influence on ozone (O 3 ) (e.g., D. Allen et al., 2010), a significant greenhouse gas (Lacis et al., 1990), having a positive radiative forcing on the climate.”
Background
The application of remote sensing techniques for air pollution analysis and climate change on Indian subcontinent
Palve, S. N., Nemade, P. D., & Ghude, S. D. (2016) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/37/1/012076 · Cited by 9
Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century
Banerjee, A., Maycock, A. C., & Pyle, J. A. (2018) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018 · Cited by 9
Wet Scavenging in WRF‐Chem Simulations of Parameterized Convection for a Severe Storm During the DC3 Field Campaign
Li, Y., Pickering, K., Barth, M. C., et al. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd030484 · Cited by 9
“…rate of O3 in the UT cloud outflow (Pickering et al., 1990; Pickering, Scala, et al., 1992; Pickering, Thompson, et al., 1992) where the lifetime of O3 is longer in comparison with the PBL region, which considerably impacts the Earth's radiation budget and climate (e.g., Lacis et al., 1990).”
Background
Solar Forcing of Global Change
Lean, J. L. (1994) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-79257-1_10 · Cited by 9
Tropospheric chemistry over the lower Great Plains of the United States. 1. Meteorology
Ryan, W. F. J., Dickerson, R. R., Huffman, G. J., et al. (1992) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/92jd01375 · Cited by 9
Creating a global warming implementation regime
Harvey, L. D. (1995) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/0959-3780(95)00055-s · Cited by 9
Retrieval of ozone profile from ground-based measurements with polarization: A synthetic study
Guo, X., Natraj, V., Feldman, D., Spurr, R., Shia, R., Sander, S. P., & Yung, Y. L. (2006) · Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer · doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2006.05.008 · Cited by 9
“It has been proposed that ozone, especially the lower stratospheric component, can affect the earth’s climate significantly [3–6].”
Background
The effects of future supersonic aircraft on stratospheric chemistry modeled with varying meteorology
Rogers, H. L., Chipperfield, M. P., Bekki, S., & Pyle, J. A. (2000) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2000jd900411 · Cited by 9
A three-dimensional model study of nitrogen oxides in the stratosphere
Lary, D. J., Pyle, J. A., & Carver, G. D. (1994) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.49712051610 · Cited by 9
Climatic effects of NOx emissions through changes in tropospheric O3 and CH4: A global 3D model study
Fuglestvedt, J. S., Berntsen, T. K., Isaksen, I. S. A., Mao, H., Liang, X., & Wang, W. (1997) · NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives · Cited by 9
Evolution of ozone formation regimes during different periods in representative regions of China
Zhang, J., Shen, A., Jin, Y., Cui, Y., Xu, Y., Lu, X. H., Liu, Y., & Fan, Q. (2024) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120830 · Cited by 9
Tropospheric ozone as an atmospheric pollutant and short-lived climate forcer in the Third Pole
Sharma, B. R., Kuttippurath, J., & Gopikrishnan, G. P. (2025) · Chemosphere · doi:10.1016/j.chemosphere.2025.144474 · Cited by 9
Analysis of the Impact of the 2019–20 Australian Bushfire Season on the Atmospheric Environment
Zhang, J., Sheng, Z., He, Y., Zuo, X., Jin, B., & He, M. (2021) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2021.566891 · Cited by 9
“It has been shown that ozone depletion (accumulation) can lead to cooling (heating) of the stratosphere since ozone absorbs solar radiation in the UV and visible parts of the spectrum (Lacis et al., 1990; de et al., 1997; Stevenson et al., 1998).”
Background
A Monte Carlo study of upper tropospheric reactive nitrogen during the Pacific Exploratory Mission in the Western Pacific Ocean (PEM‐West B)
Thompson, A. M., SINGH, H. B., Stewart, R. W., et al. (1997) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/97jd02555 · Cited by 8
Impact of Increased Methane Emissions on the Atmospheric Composition and Related Radiative Forcing on the Climate System
Hauglustaine, D. A., Granier, C., & Brasseur, G. P. (1994) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-011-0982-6_29 · Cited by 8
Error analysis of Raman differential absorption lidar ozone measurements in ice clouds
Reichardt, J. (2000) · Applied Optics · doi:10.1364/ao.39.006058 · Cited by 8
Evaluation of O 3 , H 2 O, CO, and NO y climatologies simulated by four global models in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere with IAGOS measurements
Cohen, Y., Hauglustaine, D. A., Bellouin, N., Lund, M. T., Matthes, S., Skowron, A., Thor, R., Bundke, U., Petzold, A., Rohs, S., et al. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-5793-2025 · Cited by 7
Tropical tropospheric ozone trends (1998 to 2023): new perspectives from SHADOZ, IAGOS and OMI/MLS observations
Thompson, A. M., Stauffer, R. M., Kollonige, D. E., Ziemke, J. R., Johnson, B. J. J., Morris, G. A., Cullis, P., Cazorla, M. D. C., Diaz, J. A., Piters, A. J. M., et al. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-18475-2025 · Cited by 7
The pattern of climate change around the Windward Passage
Jury, M. R. (2018) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2658-3 · Cited by 7
The Greenhouse Effect and Stratospheric Change
Shine, K. P. (1993) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-78306-7_13 · Cited by 7
The greenhouse effect of trace gases
Wang, W., Dudek, M. P., & Liang, X.-Z. (1995) · World survey of climatology · doi:10.1016/s0168-6321(06)80032-5 · Cited by 7
Climate Change and its Effect on Tropospheric Ozone
Atherton, C. S., Penner, J. E., Price, C. G., et al. (1995) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-79869-6_5 · Cited by 7
Subsonic aircraft and ozone trends
Jones, A. E., Law, K. S., & Pyle, J. A. (1996) · Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry · doi:10.1007/bf00058706 · Cited by 7
“Introduction Surface temperature changes through greenhouse forcing have been shown to depend critically on changes in ozone (03) in the tropopause region (- 12 km in mid-latitudes) (Lacis et al., 1990; Schwarzkopf and Ramaswamey, 1993).”
Background
Assessing Metrics of Climate Change. Current Methods and Future Possibilities.
Fuglestvedt, J. S., Berntsen, T. K., Godal, O., SAUSEN, R., Shine, K. P., & Skodvin, T. (2001) · elib (German Aerospace Center) · Cited by 7

Authors: Lacis, A. A., Wuebbles, D. J., & Logan, J. A.
Affiliations: Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
National Center for Supercomputing Applications (BG)
Harvard University (US)
ORCID: Lacis, Andrew A.
Wuebbles, Donald J.
Venue: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 1990-06-20
Volume: 95
Issue: D7
Pages: 9971-9981
ISSN: 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1029/jd095id07p09971
OpenAlex: W2057192297
Cited by: 556
References: 51
Citations by year: 2026: 9 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 33 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 17 · 2012: 16
FWCI: 10.31
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 8129 d)
Locations: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Keywords: radiative forcing, vertical ozone distribution, surface temperature, stratospheric ozone depletion, radiative-convective equilibrium, surface cooling, northern mid-latitudes, ozone trends

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Radiative forcing of climate by changes in the vertical distribution of ozone

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