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Cited by 131Environmental Impact and SustainabilityExtraction and Separation ProcessesPhotovoltaic Systems and Sustainability

Carbon footprint distributions of lithium-ion batteries and their materials

Open access
Peiseler, Leopold, Schenker, Vanessa, Schatzmann, Karin, Pfister, Stephan, Wood, Vanessa, Schmidt, Tobias·2024·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-54634-yPMC PMC11603021

Published version of a preprint

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Abstract

Lithium-ion batteries are pivotal in climate change mitigation. While their own carbon footprint raises concerns, existing studies are scattered, hard to compare and largely overlook the relevance of battery materials. Here, we go beyond traditional carbon footprint analysis and develop a cost-based approach, estimating emission curves for battery materials lithium, nickel and cobalt, based on mining cost data. Combining the emission curves with regionalised battery production announcements, we present carbon footprint distributions (5 th , 50 th , and 95 th percentiles) for lithium-ion batteries with nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC811, 8-1-1 ratio; 59, 74 and 115 kg CO2 kWh −1 ) and lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP; 54, 62, 69 kg CO2 kWh −1 ) cathodes. Our findings reveal the dominating impact of material sourcing over production location, with nickel and lithium identified as major contributors to the carbon footprint and its variance. This research moves the field forward by offering a nuanced understanding of battery carbon footprints, aiding in the design of decarbonisation policies and strategies.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This paper develops cost-based emission curves for lithium, nickel, and cobalt and combines them with regionalised battery production announcements to estimate global carbon footprint distributions for NMC811 and LFP lithium-ion batteries. It finds that material sourcing, especially nickel and lithium, dominates battery carbon footprints and their variance more than cell production location.

Key findings

  • Global 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile carbon footprints were 59, 74, and 115 kgCO2e kWh−1 for NMC811 cells, and 54, 62, and 69 kgCO2e kWh−1 for LFP cells. LFP median CFs were ~16% lower than NMC including laterite mining.
  • Material sourcing dominated production location: regional CF profiles were similar, and around the NMC global median, active materials made up over 50% of CF, electricity during cell production around 15%, copper 7%, and aluminium 5%. NMC CF variance was predominantly driven by nickel sulfate; LFP variance was driven most by lithium carbonate.
  • Lithium emission curves showed a low-CF South American brine plateau and an Australian spodumene plateau about three times higher. Nickel showed three plateaus: sulfide, limonite, and saprolite, with limonite and saprolite at about 2 and 7 times the average of the left sulfide plateau. Cobalt’s four largest mines, all in the DRC, comprised 90% of the covered supply chain.
  • Break-even mileages for mid-sized SUV EVs with NMC batteries were around 50,000 km for 5th-percentile and 80,000 km for 95th-percentile batteries in France, delaying break-even by ~25,000 km; in Poland the delay exceeded 70,000 km.

Methods

  • Bottom-up emission curves for lithium, nickel, and cobalt were built from 2022 mine-level cost data from S&P Global, converting costs to emissions using asset-specific dollar emission intensities; graphite and nickel laterite were estimated top-down from literature, reports, and databases.
  • Material Monte Carlo simulations used n = 5000; battery Monte Carlo simulations used n = 11,308, aligned with announced 2030 nameplate battery production capacity, using Brightway2 with ecoinvent 3.9.1 bills of material for NMC811 and LFP cells and regionalised production capacity data.
  • Emission curves were converted to production-volume-weighted probability density functions, sampled with electricity grid locations, and used to derive global and regional CF distributions and variance contributions; 17 semi-structured expert interviews triangulated assumptions and findings.

Limitations

  • The paper states that direct NMC versus LFP comparison should be approached with caution because calculations were first made on a mass basis before conversion to capacity basis, and future innovation rates at cell, module, and pack levels will affect comparisons. It also states the break-even mileage calculation is simplified and does not account for many other parameters influencing real-world lifetime CO2 emissions.
  • The paper states data availability and access remain critical challenges; graphite and nickel laterite lacked usable S&P Global asset-level data and were estimated top-down. It also assumes no regional material preferences among battery producers and a constant bill of materials, varying only four material CFs and electricity.
  • Evident from the text: the emission curves rely on proprietary S&P Global cost data, imputation for nickel laterite, and literature-based refining ranges, so site-specific coverage and cost-to-emissions proxies may not capture all real-world variation.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41467-024-54634-y

Cites

42 of 42 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 60 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    A small number of sulfide deposit mines exhibited higher carbon footprint than limonite deposit mines.

    “although a small number of sulfide deposit mines exhibited higher CF than limonite deposit mines (bars between the centre and rightmost plateaus).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The actual median carbon footprint at around 350 kt of lithium carbonate is about three times higher than the median literature and database carbon footprint.

    “However, looking at the global production locations in 2022, it becomes evident that the actual median CF at around 350 kt of lithium carbonate is about three times higher.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Existing literature and database values are generally in line with the modelled carbon footprint of sulfide nickel mining.

    “The existing literature and database values were generally in line with the modelled CF of sulfide nickel mining (cf. Supplementary Fig. 4).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The emission curve for lithium carbonate has two primary plateaus.

    “The emission curve for lithium carbonate depicted in Fig. 1a reveals two primary plateaus:”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    A large share of the covered lithium supply chain comprises only a handful of mines with high output volumes.

    “A large share of the covered supply chain (x axis in Fig. 1a) comprises only a handful of mines with high output volumes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 49
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 37

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    While carbon footprints for brine sites exhibit a wide range, all spodumene sites fall within the higher carbon footprint plateau.

    “while the CFs for brine sites exhibit a wide range, spanning from the lowest to the highest values, all spodumene sites—identifiable by grey bar segments in Fig. 1a—fall within the higher CF plateau.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The second lithium carbonate plateau is approximately three times higher in carbon footprint and is mainly composed of Australian hard rock (spodumene) deposits.

    “and the second, approximately three times higher in CF, is mainly composed of Australian hard rock (spodumene) deposits.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The centre and rightmost nickel plateaus correspond to limonite and saprolite laterite ore types and comprise around 54% and 6% of the covered supply chain, respectively.

    “The centre and rightmost plateaus corresponded to two different laterite ore types: limonite and saprolite. They comprised around 54% and 6%, respectively, of the covered supply chain (Fig. 1d’s x axis).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The first lithium carbonate plateau is characterised by low carbon footprint levels and is predominantly sourced from South American brine operations.

    “the first, characterised by low CF levels, is predominantly sourced from South American brine operations,”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The leftmost nickel plateau accounts for approximately 40% of the covered supply chain and all mines within it extract sulfide ore.

    “The leftmost plateau, accounting for approximately 40% of the covered supply chain, was analysed using the same methodology applied to lithium in Fig. 1a. All mines within this plateau were extracting sulfide ore”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The carbon footprints in the leftmost nickel plateau exhibit a hockey-stick curve pattern, with Russia holding the largest market share at the lower carbon footprint levels.

    “The CFs in this segment exhibited a hockey-stick curve pattern, with Russia holding the largest market share at the lower CF levels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The carbon footprint levels of the second and third nickel plateaus are respectively 2 and 7 times the average of the left plateau.

    “The CF levels of the second and third plateaus were, respectively, 2 and 7 times the average of the left plateau,”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Given the nickel-free cathode, the LFP carbon footprint distribution was smaller and more symmetrical than the NMC811 distribution.

    “and, given the nickel-free cathode, was smaller and more symmetrical than in Fig. 2a.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Graphite's supply chain is dominated by China, where synthetic graphite production accounts for around two-thirds, with slightly higher carbon footprint and higher carbon footprint ranges than natural graphite.

    “Graphite’s supply chain is dominated by China, where synthetic graphite production accounts for around two-thirds, with slightly higher CF and higher CF ranges than natural graphite.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For NMC811 cells, the global carbon footprint distribution was bi-modal and characterised by a wide 90% confidence interval, with global carbon footprint values ranging from 59 to 115 kgCO2e kWh−1.

    “For NMC811 cells, whose cathode metal shares comprise 80% nickel, 10% manganese and 10% cobalt, the global CF distribution was bi-modal and characterised by a wide 90% confidence interval, with global CF values ranging from 59 to 115 kgCO2e kWh−1 (Fig. 2a).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For LFP cells, lithium carbonate and graphite were the largest contributors to carbon footprint distribution, and non-battery-specific materials gained relative shares compared to LIBs with NMC cathodes.

    “Concerning CF distribution, lithium carbonate and graphite were the largest contributors; non-battery-specific materials gained relative shares compared to LIBs with NMC cathodes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The cobalt emission curve follows a step-like function, where the four largest mines are all located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and comprise 90% of the covered supply chain.

    “The emission curve for cobalt shown in Fig. 1g follows a step-like function, where the four largest mines are all located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and comprise 90% of the covered supply chain.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Cobalt from stratiform sediment-hosted deposits accounts for the overwhelming majority of the supply chain, while by-product cobalt from laterite and sulfide nickel ore deposits plays a minor role.

    “Cobalt from SSH deposits accounts for the overwhelming majority of the supply chain (Fig. 1i) while by-product cobalt from laterite and sulfide nickel ore deposits plays a minor role.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Sites in the DRC mine copper in exclusively stratiform sediment-hosted deposits and produce cobalt as a sellable by-product.

    “Sites in the DRC mine copper in exclusively stratiform sediment-hosted (SSH) deposits and produce cobalt as a sellable by-product33.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [33] Dehaine, Q., Tijsseling, L. T., Glass, H. J., Törmänen, T. & Butcher, A. R. Geometallurgy of cobalt ores: a review. Miner. Eng. 160, 106656 (2021). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Collectively, active materials made up over 50% of the carbon footprint for NMC811, while electricity consumption during cell production accounted for around 15%.

    “Collectively, active materials made up over 50% of the CF, while contributions from electricity consumption during cell production accounted for around 15% (see Supplementary Table 4 for a detailed breakdown).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The density functions and dot distributions for NMC811 were similar across regions and revealed the subordinate role of battery production location for greenhouse gas emissions vis-à-vis material procurement choices.

    “Importantly, however, the density functions and dot distributions in Fig. 1a were similar across regions and revealed the subordinate role of battery production location for GHG emissions vis-à-vis material procurement choices.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the analysis without laterite mining, production location, nickel sulfate and lithium carbonate were the main drivers of carbon footprint variance, whereas cobalt sulfate and graphite played negligible roles.

    “Results from the analysis without laterite mining (Supplementary Fig. 7) identified production location, nickel sulfate and lithium carbonate as the main drivers, whereas cobalt sulfate and graphite played negligible roles.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    In Poland, the break-even mileage is delayed by over 70,000 km, arguably stalling the climate effectiveness of EVs for several years.

    “Conversely, in less favourable scenarios, such as in Poland, the break-even mileage is delayed by over 70,000 km, arguably stalling the climate effectiveness of EVs for several years.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    By 2022, Indonesia was the largest nickel mining country, followed by Russia, Canada and Chile.

    “By 2022, Indonesia (home to laterite ore deposits) established itself as the largest nickel mining country, followed by Russia, Canada and Chile (all home to sulfide ore deposits).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The left mode of the NMC811 global carbon footprint distribution was composed of all emission curves, while the second mode was driven by the rightmost nickel sulfate plateau.

    “The left mode was composed of all emission curves, while the second mode was driven by the rightmost nickel sulfate plateau (Fig. 1d).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    For LFP cells, the global carbon footprint distribution closely traced the Chinese distribution, as almost all LFP cell production is announced in China.

    “For LFP cells, whose cathodes mainly comprised lithium, iron and phosphate, the global CF distribution closely traced the Chinese distribution, as almost all LFP cell production is announced in China (Fig. 3a).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    While the data are less robust for nickel, the opposite trend is observable for cobalt and nickel.

    “While the data are less robust for nickel, the opposite trend is observable for cobalt and nickel, underpinning the complexity of the policy challenge and its (unintended) consequences.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    DEIs for electricity costs were typically only country-specific and not technology-specific, except for assets not connected to the national grid that produced electricity on-site.

    “As we used national figures for prices and electricity CF, note that DEIs for electricity costs were typically only country-specific and not technology-specific. The only exceptions to this were assets that were not connected to the national grid but produced electricity on-site.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    DEIs for cost categories were generally asset-specific, i.e., a function of an asset's locations and processing technologies.

    “Note that DEIc,a was generally asset-specific; that is, it was a function of an asset’s locations and processing technologies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Manganese and iron (sulfate) have negligible carbon footprint contributions.

    “Furthermore, manganese and iron (sulfate) have negligible CF contributions, as shown in Fig. 3b.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingreasoning

    By design, this methodology led to asymmetric margins of error.

    “By design, this methodology led to asymmetric margins of error, which can be seen in Fig. 1.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    S&P Global does not provide data for graphite and no usable asset-level data for nickel laterite mining.

    “S&P Global does not provide data for graphite and no usable asset-level data for nickel laterite mining.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The production of battery materials and subsequent LIB cell manufacturing contribute considerably to greenhouse gas emissions.

    “the production of battery materials4–7 and the subsequent LIB cell manufacturing8–10 contribute considerably to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 7 sources checked
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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Leading battery producers recently announced sharp carbon footprint reduction targets.

    “Accordingly, leading battery producers recently announced sharp CF reduction targets12,17.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
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  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Lithium-ion batteries are a key climate change mitigation technology because they electrify transport and enable the deep integration of renewables.

    “Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are a key climate change mitigation technology, given their role in electrifying the transport sector and enabling the deep integration of renewables1.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
      “Lithium-ion batteries are pivotal in climate change mitigation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
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      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The climate benefits of LIB-enabled products are evident.

    “The climate benefits of LIB-enabled products are evident2,3,”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The EU Battery Regulation came into force in 2023 and couples market access for EU and non-EU battery producers to battery carbon footprints starting in 2028.

    “For instance, in 2023, the hallmark European Union (EU) Battery Regulation came into force, coupling market access for EU and non-EU battery producers to battery CFs starting in 202811.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
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      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Policymakers have begun to implement measures to reduce the carbon footprint of LIBs.

    “Consequently, policymakers have begun to implement measures to reduce the carbon footprint (CF) of LIBs14.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The US Inflation Reduction Act incentivises localisation of battery material and cell manufacturing, which affects batteries' carbon footprints.

    “Furthermore, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentivises the localisation of battery material and cell manufacturing16,18, which in turn affects batteries’ CF.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
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      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The strong literature focus on NMC is problematic, considering LFP market share projections of over 35% by 2030.

    “In general, the strong literature focus on NMC is problematic, considering LFP market share projections of over 35% by 203025,26.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
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      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    The materials' impact and induced variance on battery carbon footprint have not yet been quantified.

    “While initial research has begun to aggregate the CF data points of individual battery materials into a battery-level analysis6,24, the materials’ impact and induced variance on battery CF have not yet been quantified.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [6] Kallitsis, E. et al. Think global act local: the dependency of global lithium-ion battery emissions on production location and material sources. J. Clean. Prod. 449, 141725 (2024). source

      Not checked in the free run.

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      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The comparability of LIB LCA studies is still markedly restricted, and interpreting them typically requires domain knowledge.

    “Thus, the comparability of LCA studies is still markedly restricted, and interpreting them typically requires domain knowledge.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The two observed nickel plateaus correspond to different deposit types, which entail fundamentally different process flowsheets.

    “The two observed plateaus corresponded to different deposit types, which, in turn, entailed fundamentally different process flowsheets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The simplified break-even calculation underscores the importance of the battery's carbon footprint but does not account for the multitude of other parameters that influence real-world lifetime CO2 emissions.

    “Notably, this simplified calculation underscores the importance of the battery’s CF but does not account for the multitude of other parameters36–38 that influence the real-world lifetime CO2 emissions of thermal and EVs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
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  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The direct comparison of NMC and LFP carbon footprints should be approached with caution because calculations were first made on a mass basis before being converted to a capacity basis, and varying innovation rates will affect future carbon footprint comparisons.

    “However, this direct comparison should be approached with caution, as calculations were first made on a mass basis before being converted to a capacity basis, as shown in Figs. 2 and 3. Although this study also provides CFs on a per-kilogram basis in Supplementary Figs. 5 and 6 and employs up-to-date cell energy densities for conversion35, the varying rates and directions of innovation at the cell”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
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  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Data availability and access continue to pose critical challenges.

    “Additionally, data availability and access continue to pose critical challenges22,23,54.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
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    While materials from battery recycling are expected to reduce environmental damage, raw material extraction will need to provide the lion's share of battery materials in the foreseeable future.

    “While materials from battery recycling are expected to reduce environmental damage, raw material extraction will need to provide the lion’s share of battery materials in the foreseeable future41–47.”
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      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [46] Baars, J., Domenech, T., Bleischwitz, R., Melin, H. E. & Heidrich, O. Circular economy strategies for electric vehicle batteries reduce reliance on raw materials. Nat. Sustain. 4, 71–79 (2021). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [47] Chen, Q. et al. Investigating carbon footprint and carbon reduction potential using a cradle-to-cradle LCA approach on lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles in China. J. Clean. Prod. 369, 133342 (2022). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationnone given

    The mere reordering of supply chains does not equate with actual decarbonisation progress.

    “the mere reordering of supply chains does not equate with actual decarbonisation progress.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    For all assets, relevant fields including geology, output product and processing steps were manually checked and harmonised by consulting S&P Global's modelling comments, online resources and expert interviews.

    “For all assets (i.e., mine sites), the relevant fields, including geology, output product and processing steps, were manually checked and harmonised by consulting S&P Global’s modelling comments, online resources and expert interviews.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The proposed EU Battery Regulation strikes a balance by providing default values that battery producers can replace with their own calculations, provided they meet specific quality standards.

    “The proposed EU Battery Regulation11,48 strikes a balance by providing default values that battery producers can replace with their own calculations, provided they meet specific quality standards.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [11] EU. REGULATION (EU) 2023/1542 of the european parliament and of the council of 12 july 2023 concerning batteries and waste batteries. (2023).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [48] JRC. JRC study in support of developing Carbon Footprint rules of batteries. https://eplca.jrc.ec.europa.eu/EU_BatteryRegulation_Art7.html (2023).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    If low-carbon-footprint batteries turned out to be cheaper, they would automatically be favoured by the market, converting green premiums into company profits and rendering any low-carbon-footprint policy support debatable.

    “If low-CF batteries indeed turned out to be cheaper, they would automatically be favoured by the market, converting green premiums into company profits and rendering any low-CF policy support debatable.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The proposed cost-based methodology does not rely on time-consuming data collection from mining and refining company reports and can be more easily scaled to additional commodities and panel datasets.

    “As this methodology does not rely on time-consuming data collection from mining and refining company reports, it can be more easily scaled to additional commodities and panel datasets.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Graphite and nickel laterite are known to drive the carbon footprint of batteries.

    “However, as both materials are known to drive the CF of batteries5,24,34, it was decided to include their emission ranges in the battery CF Monte Carlo simulation based on country-specific secondary literature.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [5] Dai, Q., Kelly, J. C., Gaines, L. & Wang, M. Life cycle analysis of lithium-ion batteries for automotive applications. Batter 5, 48 (2019). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [24] Llamas-Orozco, J. A. et al. Estimating the environmental impacts of global lithium-ion battery supply chain: a temporal, geographical, and technological perspective. PNAS Nexus 2, pgad361 (2023). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [34] Engels, P. et al. Life cycle assessment of natural graphite production for lithium-ion battery anodes based on industrial primary data. J. Clean. Prod. 336, 130474 (2022). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The carbon footprint of diesel combustion was calculated at a global level because regional differences were negligible for the purpose of this work.

    “Based on Annex 1 of IPCC59, the CF of diesel combustion was calculated at a global level, as regional differences were negligible for the purpose of this work”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites IPCC59

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The IPCC 100-year GWP impact category was used to determine the reagents' CFs from ecoinvent.

    “As usual, the IPCC 100-year GWP impact category was used to determine the reagents’ CFs from ecoinvent.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    Peer reviews for one of the reports were conducted by industry experts and are accessible at the end of the document.

    “It should be noted that peer reviews for one of the reports61 were conducted by industry experts and are accessible at the end of the document.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [61] VDA. Product carbon footprint of nickel sulfate hexahydrate production. https://www.vda.de/dam/jcr:e508b237-ecfc-49ed-b9f5-c52e2a9fa658/VDA_Nickel_Sulfate_Hexahydrate_LCA_Report_2023.pdf (2023).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    TC/RC were provided for all assets by S&P Global and can be understood as the asset-specific cost of turning the output product into a high-purity product.

    “TC/RC were provided for all assets by S&P Global and can be understood as the asset-specific cost of turning the output product into a high-purity product (e.g., refined metal).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites S&P Global

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    For lithium, S&P Global did not provide TC/RC, so for all assets the minimum and maximum literature values were used for the margin of error and the literature average for the most likely value.

    “For lithium, S&P Global did not provide TC/RC, which is why—for all assets—the minimum and maximum literature values were used for the margin of error and the literature average for the most likely value.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The emission ratio of reagent r was determined by matching reagent r with the ecoinvent 3.9.1 database and, where necessary, determining chemically similar proxies.

    “To determine this figure, we matched reagent r with the ecoinvent 3.9.1. database and, where necessary, determined chemically similar proxies.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites ecoinvent 3.9.1

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Both reagent quantity and price parameters were treated as global, but regional and temporal variations were considered in the Material Monte Carlo simulation.

    “Both parameters were treated as global, but regional and temporal variations were considered in the Material Monte Carlo simulation”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Given that TC/RC was not a perfect proxy for emissions, the reserved lower (upper) error for refining emissions of all assets was the difference between the most likely emission estimate and the lowest (highest) value of the emission range.

    “Given that TC/RC was not a perfect proxy for emissions, the reserved lower (upper) error for refining emissions of all assets was the difference between the most likely emission estimate and the lowest (highest) value of the emission range.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: TC/RC have some explanatory power about refining energy and thus emissions.
    • Rests on an assumption: Typically, the higher the concentration of undesirable elements, the higher the required process engineering and energy efforts and thus the higher the TC/RC.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    For all input parameters, uncertainty distributions were defined based on expert interviews, own simulations or multiple data sources.

    “For all input parameters, we defined uncertainty distributions based on expert interviews, our own simulations or multiple data sources.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The ecoinvent battery cell inventory built on Dai et al.60, who reported inventory data for anhydrous sulfate forms; therefore, this work reported quantities and CFs of sulfate compounds with respect to their anhydrous form.

    “As the ecoinvent battery cell inventory built on Dai et al.60, who, in turn, reported inventory data for anhydrous sulfate forms, in this work, we also reported the quantities and CFs of sulfate compounds with respect to their anhydrous form.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Dai et al.60 Dai, Q., Kelly, J. C., Dunn, J. & Benavides, P. T. Update of bill-of-materials and cathode materials production for lithium-ion batteries in the GREET model. https://greet.anl.gov/files/update_bom_cm (2018).

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    For every processing step in a flowsheet, the quantity of reagent r needed for processing one kg of ore was determined by consulting metallurgic literature and books; where necessary, it was corroborated by lab protocols and expert assessments.

    “For every processing step in a flowsheet, mr was determined by consulting metallurgic literature and books; where necessary, it was corroborated by lab protocols and expert assessments.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Since BNEF discloses production sites only at the country-level, we turned to the Supplementary Information of Kallitsis et al.6, who mapped the announced LIB production at the provincial (China) and state (US) levels through 2035.

    “Since BNEF discloses production sites only at the country-level, we turned to the Supplementary Information of Kallitsis et al.6, who mapped the announced LIB production at the provincial (China) and state (US) levels through 2035.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kallitsis et al.6 Kallitsis, E. et al. Think global act local: the dependency of global lithium-ion battery emissions on production location and material sources. J. Clean. Prod. 449, 141725 (2024). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    This additivity property was used in other work64 and mathematically backed in the Supplementary Methods.

    “This additivity property was used in other work64 and mathematically backed in the Supplementary Methods.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [64] Hsiang, S. et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science 356, 1362–1369 (2017). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    Studies that were pertinent but lacked transparency or represented poor current or near-future battery material production were labelled 'peripheral' and excluded from the analysis.

    “We labelled studies that were pertinent but, for example, lacked transparency or represented poor current or near-future battery material production as “peripheral” and excluded them from our analysis.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    An extensive structured literature review formed the basis for Fig. 1b, e, h.

    “An extensive structured literature review formed the basis for Fig. 1b, e, h.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    If necessary, additional region-specific MC runs were executed to ensure a sample size of at least n = 1000 for each regional probability density function.

    “If necessary, additional region-specific MC runs were executed to ensure a sample size of at least n = 1000 for each regional probability density function.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The energy densities for conversion are taken as scalars from recent work35 and are in line with the original work22 from 2021 that, in turn, builds the basis for the current Ecoinvent inventory (NMC: 0.25 kWh kg−1 and LFP: 0.16 kWh kg−1).

    “The energy densities for conversion are taken as scalars from recent work35 and are in line with the original work22 from 2021 that, in turn, builds the basis for the current Ecoinvent inventory (NMC: 0.25 kWh kg−1 and LFP: 0.16 kWh kg−1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [35] Schöberl, J., Ank, M., Schreiber, M., Wassiliadis, N. & Lienkamp, M. Thermal runaway propagation in automotive lithium-ion batteries with NMC-811 and LFP cathodes: safety requirements and impact on system integration. eTransportation 19, 100305 (2024). source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [22] Crenna, E., Gauch, M., Widmer, R., Wäger, P. & Hischier, R. Towards more flexibility and transparency in life cycle inventories for ithium-ion batteries. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 170, 105619 (2021). source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Over the course of this work, 17 expert interviews were conducted to iteratively develop and refine the research design, triangulate assumptions, and corroborate the findings and implications of this work.

    “Over the course of this work, 17 expert interviews were conducted to iteratively develop and refine the research design, triangulate assumptions, and corroborate the findings and implications of this work.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The information on regional chemistry prevalence was imputed with an expert interview that generally fell in line with the regional NMC:LFP shares derived from BNEF.

    “In the last step, we imputed the information on regional chemistry prevalence with an expert interview that generally fell in line with the regional NMC:LFP shares derived from BNEF.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    It was confirmed by the Secretary General of the ETH Zurich Ethics Commission that such interviews do not represent research involving the data of human participants.

    “It was confirmed by the Secretary General of the ETH Zurich Ethics Commission that such interviews do not represent research involving the data of human participants.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Since the purpose of the interview process was to elicit feedback on the research design and results, it did not involve personal data.

    “Since the purpose of the interview process was to elicit feedback on the research design and results, it did not involve personal data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
69 of 69

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Battery producers have no regional material preferences, so producers in different regions are equally likely to source materials from any region.

    “Given the opacity of the supply chain, we assumed no regional material preferences among battery producers.”
    “For example, we assumed that Chinese and German battery producers were equally likely to source Chilean lithium carbonate.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The study presumes fixed chemical compositions and manufacturing processes.

    “As this study presumed fixed chemical compositions and manufacturing processes, it captured only a fraction of the real-world variance.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Copper, aluminium, phosphate, manganese and iron (sulfate) are not LIB-specific and are used in much larger quantities in other sectors.

    “Copper, aluminium, phosphate, manganese and iron (sulfate) are not LIB-specific and are used in much larger quantities in other sectors.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is no representative global carbon footprint distribution for LIBs with nickel-based cathodes (NMC) and iron-based cathodes (LFP).

    “Third, while some studies have analysed the impact of individual battery cell production locations, there is no representative global CF distribution for LIB with nickel-based cathodes (NMC) and iron-based cathodes (LFP).”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    For assets with the same flowsheet, higher reagent costs did not imply other reagent compositions but larger reagent quantities.

    “It was assumed that for assets with the same flowsheet, higher reagent costs did not imply other reagent compositions but larger reagent quantities.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    TC/RC have some explanatory power about refining energy and thus emissions.

    “Since TC/RC have some explanatory power about refining energy and thus emissions, we based an asset’s most likely refining emissions on its relative TC/RC cost.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Small changes in the bill of materials would only slightly change this work's findings.

    “Close relatives to the selected cathodes, e.g., NMC955 (90% nickel and 5% each of manganese and cobalt) or lithium manganese iron phosphate, were not explicitly modelled, as small changes in the bill of materials would only slightly change this work’s findings.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A global commodity market exists where, e.g., Chinese battery producers are equally likely to source lithium carbonate from Chilean mines compared to Australian-mined and Chinese-processed lithium carbonate.

    “Firstly, we assume a global commodity market where, e.g., Chinese battery producers are equally likely to source lithium carbonate from Chilean mines compared to Australian-mined and Chinese-processed lithium carbonate.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    For the entire work, a constant BOM is used, i.e., all material and energy requirements are kept constant and only the CF of four materials and the electricity is varied.

    “Secondly, for our entire work, a constant BOM is used, i.e., all material and energy requirements are kept constant and only the CF of four materials and the electricity is varied.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Each parameter is stochastically independent, i.e., the procurement choice of one commodity has no impact on the choice of another commodity.

    “The variance quantification and disaggregation shown in Figs. 2c and 3c were based on the assumption that each parameter is stochastically independent, i.e., the procurement choice of one commodity has no impact on the choice of another commodity.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Typically, the higher the concentration of undesirable elements, the higher the required process engineering and energy efforts and thus the higher the TC/RC.

    “Typically, the higher the concentration of undesirable elements, the higher the required process engineering and energy efforts and thus the higher the TC/RC.”
11 of 11

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • This stands in contrast to LFP batteries as the relative variance contribution of LFP cells is dominated by Li2CO3 of 56% in contrast to only 5% of NMC811 cells.

    “This stands in contrast to LFP batteries as the relative variance contribution of LFP cells is dominated by Li2CO3 of 56% in contrast to only 5% of NMC811 cells.98”

    From Current and Future Impacts of Lithium Carbonate from Brines: A Global Regionalized Life Cycle Assessment Model (2025) · cites this paper as [98]

    The Results section (‘Monte Carlo simulations for LIB with NMC and LFP cathodes’; page unavailable) says lithium carbonate contributed the most, by far, to LFP variance, while nickel sulfate predominantly drove NMC811 variance. The passages in our copy do not give the claimed 56% and 5% lithium-carbonate variance contributions, so those figures cannot be verified. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Our results exceed the confidence interval of LFP cells because our results of currently producing sites (2.8-39 kg CO2eq/kg Li2CO3) are higher than the ones obtained in their study (3.1-22 kg CO2eq/kg Li2CO3).

    “Besides Li2CO3 being a key driver for climate change impacts of LFP cells, our results exceed the confidence interval of LFP cells because our results of currently producing sites (2.8–39 kg of CO2 eq/kg Li2CO3) are higher than the ones obtained in their study (3.1–22 kg of CO2 eq/kg Li2CO3).”

    From Current and Future Impacts of Lithium Carbonate from Brines: A Global Regionalized Life Cycle Assessment Model (2025) · cites this paper as [98]

    The Results section on LFP simulations says lithium carbonate contributed the most to the observed variance, supporting its role as a key driver. But the paper gives the LFP cell confidence interval as 54–69 kgCO2e/kWh, not 3.1–22 kgCO2e/kg Li2CO3. The cited passages do not establish the claimed lithium-carbonate range or the comparison with the citing authors’ results. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • When integrating site-specific LCI of active Li2CO3 mines into NMC811 batteries, climate change impacts vary between 73 and 99 kg CO2eq/kWh of battery capacity, which is in accordance with the 90% confidence interval (59-115 kg CO2eq/kWh) of NMC811 cells.

    “When integrating site-specific LCI of active Li2CO3 mines into NMC811 batteries, climate change impacts vary between 73 kg CO2 eq/kW h and 99 kg CO2 eq/kW h of battery capacity, which is in accordance with the 90% confidence interval (59–115 kg CO2 eq/kW h) of NMC811 cells.98”

    From Current and Future Impacts of Lithium Carbonate from Brines: A Global Regionalized Life Cycle Assessment Model (2025) · cites this paper as [98]

  • Climate change impacts vary between 54 and 86 kg CO2eq/kWh of LFP battery capacity in our study, while the 90% confidence interval is reported to be between 54 and 69 kg CO2eq/kWh.

    “Climate change impacts vary between 54 and 86 kg of CO2eq/kWh of LFP battery capacity in our study, while the 90% confidence interval is reported to be between 54 and 69 kg CO2 eq/kW h.98”

    From Current and Future Impacts of Lithium Carbonate from Brines: A Global Regionalized Life Cycle Assessment Model (2025) · cites this paper as [98]

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • CF contribution breakdown is assigned to variance panels

    Minor

    The Methods attribute the breakdown based on 100 points around the median to panels 2c and 3c. The captions identify panel b as the 100-point CF contribution breakdown and panel c as the variance breakdown.

  • Conflicting GREET database years

    Minor

    The Fig. 1 caption labels its GREET values as 2021, while the Methods say the database values were collected from GREET 2022.

  • Jitter plots are assigned to the wrong figure panels

    Minor

    The Methods place the jitter plots in panels 2b and 3b, whereas the figure captions place them in panels 2a and 3a.

  • Regional battery distributions are attributed to a lithium emission-curve panel

    Minor

    The text says Fig. 1a shows regional density functions and dot distributions, but the Fig. 1 caption identifies panel a as a lithium emission curve.

  • Threshold discussion points to panels without manufacturing-plant dots

    Minor

    The Discussion places manufacturing-plant dots in Figs. 2b and 3b, but the captions describe those panels as CF contribution breakdowns; the dots are in panel a.

5 of 5

Cites

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Related

Authors
Peiseler, L., Schenker, V., Schatzmann, K., Pfister, S., Wood, V., & Schmidt, T.
Affiliations
ETH Zurich (CH)
Corresponding author
Peiseler, Leopold
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2024-11-27
Volume
15
Issue
1
Pages
10301-10301
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-024-54634-y
PMC
PMC11603021
OpenAlex
W4404754688
Cited by
131
References
42
Citations by year
2026: 77 · 2025: 54
FWCI
15.34
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • SWISSCHAINS project of the Institute of Science, Technology and Policy at ETH Zurich
  • e-Bike City project, Civil, Geomatics, and Environmental Engineering Department of ETH Zürich
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanical Engineering › Extraction and Separation Processes
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Photovoltaic Systems and Sustainability
Keywords
lithium-ion batteries, carbon footprint, battery materials, lithium, nickel, cobalt, mining costs, LiFePO4 cathode, raw material procurement, decarbonization policy

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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