Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat
Open accessAbstract
Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (for example, -32% in Argentina) and increases in beer prices (for example, +193% in Ireland). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.
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Climate change simulation studies predict drought and heat events to worsen over the century with the most severe changes expected to occur in the second half of the century.
“Climate change simulation studies predict drought and heat events to worsen over the century with the most severe changes expected to occur in the second half of the century.”
From Genetic resources and precise gene editing for targeted improvement of barley abiotic stress tolerance (2023) · cites this paper as Xie et al., 2018
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“The priority will likely remain feed and food supply, with luxury markets such as the brewing industry increasingly im‐ pacted and consumers facing increasing costs (Xie et al., 2018; Kebede et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021).”
- Authors
- Xie, W., Xiong, W., Pan, J., Ali, T., Cui, Q., Guan, D., Meng, J., Mueller, N. D., Lin, E., & Davis, S. J.
- Affiliations
- Peking University (CN)
- Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz Y Trigo (MX)
- Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CN)
- Beijing Normal University (CN)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Corresponding author
- Xie, Wei
- Guan, Dabo
- Lin, Erda
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Plants
- Published
- 2018-10-15
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 964-973
- ISSN
- 2055-026X (ISSN-L)
- 2055-0278
- OpenAlex
- W2897473295
- Cited by
- 226
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 36 · 2021: 38 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 19.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Plants (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/L016028/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/N00714X/1, NE/P019900/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- barley yield, drought, extreme heat, climate change impacts, crop yield loss, beer prices, beer consumption, global food supply, climate change projections, DSSAT crop model
- MeSH terms
- Crop Production, Hordeum, Beer, Droughts, Extreme Heat, Climate Change
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