Large‐scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change
Open accessAbstract
Previous projection of climate change impacts on global food supply focuses solely on production from terrestrial biomes, ignoring the large contribution of animal protein from marine capture fisheries. Here, we project changes in global catch potential for 1066 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates from 2005 to 2055 under climate change scenarios. We show that climate change may lead to large-scale redistribution of global catch potential, with an average of 30-70% increase in high-latitude regions and a drop of up to 40% in the tropics. Moreover, maximum catch potential declines considerably in the southward margins of semienclosed seas while it increases in poleward tips of continental shelf margins. Such changes are most apparent in the Pacific Ocean. Among the 20 most important fishing Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) regions in terms of their total landings, EEZ regions with the highest increase in catch potential by 2055 include Norway, Greenland, the United States (Alaska) and Russia (Asia). On the contrary, EEZ regions with the biggest loss in maximum catch potential include Indonesia, the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii), Chile and China. Many highly impacted regions, particularly those in the tropics, are socioeconomically vulnerable to these changes. Thus, our results indicate the need to develop adaptation policy that could minimize climate change impacts through fisheries. The study also provides information that may be useful to evaluate fi…
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The effects of climate change operating through habitat or food web variation is thought to be already significant for many species of commercially valuable fish and wildlife.
“Indeed, the effects of climate change operating through habitat or food web variation is thought to be already significant for many species of commercially valuable fish and wildlife [29][30][31][32][33].”
From Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems (2015) · cites this paper as [31]
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- Authors
- CHEUNG, W. W. L., LAM, V. W. Y., SARMIENTO, J. L., KEARNEY, K., WATSON, R., ZELLER, D., & PAULY, D.
- Affiliations
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- CHEUNG, WILLIAM W. L.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-12-02
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 24-35
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2153905523
- Cited by
- 1,226
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 48 · 2025: 60 · 2024: 67 · 2023: 105 · 2022: 89 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 110 · 2019: 94 · 2018: 80 · 2017: 86 · 2016: 84 · 2015: 68 · 2014: 63 · 2013: 67 · 2012: 56
- FWCI
- 31.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Pew Charitable Trusts
- University of British Columbia
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Keywords
- climate change impacts on fisheries, marine capture fisheries, global food security, continental shelf margin, Pacific Ocean, exclusive economic zone, animal protein supply
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