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Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States
Open accessAbstract
Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.
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“Currently, 25 US governors have committed to meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement (9), and 23 of these, and the District of Columbia, have set economy-wide GHG reduction targets using statutory and/or legally binding executive action (10).”
From A framework for localizing global climate solutions and their carbon reduction potential (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
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Gilmore, E., & Clair, T. S. (2025) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2025.2482111 · Cited by 2
“Indeed, researchers view subnational efforts as increasingly crucial to reaching global climate goals (Hultman et al., 2020), especially in light of frequent policy swings at the U.S. federal level and the inconsistency of national climate commitments.”
Murombedzi, J. C., & Chikozho, C. (2023) · International Journal of the Commons · doi:10.5334/ijc.1159 · Cited by 5
“However, the implementation of the Paris Agreement also demonstrates weaknesses in components of this architecture such as through the inability of actors to mobilise adequate financial resources to support climate actions for developing counties (Chowdhury and Jomo, 2022), the limited involvement of corporations and…”
BackgroundGreening the G7 Economies through a More Inclusive Climate Club
Barbier, E. B. (2023) · doi:10.56506/kyix1306 · Cited by 2
Jakob, M. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-93968-6 · Cited by 1
Ittipornpaisarn, P., & Sae-Lim, P. (2025) · International Journal of Disclosure and Governance · doi:10.1057/s41310-025-00309-z · Cited by 1
“Nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement are rooted in the commitment of industry engagement toward sustainability (Hultman et al. 2020; Kuramochi et al. 2020).”
Staying on track: a bottom-up Paris-aligned pathway driven by COP initiatives
Roelfsema, M., Dafnomilis, I., den Elzen, M. G. J., Harmsen, M. J. H. M., de Boer, H. S., Doelman, J., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2026) · Energy and Climate Change · doi:10.1016/j.egycc.2026.100237 · Cited by 1
Greenhouse gas accounting in urban digital twins
Lylykangas, K. S., Dembski, F., Joutsiniemi, A., & Heinonen, J. T. (2026) · Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability · doi:10.1088/2634-4505/ae5a57 · Cited by 1
Managing a low urban emissions world
Lichtman, R. (2024) · npj Climate Action · doi:10.1038/s44168-024-00117-1 · Cited by 2
“Analyses (pre-Covid) of US state local government and business current emissions reductions commitments suggest a reduction of 25% by 2030, with a possible 37% reduction if more subnational actors coordinate and intensify efforts 98,99 .”
Will the United States make its most dramatic climate pledge yet?
Tollefson, J. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/d41586-021-01000-3 · Cited by 1
Aggregating the Impacts of Non-State and Subnational Climate Actions: An Exploration of Methods
Elliott, C., Cyrs, T., Singh, N., & Sharp, A. (2022) · doi:10.46830/wriwp.20.00056 · Cited by 1
Self-citationAssessing Subnational Climate Action in G-20 Cities and Regions: Progress and AmbitionPreprint
Song, K., Farr, K. B., & Hsu, A. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4785778 · Cited by 1
Binsted, M. T. (2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-197-ac2
Binsted, M. T. (2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-197-ac1
(2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-197-rc2
(2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-197-rc1
Accelerating climate action through an inclusive, innovative, and iterative stocktake
Zhang, C. (2023) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.08.016
Huang, X., Peng, W., Zhao, A., Ou, Y., Kennedy, S., Iyer, G. C., McJeon, H. C., Cui, R. Y., & Hultman, N. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4807756
Self-citationNet-Zero Emissions Goals: From Ambition to Action and Accountability
O’Keefe, K. T. V. (2024) · ACS symposium series · doi:10.1021/bk-2024-1483.ch002
The Public Utility Data Liberation Project: Providing Open Data For a Clean Energy Transition
Lamb, K., Belfer, E., Selvans, Z., Norman, B., Gosnell, C., Xia, D., Sharpe, A., & Schira, Z. (2024) · North American Power Symposium (NAPS) · doi:10.1109/naps61145.2024.10741747
Gong, W. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780197757451.002.0007
A Leadership Approach to Low-Carbon Policy Implementation
Gong, W. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780197757451.003.0003
Gong, W. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780197757451.002.0006
Gong, W. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780197757451.003.0005
List of Cited Interviews and Personal Conversations
Gong, W. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780197757451.003.0010
Gong, W. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780197757451.002.0005
Metadata
- Authors
- Hultman, N. E., Clarke, L., Frisch, C., Kennedy, K., McJeon, H., Cyrs, T., Hansel, P., Bodnar, P., Manion, M., Edwards, M. R., Cui, R., Bowman, C., Lund, J., Westphal, M. I., Clapper, A., Jaeger, J., Sen, A., Lou, J., Saha, D., Jaglom, W., Calhoun, K., Igusky, K., deWeese, J., Hammoud, K., Altimirano, J. C., Dennis, M., Henderson, C., Zwicker, G., & O’Neill, J.
- Affiliations
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Rocky Mountain Institute (US)
- World Resources Institute (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Hultman, Nathan E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2020-10-16
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 5255-5255
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7568566
- OpenAlex
- W3092988441
- Cited by
- 116
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 11.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Communities in ADDI (University of the Basque Country) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Hispana (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- Funders
- Bloomberg Family Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Sustainable Development
- Keywords
- subnational climate action, national climate strategies, decarbonization, emission reduction, Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contributions, corporate climate commitments, integrated assessment models, 1.5°C target, United States climate policy, federal climate policy
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