Total material requirement for the global energy transition to 2050: A focus on transport and electricity
Open accessAbstract
Global energy transitions could fundamentally change flows of both minerals and energy resources over time. It is, therefore, increasingly important to holistically and dynamically capture the impacts of large-scale energy transitions on resource flows including hidden flows such as mine waste, as well as direct flows. Here we demonstrate a systematic model that can quantify resource flows of both minerals and energy resources under the energy transition by using stock-flow dynamics and the concept of Total Material Requirement (TMR). The proposed model was applied to the International Energy Agency’s scenarios up to 2050, targeting 15 electricity generation and 5 transport technologies. Results indicate that the global energy transition could increase TMR flows associated with mineral production by around 200–900% in the electricity sector and 350–700% in the transport sector respectively from 2015 to 2050, depending on the scenarios. Such a drastic increase in TMR flows is largely associated with an increased demand for copper, silver, nickel, lithium and cobalt, as well as steel. Our results highlight that the decarbonization of the electricity sector can reduce energy resource flows and support the hypothesis that the expansion of low-carbon technologies could reduce total resource flows expressed as TMR. In the transport sector, on the other hand, the dissemination of Electric Vehicles could cause a sharp increase in TMR flows associated with mineral production, which could offset a decrease in energy resource flows. Findings in this study emphasize that a sustainable transition would be unachievable without designing resource cycles with a nexus approach.
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The global energy transition will require increases in mineral production by up to 900% in the electric sector, coupled with sharp increases in the production of mine wastes.
“Furthermore, the global energy transition will require increases in mineral production by up to 900% in the electric sector, coupled with sharp increases in the production of mine wastes [2].”
From Carbon Mineralization with North American PGM Mine Tailings—Characterization and Reactivity Analysis (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
The Abstract and Conclusions (page numbers unavailable) project a 200–900% increase in total material requirement (TMR) flows associated with mineral production in the electricity sector—not a 900% increase in mineral production itself. Section 4.1 says the transition could generate mine waste, but does not quantify a sharp increase in mine-waste production. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe electric sector is projected to see a 900% increase in mineral production.
“This will be realized in part through transformations in the electric sector, which is projected to see a 900% increase in mineral production [2].”
From Carbon Mineralization with North American PGM Mine Tailings—Characterization and Reactivity Analysis (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
The Conclusions report a projected increase of around 200%–900% in the electricity sector from 2015 to 2050, depending on the scenario. But that figure measures total material requirement (TMR) flows associated with mineral production, not mineral production itself; 900% is the upper end of a range, not a single projection. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredWhile materials from battery recycling are expected to reduce environmental damage, raw material extraction will need to provide the lion's share of battery materials in the foreseeable future.
“While materials from battery recycling are expected to reduce environmental damage, raw material extraction will need to provide the lion’s share of battery materials in the foreseeable future41–47.”
From Carbon footprint distributions of lithium-ion batteries and their materials (2024) · cites this paper as [45]
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The thermal analysis of polymers at high pressures
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Flagged first, then by citations
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Towards the lithium-ion battery production network: Thinking beyond mineral supply chains
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“Furthermore, the global energy transition will require increases in mineral production by up to 900% in the electric sector, coupled with sharp increases in the production of mine wastes [2].”
Background
- Authors
- Watari, T., McLellan, B. C., Giurco, D., Dominish, E., Yamasue, E., & Nansai, K.
- Affiliations
- University of Technology Sydney (AU)
- Kyoto University (JP)
- Ritsumeikan University (JP)
- The University of Sydney (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Watari, Takuma
- Venue
- Resources, Conservation and Recycling
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2019-09
- Volume
- 148
- Pages
- 91-103
- ISSN
- 0921-3449 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2946482034
- Cited by
- 341
- References
- 114
- Citations by year
- 2026: 46 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 58 · 2023: 54 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 4
- FWCI
- 12.82
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Resources Conservation and Recycling (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Institutional Repositories DataBase (IRDB) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UTS ePRESS (University of Technology Sydney) (submittedVersion)
- Kyoto University Research Information Repository (Kyoto University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Grants-in-Aid for Research (18KT0056, 18KT0010, 15H02862)
- Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
- Kyoto University Ishizue Grant
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Keywords
- total material requirement, energy transition, electric vehicles, electricity decarbonization, copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, silver, steel, mining waste, resource nexus, transportation technology, power generation technology
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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