The DOI matches its Crossref record; 27 of the 29 references it cites were found in a registry or an index, and 2 are not checked yet.
Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization
Open accessOverview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“consistent with findings by previous studies of a stronger rainfall response to ENSO SST variability even if ENSO SST variability itself does not change 2-4 .”
From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [4]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S. C. B., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D. J., & Allen, M. R. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08017 · Cited by 2,775
ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science
McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E., & Glantz, M. H. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1132588 · Cited by 2,236
Self-citationIncreasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming.
Cai, W., Borlace, S., Lengaigne, M., van Rensch, P., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Timmermann, A., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M. J., Wu, L., et al. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2100 · Cited by 2,198
Self-citationAnthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes
Fischer, E. M., & Knutti, R. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2617 · Cited by 1,427
Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods
Dutton, A. L., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto, R. M., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., & Raymo, M. E. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaa4019 · Cited by 904
Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., & Riahi, K. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2572 · Cited by 875
Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming
Cai, W., Wang, G., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M. J., Wu, L., Jin, F., Timmermann, A., Collins, M. D., Vecchi, G. A., Lengaigne, M., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2492 · Cited by 733
Self-citationENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño
Takahashi, K. I., Montecinos, A., Goubanova, K., & Dewitte, B. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl047364 · Cited by 692
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Schellnhuber, H. J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T. M. L. & Yohe, G. (eds) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2006).
- Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1–32 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 201–227 of 227
Dipole response of early‐summer rainfall in eastern China to 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming
Lei, Y., Yue, X., & Liu, Z. (2022) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.7879 · Cited by 1
New study helps solve a 30-year-old puzzle: how is climate change affecting El Niño and La Niña?
Cai, W., & Santoso, A. (2023) · doi:10.64628/aa.xnntst5h9 · Cited by 1
Self-citationEnso diversity and global warming
Carréric, A. (2019) · doi:10.70675/b24fd2cbz32e4z407ez9fc5zfc9edf33ba00 · Cited by 1
Nunes, M. H. (2019) · Apollo (University of Cambridge) · doi:10.17863/cam.42695
Do El Niño events beget generations of reproductively deficient adults?Preprint
Ortega, S., Rodríguez, C., & Drummond, H. M. (2019) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/594226
Li, K. (2022) · International Conference on Electronic Information Engineering, Big Data and Computer Technology (EIBDCT) · doi:10.1117/12.2635410
Adeola, R. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-71025-9_160-1
Ahmed, I. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-71266-2_1
Climate Change and Large Rivers
Gupta, A., Slaymaker, O., & Junk, W. J. (2020) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781118451410.ch12
Reidy, J. L., Sinnott, E. A., Thompson, F., & O'Donnell, L. (2023) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.4583
Rodrigues, Í. S. (2023) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2023-211-ac2
Sanabria, J., Neukom, R., Llacza, A., Salzmann, N., & Calanca, P. (2025) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2025.100746
Jia, Z. (2025) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-2770-ac2
Factors Determining the Frequency of El Niño
Gu, Z., & Sun, D. (2025) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-25-0032.1
Increasing uncertainty in large flood and drought projections over central India
Rajendran, S., & Sandeep, S. (2025) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ae1dde
Changes in coral reef ecosystems as an indication of climate and global change
Foster, N. L., & Attrill, M. J. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-32838-1.00016-3
Distinct ENSO Flavours and SAM Variability Modulate Surface Melt over the Ross Ice ShelfPreprint
Dutta, S., Deb, P., Mottram, R. H., & Hansen, N. (2025) · doi:10.22541/essoar.176478809.94191580/v1
Role of the Oceans in Southern Hemisphere Climate
Santoso, A., Cai, W., Wang, G., Gupta, A. S., Rodrigues, R. R., & Taschetto, A. S. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009352680.006
Self-citationMlotshwa, N., Skeeles, M. R., Duncan, M. I., Muller, C., Potts, W. M., Winkler, A., & Childs, A.-R. (2025) · African Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.2989/1814232x.2025.2558738
Katzenmeier, S. N., Gross, M., & Stoeck, T. (2026) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.72827
They're Out There, You Know: Sea Turtle Sightings and Strandings in Canadian Pacific Waters
Spaven, L. D., Migneault, A., Dracott, K., Birdsall, C., Danelesko, T., Raverty, S., Haulena, M., & Ford, J. K. B. (2026) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.72513
Han, J., Ludescher, J., & Yuan, N. (2026) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-026-08057-8
The Rise and Fall of ENSO in a Warming World: Insights from a Lag-Linear ModelPreprint
Tuckman, P., & Yang, D. (2026) · doi:10.22541/essoar.177275304.40703393/v1
Zhang, Y., Zhou, F., Fang, K., & Lin, S. (2026) · Journal of Forestry Research · doi:10.1007/s11676-026-02040-z
Distinct El Niño Flavors and SAM Variability Modulate Surface Melt Over the Ross Ice Shelf
Dutta, S., Deb, P., Mottram, R. H., & Hansen, N. (2026) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2025jd045932
Oceanographic Drivers of Larval Transport Variability in South Atlantic Jasus paulensis Populations
Young, E. F., Morley, S., Bell, J. B., Laptikhovsky, V., Glass, J., Collins, M. A., & Young, E. F. (2026) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1029/2025jc023603
Metadata
- Authors
- Wang, G., Cai, W., Gan, B., Wu, L., Santoso, A., Lin, X., Chen, Z., & McPhaden, M. J.
- Affiliations
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (CN)
- NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cai, Wenju
- Wu, Lixin
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2017-07-24
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 568-572
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2737147913
- Cited by
- 227
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 25 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 37 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 4
- FWCI
- 18.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UNSWorks (University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Strong
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- extreme El Niño, 1.5 °C warming target, 2°C target, Paris Agreement, CMIP5 projections, climate change impacts
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
