The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale
Open accessAbstract
Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.
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Recent estimates of global premature mortality due to ambient ozone range widely, from ca 140,000 to 1,330,000 per year, with the Global Burden of Disease estimate being 254,000.
“Recent estimates of the global premature mortality due to ambient ozone range widely, from ca 140,000 [70] to 1,330,000 [71] per year, with the Global Burden of Disease estimate being 254,000 [72].”
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- Authors
- Lelieveld, J., Evans, J. S., Fnais, M., Giannadaki, D., & Pozzer, A.
- Affiliations
- Cyprus Institute (CY)
- Harvard University (US)
- King Saud University (SA)
- Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Lelieveld, J.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2015-09
- Volume
- 525
- Issue
- 7569
- Pages
- 367-371
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2141970008
- Cited by
- 5,977
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 434 · 2025: 497 · 2024: 614 · 2023: 643 · 2022: 717 · 2021: 841 · 2020: 723 · 2019: 529 · 2018: 417 · 2017: 331 · 2016: 201 · 2015: 19 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 202.40
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- cc-by-nc-nd
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Ktisis at Cyprus University of Technology (Cyprus University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Ktisis at Cyprus University of Technology (Cyprus University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › COVID-19 impact on air quality
- Keywords
- outdoor air pollution, premature mortality, PM2.5, emission source contributions, vehicle emissions, power plant emissions, agricultural emissions, ozone, particle toxicity, global burden of disease, health impact assessment, urban and rural air quality, carbonaceous aerosols, eastern United States, Europe, Russia
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Agriculture, Air Pollutants, Air Pollution, Atmosphere, Vehicle Emissions, Child, Preschool, China, Cooking, Environmental Exposure, Environmental Monitoring, Europe, Asia, Eastern, Fires, Heating, Humans, India, Infant, Middle Aged, Ozone, Power Plants, Rural Health, Russia, United States, Urban Health, Biomass, Internationality, Particulate Matter, Mortality, Premature
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