On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change
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Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called ‘no-analogue’ communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences.
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Altitudinal shifts can cause rapid changes in community structure, disrupting coevolved interactions, creating "no-analogue communities," and contributing to community disassembly via accelerated extinctions.
“However, altitudinal shifts can also cause rapid changes in community structure, disrupting coevolved interactions, creating “no-analogue communities,” and contributing to community disassembly via accelerated extinctions (120, 121).”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [121]
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Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web
Lister, B. C., & Garcia, A. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1722477115 · Cited by 730 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Urban, M. C., Tewksbury, J. J., & Sheldon, K. S.
- Affiliations
- University of Connecticut (US)
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, 24 Kincaid Hall, PO Box 351800, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Urban, Mark C.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2012-01-04
- Volume
- 279
- Issue
- 1735
- Pages
- 2072-2080
- ISSN
- 0080-4649 (ISSN-L)
- 0962-8452
- 1471-2954
- PMC
- PMC3311897
- OpenAlex
- W2124975988
- Cited by
- 473
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 28 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 42 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 37 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 44 · 2013: 47 · 2012: 20
- FWCI
- 42.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Evolutionary Synthesis Center
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- climate change, interspecific competition, dispersibility, species extinction, niche breadth, community diversity, climate tracking, species interactions
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Competitive Behavior, Computer Simulation, Models, Biological, Population Dynamics, Temperature, Extinction, Biological, Climate Change
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