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Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

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Dudas, Gytis, Carvalho, Luiz Max, Bedford, Trevor, Tatem, Andrew J., Baele, Guy, Faria, Nuno R., Park, Daniel J., Ladner, Jason T., Arias, Armando, Asogun, Danny, Bielejec, Filip, Caddy, Sarah L., Cotten, Matthew, D’Ambrozio, Jonathan, Dellicour, Simon, Di Caro, Antonino, Diclaro, Joseph W., Duraffour, Sophie, Elmore, Michael J., Fakoli, Lawrence S., Faye, Ousmane, Gilbert, Merle L., Gevao, Sahr M., Gire, Stephen, Gladden-Young, Adrianne, Gnirke, Andreas, Goba, Augustine, Grant, Donald S., Haagmans, Bart L., Hiscox, Julian A., Jah, Umaru, Kugelman, Jeffrey R., Liu, Di, Lu, Jia, Malboeuf, Christine M., Mate, Suzanne, Matthews, David A., Matranga, Christian B., Meredith, Luke W., Qu, James, Quick, Joshua, Pas, Suzan D., Phan, My V. T., Pollakis, Georgios, Reusken, Chantal B., Sanchez-Lockhart, Mariano, Schaffner, Stephen F., Schieffelin, John S., Sealfon, Rachel S., Simon-Loriere, Etienne, Smits, Saskia L., Stoecker, Kilian, Thorne, Lucy, Tobin, Ekaete Alice, Vandi, Mohamed A., Watson, Simon J., West, Kendra, Whitmer, Shannon, Wiley, Michael R., Winnicki, Sarah M., Wohl, Shirlee, Wölfel, Roman, Yozwiak, Nathan L., Andersen, Kristian G., Blyden, Sylvia O., Bolay, Fatorma, Carroll, Miles W., Dahn, Bernice, Diallo, Boubacar, Formenty, Pierre, Fraser, Christophe, Gao, George F., Garry, Robert F., Goodfellow, Ian, Günther, Stephan, Happi, Christian T., Holmes, Edward C., Kargbo, Brima, Keïta, Sakoba, Kellam, Paul, Koopmans, Marion P. G., Kuhn, Jens H., Loman, Nicholas J., Magassouba, N’Faly, Naidoo, Dhamari, Nichol, Stuart T., Nyenswah, Tolbert, Palacios, Gustavo, Pybus, Oliver G., Sabeti, Pardis C., Sall, Amadou, Ströher, Ute, Wurie, Isatta, Suchard, Marc A., Lemey, Philippe, Rambaut, Andrew·2017·Nature
DOI 10.1038/nature22040

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Abstract

Summary The 2013-2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Extensive collaborative sequencing projects have produced a large collection of over 1600 Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5% of known cases, unmatched for any single human epidemic. In this comprehensive analysis of this entire dataset, we reconstruct in detail the history of migration, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region. We test the association of geography, climate, administrative boundaries, demography and culture with viral movement among 56 administrative regions. Our results show that during the outbreak viral lineages moved according to a classic ‘gravity’ model, with more intense migration between larger and more proximate population centers. Notably, we find that despite a strong attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, localized cross-border transmission beforehand had already set the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures relatively ineffective in curbing the epidemic. We use this empirical evidence to address why the epidemic did not spread into neighboring countries, showing that although these regions were susceptible to developing significant outbreaks, they were also at lower risk of viral introductions. Finally, viral genome sequence data uniquely reveals this large epidemic to be a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help inform approaches to intervention in such epidemics in the future.

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Metadata

Authors
Dudas, G., Carvalho, L. M., Bedford, T., Tatem, A. J., Baele, G., Faria, N. R., Park, D. J., Ladner, J. T., Arias, A., Asogun, D., Bielejec, F., Caddy, S. L., Cotten, M., D’Ambrozio, J., Dellicour, S., Di Caro, A., Diclaro, J. W., Duraffour, S., Elmore, M. J., Fakoli, L. S., Faye, O., Gilbert, M. L., Gevao, S. M., Gire, S., Gladden-Young, A., Gnirke, A., Goba, A., Grant, D. S., Haagmans, B. L., Hiscox, J. A., Jah, U., Kugelman, J. R., Liu, D., Lu, J., Malboeuf, C. M., Mate, S., Matthews, D. A., Matranga, C. B., Meredith, L. W., Qu, J., Quick, J., Pas, S. D., Phan, M. V. T., Pollakis, G., Reusken, C. B., Sanchez-Lockhart, M., Schaffner, S. F., Schieffelin, J. S., Sealfon, R. S., Simon-Loriere, E., Smits, S. L., Stoecker, K., Thorne, L., Tobin, E. A., Vandi, M. A., Watson, S. J., West, K., Whitmer, S., Wiley, M. R., Winnicki, S. M., Wohl, S., Wölfel, R., Yozwiak, N. L., Andersen, K. G., Blyden, S. O., Bolay, F., Carroll, M. W., Dahn, B., Diallo, B., Formenty, P., Fraser, C., Gao, G. F., Garry, R. F., Goodfellow, I., Günther, S., Happi, C. T., Holmes, E. C., Kargbo, B., Keïta, S., Kellam, P., Koopmans, M. P. G., Kuhn, J. H., Loman, N. J., Magassouba, N., Naidoo, D., Nichol, S. T., Nyenswah, T., Palacios, G., Pybus, O. G., Sabeti, P. C., Sall, A., Ströher, U., Wurie, I., Suchard, M. A., Lemey, P., & Rambaut, A.
Venue
Nature
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2017-04
Volume
544
Issue
7650
Pages
309-315
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
DOI
10.1038/nature22040
OpenAlex
W2516104505
Cited by
405
References
6
FWCI
36.08
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
hybrid
Licence
www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1038/nature22040
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Dudas, G., Carvalho, L. M., Bedford, T., Tatem, A. J., Baele, G., Faria, N. R., Park, D. J., Ladner, J. T., Arias, A., Asogun, D., Bielejec, F., Caddy, S. L., Cotten, M., D’Ambrozio, J., Dellicour, S., Di Caro, A., Diclaro, J. W., Duraffour, S., Elmore, M. J., . . . Rambaut, A. (2017). Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22040

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