Cited by 1,616Climate Change Communication and PerceptionClimate Change Policy and EconomicsPro-Environmental Behavior and Attitudes

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Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change

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Hornsey, Matthew J., Harris, Emily A., Bain, Paul G., Fielding, Kelly S.·2016·Nature Climate Change

DOI 10.1038/nclimate2943

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Introduction to Meta‐Analysis
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“…although there is a confirmed relationship between conservatism and some instances of science denial, such as climate change denial (e.g. Hornsey et al., 2016), other instances, such as genetically modified organism (GMO) opposition, do not show distinctive political associations…”
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“Yet all levels of climate action are met with rationalization, avoidance, denial, skepticism, and increased resource consumption (Arndt et al., 2004; Hornsey et al., 2016; Whitmarsh, 2009; Whitmarsh, 2011).”
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The climate change risk perception model in the United States: A replication study
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“Research has shown that individuals with liberal ideology are more likely to believe in climate change, and the scientific consensus about it, than those with conservative ideology (Dunlap et al. 2016; Hornsey et al. 2016; Hu et al. 2017).”
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Threats to Science: Politicization, Misinformation, and Inequalities
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Blankenberg, A., & Alhusen, H. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3186089 · Cited by 42
“An individual’s belief in climate change only has a small up to moderate e↵ect on their willingness to behave in a climate-friendly way (meta-analysis) (Hornsey et al., 2016).”
Background
Attitudes to climate change risk: classification of and transitions in the UK population between 2012 and 2020
Liu, T., Shryane, N. M., & Elliot, M. J. (2022) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-022-01287-1 · Cited by 35
“…for age, with some studies revealing a small negative correlation between age and climate change perception, (e.g., see Heath and Gifford, 2006; Hornsey et al., 2016), while others find no significant effect (e.g., Akerlof et al., 2013; O’Connor et al., 1999) or a positive correlation (Slimak…”
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“Values support and determine behaviors, beliefs and decisions (Satterfield 2001; Steg et al. 2014a, b; Chen 2015; Hornsey et al. 2016; Bouman et al. 2018; Liobikienė and Poškus 2019), so assessing values can present different perspectives on how people use, manage and experience environment resources (Jackson et al.”
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Analysis of climate change disinformation across types, agents and media platforms
Hassan, I., Musa, R. M., Azmi, M. N. L., Abdullah, M. R., & Yusoff, S. Z. (2023) · Information Development · doi:10.1177/02666669221148693 · Cited by 35
“…pointed out that politics contributes to climate change disinformation, a few studies showed that political beliefs, as well as trust in political institutions and values, have a positive in ﬂ uence on people ’ s opinions about climate change (Drews and van den Bergh, 2015; Hornsey et al., 2016).”
Collective adaptation to climate change
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Climate change beliefs shape the interpretation of forest fire events
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“Whether individuals associate these with climate change or not, some of its consequences can be personally experienced from natural disasters such as flooding, droughts, or forest fires, which correlate with stronger climate change concern (Akerlof et al. 2013; Hornsey et al. 2016; Konisky et al. 2016; Martin et al. 2…”
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Genesis or Evolution of Gender Differences? Worldview-Based Dilemmas in The Processing of Scientific Information
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Let’s Talk about Climate Change: Developing Effective Conversations between Scientists and Communities
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“Individuals who align with a conservative political ideology, and in particular those endorsing SDO and RWA, are more likely to deny climate change and hold less proenvironmental attitudes (Hornsey et al., 2016; Stanley & Wilson, 2019).”
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A “precariously unprepared” Pentagon? Climate security beliefs and decision-making in the U.S. military
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“As mentioned, a meta-analysis of research does not consider the causal order of ideology and climate change opinions, nor does this research cite any over-time panel data that could test the causal order (Hornsey et al., 2016).”
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Fear emotion reduces reported mitigation behavior in adolescents subject to climate change education
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“Related to this, several studies find no significant link between proenvironmental attitudes and investment in EE or energy-saving actions (Hornsey et al. 2016; Kollmuss and Agyeman 2002; Ramos et al. 2016; Schleich et al. 2016; van der Linden 2017), in other words that proenvironmental attitudes…”
Background
Liberty and the pursuit of science denial
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“For example, a meta-analysis by Hornsey et al. (2016) found political conservatism to be a robust predictor of climate change beliefs.”
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Background
The weather affects air conditioner purchases to fill the energy efficiency gap
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Climate change knowledge influences attitude to mitigation via efficacy beliefs
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“The study extends upon the literature supporting both climate change knowledge and self-efficacy for climate change as predictors of pro-environmental attitudes (Bamberg & Möser, 2007; Bostrom et al., 2019; Geiger et al., 2017; Hornsey et al., 2016; Ranney & Clark, 2016).”
Background
Behavioral interventions motivate action to address climate change
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“Climate change is a politically polarized issue—in the United States and globally, conservatives are less likely to believe in climate change, perceive climate change as a threat, and support action to address climate change ( 109 , 110 ).”
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Liu, X., Hao, F., Portney, K. E., & Liu, Y. (2019) · The China Quarterly · doi:10.1017/s0305741019000845 · Cited by 33
“21 Brody et al. 2008; Hornsey et al. 2016; McCright et al. 2016; Drews and van den Bergh 2016.”
Background
Emotional foundations of the public climate change divide
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Scepticism and perceived self-efficacy influence fishers’ low risk perceptions of climate change
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“…four types of core values have been discerned (Schwartz, 1992; Stern et al., 1998; Dietz et al., 2005; de Groot and Steg, 2008; Steg et al., 2014; Hornsey et al., 2016): two types of self-transcending values that motivate sustainable behavior intentions, namely biospheric values (i.e., valuing…”
Background
Science Denial
Jylhä, K. M., Stanley, S. K., Ojala, M., & Clarke, E. J. R. (2022) · European Psychologist · doi:10.1027/1016-9040/a000487 · Cited by 49
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“The lack of a strong relationship between political orientation and either of our measures of climate opinion was surprising, given the centrality of political orientation that has been reported in previous literature on climate opinion (Hornsey et al., 2016; McCright, et al., 2016a, 2016b).”
BackgroundResult
Facing global environmental change: The role of culturally embedded cognitive biases
Moser, D., Steiglechner, P., & Schlüter, A. (2022) · Environmental Development · doi:10.1016/j.envdev.2022.100735 · Cited by 34
Why Is Mother Earth on Life Support? Metaphors in Environmental Discourse
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Is awareness of climate change a predictor of eco-anxiety? Research within the scope of nursing students
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Consequence evaluations and moral concerns about climate change: insights from nationally representative surveys across four European countries
Doran, R., Böhm, G., Pfister, H., Steentjes, K., & Pidgeon, N. (2019) · Journal of Risk Research · doi:10.1080/13669877.2018.1473468 · Cited by 31
“A recent meta-analysis from Hornsey et al. (2016) shows that socio-demographics (e.g. age, gender, education, political affiliation and ideology) contribute to explaining the degree to which an individual believes in climate change, which in turn increases together with pro-environmental intentions…”
BackgroundInfluential
Unavoidable solutions for coastal adaptation in Reunion Island (Indian Ocean)
Magnan, A., & Duvat, V. K. E. (2018) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2018.09.002 · Cited by 34
‘Is global warming affecting the weather?’ Evidence for increased attribution beliefs among coastal versus inland US residents
Cutler, M., Marlon, J. R., Howe, P. D., & Leiserowitz, A. (2019) · Environmental Sociology · doi:10.1080/23251042.2019.1690725 · Cited by 32
“…events and perceptions of risks associated with global warming, however, has found relatively limited support (McCright, Dunlap, and Xiao 2014; Hornsey et al. 2016), and is likely due in part to the perceived spatial and temporal distance of global warming among the general public in the…”
Background
Food for Thought: Investigating Communication Strategies to Counteract Moral Disengagement Regarding Meat Consumption
Buttlar, B., Rothe, A., Kleinert, S., Hahn, L., & Walther, E. (2020) · Environmental Communication · doi:10.1080/17524032.2020.1791207 · Cited by 33
Exploring the association between climate change concern and mitigation behaviour between societies: A person‐context interaction approach
Chan, H., & Tam, K. (2020) · Asian Journal Of Social Psychology · doi:10.1111/ajsp.12430 · Cited by 33
Acceptance of group‐based dominance and climate change denial: A cross‐cultural study in Hong Kong, New Zealand, and Sweden
Jylhä, K. M., Tam, K., & Milfont, T. L. (2020) · Asian Journal Of Social Psychology · doi:10.1111/ajsp.12444 · Cited by 34
Personality and the pro-environmental individual: Unpacking the interplay between attitudes, behaviour and climate change denial
Gibbon, E., & Douglas, H. (2021) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2021.111031 · Cited by 32
The electoral importance and evolution of climate‐related energy policy: evidence from Switzerland
Lüth, M., & Schaffer, L. M. (2022) · Swiss Political Science Review · doi:10.1111/spsr.12520 · Cited by 35
Psychometric properties of the Italian version of the climate change worry scale
Innocenti, M., Santarelli, G., Faggi, V., Ciabini, L., Castellini, G., Galassi, F., & Ricca, V. (2022) · The Journal of Climate Change and Health · doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2022.100140 · Cited by 31
Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Production: Evidence from Nepal
Devkota, N., & Paija, N. (2020) · Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development · doi:10.37801/ajad2020.17.2.4 · Cited by 31
“There is no debate that climate change is real (Hornsey et al. 2016).”
Background
Pro-Environmental Behavior and Climate Change Anxiety, Perception, Hope, and Despair According to Political Orientation
Leite, Â. M. T., Lopes, D., & Pereira, L. H. (2023) · Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.3390/bs13120966 · Cited by 37
“…et al. [33] found that conservatives tend to value government regulations less, while liberals are more likely to tolerate or even welcome a greater government role in promoting public welfare [51]; this is corroborated in the studies of Hornsey et al. [52], Wang and Kim [53], and Whitmarsh [54].”
Result
Solastalgia following the Australian summer of bushfires: Qualitative and quantitative insights about environmental distress and recovery
Stanley, S. K., Heffernan, T., Macleod, E., Lane, J., Walker, I. A., Evans, O., Greenwood, L., Kurz, T., Calear, A. L., Reynolds, J., et al. (2024) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102273 · Cited by 31
In the Eye of the Storm: Hurricanes, Climate Migration, and Climate Attitudes
Arias, S. B., & Blair, C. (2024) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055424000352 · Cited by 38
“The impacts of disasters are often substantively small (Hornsey et al. 2016; Whitmarsh 2008).”
Influential
Perceptions of climate change across the Canadian forest sector: The key factors of institutional and geographical environment
Améztegui, A., Solarik, K. A., Parkins, J. R., Houle, D., Messier, C., & Gravel, D. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0197689 · Cited by 31
“The importance of political view as predictor of climate change perceptions has already been observed for the general population and policy makers of the United States and Canada, where the largest differences in views of the existence of global warming appear across partisan affiliation [11,20,26,40].”
BackgroundResult
Teacher perceptions of state standards and climate change pedagogy: opportunities and barriers for implementing consensus-informed instruction on climate change
Hannah, A. L., & Rhubart, D. C. (2019) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02590-8 · Cited by 37
Extreme weather and climate opinion: evidence from Australia
Hughes, L., Konisky, D. M., & Potter, S. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02900-5 · Cited by 31
“The results also suggest any difference in the strategies adopted by elites in framing climate change in Australia compared to the USA—such as placing greater emphasis on the costs of climate mitigation while recognizing that climate change is occurring—does not change the substantive relationship between political af…”
BackgroundInfluential
Reducing the gap between pro‐environmental disposition and behavior: The role of feeling power
Dong, M., Vélez, G. F. P., & Wu, S. (2020) · Journal of Applied Social Psychology · doi:10.1111/jasp.12733 · Cited by 32
“For example, power endows people with subjective feelings of control and autonomy (Inesi et al., 2011; Lammers et al., 2016), refrains them from the influences of others (Galinsky et al., 2008; Guinote, 2007), and ultimately promotes authenticity and individual well-being (Kifer et al., 2013;…”
Background
Changing minds about global warming: vicarious experience predicts self-reported opinion change in the USA
Ballew, M. T., Marlon, J. R., Goldberg, M. H., Maibach, E. W., Rosenthal, S. A., Aiken, E., & Leiserowitz, A. (2022) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03397-w · Cited by 39
“Political views are among the strongest correlates of global warming opinion in the USA (e.g., Brulle et al. 2012; Hornsey et al. 2016).”
BackgroundInfluential
Climate change education in China: a pioneering case of its implementation in tertiary education and its effects on students’ beliefs and attitudes
Tang, K. H. D. (2022) · International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education · doi:10.1108/ijshe-05-2022-0151 · Cited by 31
Why focusing on “climate change denial” is counterproductive
Bretter, C., & Schulz, F. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2217716120 · Cited by 31
“On the individual level, the share of climate change deniers has been decreasing continuously for the past decade (6).”
Background
Reasoning about climate change
Bagó, B., Rand, D. G., & Pennycook, G. (2023) · PNAS Nexus · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad100 · Cited by 41
Proud fathers and fossil fuels: gendered identities and climate obstruction
Letourneau, A. M., Davidson, D. J., Karsgaard, C., & Ivanova, D. (2023) · Environmental Politics · doi:10.1080/09644016.2023.2274271 · Cited by 31
“2000, Davidson and Haan 2012, Hornsey et al .”
Background
Growing polarisation: ideology and attitudes towards climate change
Coffé, H., Crawley, S., & Givens, J. (2025) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2024.2435727 · Cited by 36
Scepticism of anthropogenic climate change: Additional evidence for the role of system-justifying ideologies
Milfont, T. L., Abrahamse, W., & MacDonald, E. A. (2020) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2020.110237 · Cited by 30
Challenging the Idea That Humans Are Not Designed to Solve Climate Change
Atkinson, Q. D., & Jacquet, J. (2021) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/17456916211018454 · Cited by 35
“Cross-cultural work has demonstrated that, around the globe, democratic values and, particularly in the West, worldview and political ideology are among the most powerful and consistent predictors of climate change concern (Dunlap et al., 2016; Hornsey et al., 2016; Lewis et al., 2019).”
Background
Union membership and the willingness to prioritize environmental protection above growth and jobs: A multi‐level analysis covering 22 European countries
Ringqvist, J. (2021) · British Journal of Industrial Relations · doi:10.1111/bjir.12654 · Cited by 29
Trust is key: Determinants of false beliefs about climate change in eight countries
Ejaz, W., Altay, S., Fletcher, R., & Nielsen, R. K. (2024) · New Media & Society · doi:10.1177/14614448241250302 · Cited by 29
“A meta-analysis found that trust in scientists is one of the strongest predictors of acceptance of climate change (Hornsey et al., 2016).”
Influential
Proenvironmental Behavior Increases Subjective Well-Being: Evidence From an Experience-Sampling Study and a Randomized Experiment
Prinzing, M. (2024) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/09567976241251766 · Cited by 38
“…perceptions and highlight a novel strategy for motivating climate action. concern and proenvironmental behavior are more normative for those on the political left (Hornsey et al., 2016), the more right-leaning people are, the less their group members will tend to commend proenvironmen-tal behavior.”
The effect of seeing scientists as intellectually humble on trust in scientists and their research
Koetke, J., Schumann, K., Bowes, S. M., & Vaupotič, N. (2024) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-024-02060-x · Cited by 30
“3, 5 and 8).”
Perceptions of scientific consensus do not predict later beliefs about the reality of climate change: A test of the gateway belief model using cross-lagged panel analysis
Kerr, J. R., & Wilson, M. (2018) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2018.08.012 · Cited by 29
It's not too late to do the right thing: Moral motivations for climate change action
Bain, P. G., & Bongiorno, R. (2019) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.615 · Cited by 36
Self-citation
The drivers of individual climate actions in Europe
Reichl, J., Cohen, J., Klöckner, C. A., Kollmann, A., & Борисовна, А. В. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102390 · Cited by 33
Climate change acknowledgment to promote sustainable development: A critical discourse analysis of local action plans in coastal Florida
Tenali, S., & McManus, P. (2022) · Sustainable Development · doi:10.1002/sd.2301 · Cited by 29
How does mindfulness relate to proenvironmental behavior? The mediating influence of cognitive reappraisal and climate change awareness
Apaolaza, V., Paredes, M. R., Hartmann, P., Barrutia, J. M., & Echebarria, C. (2022) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131914 · Cited by 29
Does belief in climate change conspiracy theories predict everyday life pro-environmental behaviors? Testing the longitudinal relationship in China and the U.S.
Chan, H., Tam, K., & Hong, Y. (2023) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.101980 · Cited by 29
Climate change and intergroup relations: Psychological insights, synergies, and future prospects
Pearson, A. R., & Schuldt, J. P. (2018) · Group Processes & Intergroup Relations · doi:10.1177/1368430217747750 · Cited by 32
Public scientific testimony in the scientific image
Gerken, M. (2020) · Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A · doi:10.1016/j.shpsa.2019.05.006 · Cited by 28
Diverging Beliefs on Climate Change and Climate Policy: The Role of Political Orientation
Knollenborg, L., & Sommer, S. (2022) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-022-00747-1 · Cited by 28
“In line with previous findings from the literature (e.g., McCright and Dunlap 2011; Hornsey et al. 2016), we find that environmental attitudes and especially political orientation are strongly correlated with climate skepticism, while socio-economic characteristics are less important.”
Result
Political orientation and climate concern shape visual attention to climate change
Whitman, J. C., Zhao, J., Roberts, K. H., & Todd, R. M. (2018) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2147-9 · Cited by 30
“Despite the scientific consensus about anthropogenic climate change (Oreskes 2004), widespread public skepticism remains (e.g., Hornsey et al. 2016; Hulme 2009; Poortinga et al. 2011; Rainie et al. 2015; Weber and Stern 2011).”
Background
Developing science tabletop games: ‘Catan’® and global warming
Illingworth, S., & Wake, P. (2019) · Journal of Science Communication · doi:10.22323/2.18040204 · Cited by 30
“previous studies [see e.g. Adger et al., 2009; Hornsey et al., 2016; Mcloughlin et al., 2018] have pointed to the potential barriers that might arise from the use of the term “global warming” this is something that we have yet to observe.”
Result
An Issue of Scale: The Challenge of Time, Space and Multitude in Sustainability and Geography Education
Skarstein, F., & Wolff, L.-A. (2020) · Education Sciences · doi:10.3390/educsci10020028 · Cited by 37
Climate beliefs in an oil-dependent economy: Norwegian pre-service science teachers’ attitudes towards climate change
Skarstein, F. (2020) · Environmental Education Research · doi:10.1080/13504622.2020.1728233 · Cited by 28
The effects of a temporal framing manipulation on environmentalism: A replication and extension
Stanley, S. K., Klas, A., Clarke, E. J. R., & Walker, I. A. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0246058 · Cited by 26
“While the temporal framing effect did not replicate in our studies, the associations between ideology and environmentalism were consistent with previous research and add to the literature on the ideological divide in pro-environmentalism that is observed in Anglosphere nations [1, 58].”
BackgroundResultInfluential
Finding shared meaning in the Anthropocene: engaging diverse perspectives on climate change
Hochachka, G. (2021) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-021-00965-4 · Cited by 28

Authors: Hornsey, M. J., Harris, E. A., Bain, P. G., & Fielding, K. S.
Affiliations: The University of Queensland (AU)
Queensland University of Technology (AU)
Corresponding author: Hornsey, Matthew J.
ORCID: Hornsey, Matthew J.
Harris, Emily A.
Bain, Paul G.
Fielding, Kelly S.
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2016-02-22
Volume: 6
Issue: 6
Pages: 622-626
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2943
OpenAlex: W2279692628
Cited by: 1,616
References: 35
Citations by year: 2026: 165 · 2025: 244 · 2024: 216 · 2023: 185 · 2022: 182 · 2021: 187 · 2020: 191 · 2019: 100 · 2018: 69 · 2017: 54 · 2016: 22
FWCI: 233.52
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
eprints.qut.edu.au
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Faculty of Health; Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Pro-Environmental Behavior and Attitudes
Keywords: climate change beliefs, climate change skepticism, political ideology, political orientation, worldview, climate-friendly behavior, climate action intentions, sex differences, cross-national comparison

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