Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming

Davis, Andrew J., Jenkinson, Linda S., Lawton, John H., Shorrocks, Bryan, Wood, Simon·1998·Nature

DOI 10.1038/35842

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/35842

Cites

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful
Pearson, R. G., & Dawson, T. P. (2003) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1046/j.1466-822x.2003.00042.x · Cited by 4,252
Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude
Deutsch, C. A., Tewksbury, J. J., Huey, R. B., Sheldon, K. S., Ghalambor, C. K., Haak, D. C., & Martin, P. R. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0709472105 · Cited by 3,840
Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores
Bale, J. S., Masters, G. J., Hodkinson, I. D., Awmack, C., Bezemer, T. M., Brown, V. K., Butterfield, J., Buse, A., Coulson, J. C., Farrar, J., et al. (2002) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00451.x · Cited by 2,775
“Furthermore, laboratory manipulation experiments have shown that, even with simple three-species assemblages, the presence of other species can shift the occupied temperature range from the single species preferendum (Davis et al. 1998).”
BackgroundInfluential
The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems
Harley, C. D. G., Randall Hughes, A., Hultgren, K. M., Miner, B. G., Sorte, C. J. B., Thornber, C. S., Rodriguez, L. F., Tomanek, L., & Williams, S. L. (2006) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00871.x · Cited by 2,700
The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling
Wisz, M. S., Pottier, J., Kissling, W. D., Pellissier, L., Lenoir, J., Damgaard, C. F., Dormann, C. F., Forchhammer, M. C., Grytnes, J., Guisan, A., et al. (2013) · Biological Reviews · doi:10.1111/j.1469-185x.2012.00235.x · Cited by 1,769
Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios
Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D. (2009) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x · Cited by 1,626
“Thirdly, distribution shifts may be influenced by synergistic effects between species or anthropogenic factors that were not captured in our model (e.g. fishing) (Davis et al. 1998; Harley et al. 2006; Hsieh et al. 2008).”
Background
Large‐scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change
CHEUNG, W. W. L., LAM, V. W. Y., SARMIENTO, J. L., KEARNEY, K., WATSON, R., ZELLER, D., & PAULY, D. (2010) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x · Cited by 1,226
Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions
Stachowicz, J. J., Terwin, J. R., Whitlatch, R. B., & Osman, R. W. (2002) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.242437499 · Cited by 863
Environmental warming alters food-web structure and ecosystem function
Petchey, O. L., McPhearson, P. T., Casey, T. M., & Morin, P. J. (1999) · Nature · doi:10.1038/47023 · Cited by 825
On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change
Urban, M. C., Tewksbury, J. J., & Sheldon, K. S. (2012) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2011.2367 · Cited by 473
Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles
Graham, C. T., & Harrod, C. (2009) · Journal of Fish Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1095-8649.2009.02180.x · Cited by 247
Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe’s forests
Seidl, R., Klonner, G., Rammer, W., Essl, F., Moreno, A., Neumann, M., & Dullinger, S. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04096-w · Cited by 153
A proximate model for thermal tolerance in ectotherms
Van Der Have, T. M. (2002) · Oikos · doi:10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.980115.x · Cited by 110
Inferring species interaction networks from species abundance data: A comparative evaluation of various statistical and machine learning methods
Faisal, A., Dondelinger, F., Husmeier, D., & Beale, C. M. (2010) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2010.06.005 · Cited by 61
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation
Mod, H. K., & Luoto, M. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 · Cited by 47

Authors: Davis, A. J., Jenkinson, L. S., Lawton, J. H., Shorrocks, B., & Wood, S.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 1998-02
Volume: 391
Issue: 6669
Pages: 783-786
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/35842
OpenAlex: W1519918296
Cited by: 1,178
References: 0
FWCI: 30.00
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review