Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance
Open accessAbstract
Successful delivery of the United Nations sustainable development goals and implementation of the Paris Agreement requires technologies that utilize a wide range of minerals in vast quantities. Metal recycling and technological change will contribute to sustaining supply, but mining must continue and grow for the foreseeable future to ensure that such minerals remain available to industry. New links are needed between existing institutional frameworks to oversee responsible sourcing of minerals, trajectories for mineral exploration, environmental practices, and consumer awareness of the effects of consumption. Here we present, through analysis of a comprehensive set of data and demand forecasts, an interdisciplinary perspective on how best to ensure ecologically viable continuity of global mineral supply over the coming decades.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
While materials from battery recycling are expected to reduce environmental damage, raw material extraction will need to provide the lion's share of battery materials in the foreseeable future.
“While materials from battery recycling are expected to reduce environmental damage, raw material extraction will need to provide the lion’s share of battery materials in the foreseeable future41–47.”
From Carbon footprint distributions of lithium-ion batteries and their materials (2024) · cites this paper as [44]
Extraction of these materials generates extensive ecological externalities, including toxic waste and riverine contamination.
“Their extraction generates extensive ecological externalities, including toxic waste and riverine contamination (Ali etal. 2017; Wübbeke 2013).”
From The ecology of artificial intelligence: energy, water, materials, and land limits of digital systems (2025) · cites this paper as Ali et al. 2017
Advanced processors and memory chips require refined silicon, copper, cobalt, tantalum, and rare-earth elements such as neodymium and terbium.
“Advanced processors and memory chips require refined silicon, copper, cobalt, tantalum, and rare-earth elements such as neodymium and terbium.”
From The ecology of artificial intelligence: energy, water, materials, and land limits of digital systems (2025) · cites this paper as Ali et al. 2017
The mining and processing of materials for AI hardware often occur in ecologically sensitive areas, such as China, Africa, and South America, resulting in deforestation, soil contamination, and riverine pollution.
“The mining and processing of these materials often occur in ecologically sensitive areas, such as China, Africa, and South America, resulting in deforestation, soil contamination, and riverine pollution.”
From The ecology of artificial intelligence: energy, water, materials, and land limits of digital systems (2025) · cites this paper as Ali et al. 2017
High-value informational outputs are generated in the global North, while many of the ecological and material costs are absorbed by resource-intensive industrial nodes in Asia and the Middle East.
“Highvalue informational outputs are generated in the global North, while many of the ecological and material costs are absorbed by resource-intensive industrial nodes in Asia and the Middle East (Ali etal. 2017; UNEP 2020).”
From The ecology of artificial intelligence: energy, water, materials, and land limits of digital systems (2025) · cites this paper as Ali et al. 2017
Semiconductor manufacturing depends on high-purity silicon, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements such as neodymium and terbium.
“Semiconductor manufacturing depends on high-purity silicon, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements such as neodymium and terbium (Ali et al. 2017; Wübbeke 2013).”
From The ecology of artificial intelligence: energy, water, materials, and land limits of digital systems (2025) · cites this paper as Ali et al. 2017
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Towards greener and more sustainable batteries for electrical energy storage
Larcher, D., & Tarascon, J. (2014) · Nature Chemistry · doi:10.1038/nchem.2085 · Cited by 7,889 · see citing works
Evaluating Rare Earth Element Availability: A Case with Revolutionary Demand from Clean Technologies
Alonso, E., Sherman, A. M., Wallington, T. J., Everson, M. P., Field, F. R., Roth, R., & Kirchain, R. E. (2012) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es203518d · Cited by 1,033 · see citing works
Criticality of metals and metalloids
Graedel, T. E., Harper, E. M., Nassar, N. T., Nuss, P., & Reck, B. K. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1500415112 · Cited by 770 · see citing works
Interrogating the circular economy: The moral economy of resource recovery in the EU
Gregson, N., Crang, M., Fuller, S., & Holmes, H. (2015) · Economy and Society · doi:10.1080/03085147.2015.1013353 · Cited by 743 · see citing works
Conflict translates environmental and social risk into business costs
Franks, D. M., Davis, R., Bebbington, A., Ali, S. H., Kemp, D., & Scurrah, M. J. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1405135111 · Cited by 509 · see citing works
Self-citationOn the materials basis of modern society
Graedel, T. E., Harper, E. M., Nassar, N. T., & Reck, B. K. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1312752110 · Cited by 495 · see citing works
Copper demand, supply, and associated energy use to 2050
Elshkaki, A., Graedel, T. E., Ciacci, L., & Reck, B. K. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.006 · Cited by 481 · see citing works
Metals for a low-carbon society
Vidal, O., Goffé, B., & Arndt, N. (2013) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1993 · Cited by 430 · see citing works
Self-citationCrawford, I. A. (2015) · Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment · doi:10.1177/0309133314567585 · Cited by 348 · see citing works
Stock dynamics and emission pathways of the global aluminium cycle
Liu, G., Bangs, C. E., & Müller, D. B. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1698 · Cited by 307 · see citing works
Climate and energy challenges for materials science
Gielen, D. J., Boshell, F., & Saygin, D. (2016) · Nature Materials · doi:10.1038/nmat4545 · Cited by 299 · see citing works
Raw material criticality in the context of classical risk assessment
Glöser‐Chahoud, S., Espinoza, L. A. T., Gandenberger, C., et al. (2015) · Resources Policy · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2014.12.003 · Cited by 215 · see citing works
Moss, R. L. B., Tzimas, E., Kara, K., et al. (2011) · Joint Research Centre (European Commission) · doi:10.2790/35600 · Cited by 214 · see citing works
Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future
Meinert, L. D., Robinson, G. R., & Nassar, N. T. (2016) · Resources · doi:10.3390/resources5010014 · Cited by 165 · see citing works
Self-citationEarth's copper resources estimated from tectonic diffusion of porphyry copper deposits
Kesler, S. E., & Wilkinson, B. H. (2008) · Geology · doi:10.1130/g24317a.1 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Bringezu, S., Potočnik, J., Schandl, H., et al. (2016) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su8080778 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Stock dynamics and emission pathways of the global aluminum cycle
Müller, D. B., Liu, G., & Bangs, C. E. (2013) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-48763-2_19 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Susskind, L. E., Ali, S. H., & Hamid, Z. A. (2014) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199397976.001.0001 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Self-citationAssessing the supply potential of high-tech metals – A general method
Frenzel, M., Tolosana‐Delgado, R., & Gutzmer, J. (2015) · Resources Policy · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2015.08.002 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Henckens, M. L. C. M., Driessen, P., Ryngaert, C., & Worrell, E. (2016) · Resources Policy · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.04.010 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Tracking Effective Measures for Closed-Loop Recycling of Automobile Steel in China
Hatayama, H., Daigo, I., & Tahara, K. (2014) · Resources, Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.03.006 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Briefing: Minerals security of supply: a geological perspective
Gunn, G., & Bloodworth, A. J. (2012) · Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Waste and Resource Management · doi:10.1680/warm.12.00018 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Angrick, M., Burger, A., & Lehmann, H. (2013) · Eco-efficiency in industry and science · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5712-7 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Jeffries, E. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2504 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Analytical fingerprint for tantalum ores from African deposits
Melcher, F., Graupner, T., Sitnikova, M., et al. (2009) · EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 7
- 3 UNFCCC. Adoption of the Paris Agreement by the President: Paris Climate Change Conference . (United Nations 2015). http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf [accessed, August, 2016].
- 20 Rio Tinto Corporation. Global Exploration Spend and Historic Discovery Rate . (Slide 5 of Presentation at Citigroup Investment Conference, 2016). Available online: http://www.riotinto.com/documents/160627\_Presentation\_Citigroup\_exploration\_conference\_Stephen \_McIntosh.pdf [Accessed, November, 2016].
- 26 Angrick, M., Burger, A., Lehmann, H. Eds. Factor X, Eco-Efficiency in Industry and Science. (Springer, 2013)
- 28 Graedel, T. et al. What Do We Know About Metal Recycling Rates? Journal of Industrial Ecology 15 , 355-366 (2011).
- 38 Wilts, H., Bleischwitz, R., An International Metal Covenant: A Step Towards Global Sustainable Resource Management, in: Angrick, M., Burger, A., Lehmann, H. (Eds.), Factor X, Eco-Efficiency in Industry and Science. (Springer, 2013).
- 43 Franken, G., Vasters , J., Dorner , U., Melcher, F., Sitnikova, M. , and Goldmann, S. Certified Supply Chains in Mineral Production. In R. Sinding-Larsen and F.-W. Wellmer (eds.), NonRenewable Resource Issues: Geoscientific and Societal Challenges. (Springer, 2012).
- 46 Roth, S.E., Developing a Law of Asteroids: Constants, Variables, and Alternatives. Columbia Journal of Transnational Law, 54 , 827-872(2015).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Connecting the sustainable development goals by their energy inter-linkages
McCollum, D. L., Echeverri, L. G., Busch, S., Pachauri, S., Parkinson, S., Rogelj, J., Krey, V., Minx, J. C., Nilsson, M., Stevance, A.-S., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaafe3 · Cited by 448 · see citing works
Watari, T., McLellan, B. C., Giurco, D., Dominish, E., Yamasue, E., & Nansai, K. (2019) · Resources, Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.05.015 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Self-citationElectrification of light-duty vehicle fleet alone will not meet mitigation targets
Milovanoff, A., Posen, I. D., & MacLean, H. L. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00921-7 · Cited by 251 · see citing works
The mineral foundation of the energy transition
Bazilian, M. D. (2018) · The Extractive Industries and Society · doi:10.1016/j.exis.2017.12.002 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Carbon footprint distributions of lithium-ion batteries and their materials
Peiseler, L., Schenker, V., Schatzmann, K., Pfister, S., Wood, V., & Schmidt, T. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-54634-y · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Forget, M., & Bos, V. (2022) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2021.102477 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Anwar, M., Khattak, M. S., Popp, J., Meyer, D. F., & Máté, D. (2020) · Technological and Economic Development of Economy · doi:10.3846/tede.2020.13404 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Roche, L., Arendt, R., Bach, V., & Finkbeiner, M. (2023) · The Extractive Industries and Society · doi:10.1016/j.exis.2023.101213 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
The ecology of artificial intelligence: energy, water, materials, and land limits of digital systems
Hlabisa, S. (2025) · Carbon Neutral Systems · doi:10.1007/s44438-025-00018-8 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“Their extraction generates extensive ecological exter-nalities, including toxic waste and riverine contamination (Ali et al. 2017; Wübbeke 2013).”
- Authors
- Ali, S. H., Giurco, D., Arndt, N., Nickless, E., Brown, G., Demetriades, A., Durrheim, R., Enriquez, M. A., Kinnaird, J., Littleboy, A., Meinert, L. D., Oberhänsli, R., Salem, J., Schodde, R., Schneider, G., Vidal, O., & Yakovleva, N.
- Affiliations
- University of Vermont (US)
- University of Technology Sydney (AU)
- Institut des Sciences de la Terre (FR)
- Geological Society of London (GB)
- University of the Witwatersrand (ZA)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- United States Geological Survey (US)
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- The University of Western Australia (AU)
- Newcastle University (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Ali, Saleem H.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2017-03-16
- Volume
- 543
- Issue
- 7645
- Pages
- 367-372
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2596949131
- Cited by
- 803
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 115 · 2025: 105 · 2024: 88 · 2023: 90 · 2022: 85 · 2021: 83 · 2020: 71 · 2019: 91 · 2018: 53 · 2017: 22
- FWCI
- 60.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2017-06-28)
- Open access
- green
- insu.hal.science
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- publish.UP (University of Potsdam) (submittedVersion)
- UTS ePRESS (University of Technology Sydney) (submittedVersion)
- Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Mining and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanical Engineering › Extraction and Separation Processes
- Social Sciences › Law › Geology and Environmental Impact Studies
- Keywords
- mineral supply, natural resource governance, Sustainable Development Goals, Paris Agreement, mineral exploration, metal recycling, technological change, mining, consumer awareness, environmental practices, institutional framework, climate targets
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review