The DOI matches its Crossref record; 6 of the 6 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue
Open accessAbstract
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
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Cites
Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine
Friedman, J. H. (2001) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/aos/1013203451 · Cited by 30,731
The global distribution and burden of dengue
Bhatt, S., Gething, P. W., Brady, O. J., Messina, J. P., Farlow, A. W., Moyes, C. L., Drake, J. M., Brownstein, J. S., Hoen, A. G., Sankoh, O., et al. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature12060 · Cited by 10,037
Self-citationThe next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N., & Rafaj, P. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y · Cited by 2,791
Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21st Century
Gubler, D. J. (2011) · Tropical Medicine and Health · doi:10.2149/tmh.2011-s05 · Cited by 1,098
Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C
Gasser, T., Guivarch, C., Tachiiri, K., Jones, C. D., & Ciais, P. (2015) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms8958 · Cited by 374
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Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control
Rocklöv, J., & Dubrow, R. (2020) · Nature Immunology · doi:10.1038/s41590-020-0648-y · Cited by 746
Colón-González, F. J., Sewe, M. O., Tompkins, A. M., Sjödin, H., Casallas, A., Rocklöv, J., Caminade, C., & Lowe, R. (2021) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00132-7 · Cited by 455
The Global Expansion of Dengue: How Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes Enabled the First Pandemic Arbovirus
Brady, O. J., & Hay, S. I. (2020) · Annual Review of Entomology · doi:10.1146/annurev-ento-011019-024918 · Cited by 405
Self-citationClimate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease
Semenza, J. C., Rocklöv, J., & Ebi, K. L. (2022) · Infectious Diseases and Therapy · doi:10.1007/s40121-022-00647-3 · Cited by 346
Aldrich, C., Leroux–Roels, I., Huang, K. B., Bica, M. A., Loeliger, E., Schoenborn-Kellenberger, O., Walz, L., Leroux-Roels, G., von Sonnenburg, F., & Oostvogels, L. (2021) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.12.070 · Cited by 204
Metadata
- Authors
- Messina, J. P., Brady, O. J., Golding, N., Kraemer, M. U. G., Wint, G. R. W., Ray, S. E., Pigott, D. M., Shearer, F. M., Johnson, K., Earl, L., Marczak, L. B., Shirude, S., Davis Weaver, N., Gilbert, M., Velayudhan, R., Jones, P., Jaenisch, T., Scott, T. W., Reiner, R. C., & Hay, S. I.
- Venue
- Nature Microbiology
- Published
- 2019-06-10
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 1508-1515
- ISSN
- 2058-5276 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2952094509
- Cited by
- 1,386
- References
- 6
- FWCI
- 107.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- The paper
- Messina, J. P., Brady, O. J., Golding, N., Kraemer, M. U. G., Wint, G. R. W., Ray, S. E., Pigott, D. M., Shearer, F. M., Johnson, K., Earl, L., Marczak, L. B., Shirude, S., Davis Weaver, N., Gilbert, M., Velayudhan, R., Jones, P., Jaenisch, T., Scott, T. W., Reiner, R. C., & Hay, S. I. (2019). The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue. Nature Microbiology. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
