Vegetation structural change since 1981 significantly enhanced the terrestrial carbon sink
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Abstract Satellite observations show that leaf area index (LAI) has increased globally since 1981, but the impact of this vegetation structural change on the global terrestrial carbon cycle has not been systematically evaluated. Through process-based diagnostic ecosystem modeling, we find that the increase in LAI alone was responsible for 12.4% of the accumulated terrestrial carbon sink (95 ± 5 Pg C) from 1981 to 2016, whereas other drivers of CO 2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (temperature, radiation, and precipitation) contributed to 47.0%, 1.1%, and −28.6% of the sink, respectively. The legacy effects of past changes in these drivers prior to 1981 are responsible for the remaining 65.5% of the accumulated sink from 1981 to 2016. These results refine the attribution of the land sink to the various drivers and would help constrain prognostic models that often have large uncertainties in simulating changes in vegetation and their impacts on the global carbon cycle.
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Carbon sink estimation is complex, and results from many models differ considerably.
“Its estimation is complex, and results from many models differ considerably.346”
From Technologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality (2021) · cites this paper as [346]
Many current models cannot effectively simulate the natural and human factors influencing the carbon cycle and estimate the carbon sink.
“Many current models cannot effectively simulate these factors and estimate the C sink.”
From Technologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality (2021) · cites this paper as [346]
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- Authors
- Chen, J. M., Ju, W., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Liu, R., Liu, Y., & Lu, X.
- Affiliations
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application (CN)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Nanjing University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Ju, Weimin
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2019-09-18
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4259-4259
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6751163
- OpenAlex
- W2973497171
- Cited by
- 492
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 50 · 2025: 89 · 2024: 119 · 2023: 93 · 2022: 75 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 3
- FWCI
- 18.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Key R&D Program of China
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Keywords
- terrestrial carbon sink, leaf area index, CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, legacy effects, carbon cycle, satellite remote sensing of vegetation, ecosystem modeling
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